AtlanticWx Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ji said: Wow what a flip by one of our most optimistic Mets isn't more NS a good thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 24, 2023 Author Share Posted December 24, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: No kidding It can work at times, in both Nina and Nino, but can also be cold/dry and too progressive. We often see a -EPO/-NAO combo advertised by guidance at range, but it never seems to quite work out simultaneously. Maybe this time.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 8 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: isn't more NS a good thing? 5 minutes ago, WSWL said: Yes Well.. It's complicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 1 minute ago, WSWL said: Isn’t it always?? It's relative. There are simpler, clear paths to victory. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: I’m not quite ready to say I’d be surprised if we’re totally skunked through say January 10, but we’re heading in that direction. lol I was not very eloquent here and everyone interpreted this as the opposite of what I meant 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 3 hours ago, Deck Pic said: That's january 9th. It's not even christmas eve yet How much more delayed are we now? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 48 minutes ago, CAPE said: Well.. It's complicated. We simply just can't know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: lol I was not very eloquent here and everyone interpreted this as the opposite of what I meant It was probably the egg nog clouding your words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 lol I was not very eloquent here and everyone interpreted this as the opposite of what I meant I interpreted it as a good thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 7 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: How much more delayed are we now? A few weeks ago it was supposed to be around the 28th, so looks like it was only pushed back by less than 2 weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 GFS says take to the WV mountains this week if you can’t wait another few weeks for snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: We simply just can't know We cannot at the present time. Eventually, we will. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Nothing is delayed if there never really was a definitive date and how could there ever be a definitive date if an ever changing model run is your guide? Agendas and a desire to be first is our enemy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 A few weeks ago it was supposed to be around the 28th, so looks like it was only pushed back by less than 2 weeks.I may be misremembering but 28th was a long shot chance as the pattern was changing. Real first window was always the 4th/6th, which is too far away to know anything. If we make it to mid-January with nothing but hopes for winter to be saved in February… that’s a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterFire Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 18 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: How much more delayed are we now? Pattern change still on track for the next couple days, so not even a little bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Some rule of thumbs for novice forecasters: Not the CAPE's, WxUSAF's PSU, etc. of the world Days 2.5-6.0 This is the time when major storms come into focus; look for run-to-run trends. Days 6-8 To avoid whiplash, look at the surface and 500 hPa presentations of the suite of operational runs once a day giving equal weights to the 00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC runs. Days 8-10: Look at the ensembles only (surface and 500 hPa). Are any storms showing up? When? Are at least a few producing snow? Days 10-12: Look at the 500 hPa pattern of the ensembles; snow totals are meaningless at this range (too much weight for climatology and outliers). Is this a pattern that could produce wintry weather? Days 12 and beyond: Is this a long-wave pattern when long-term forecasts are possible or is it best just to go with climatology adjusted for the base state (El Nino or La Nina)? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 14 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: GFS says take to the WV mountains this week if you can’t wait another few weeks for snow. Few weeks…or many. We are running out of weeks. Please say few…couple is too hopeful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Just now, BristowWx said: Few weeks…or many. We are running out of weeks. Please say few…couple is too hopeful. I mean per the CWG the region's prime snow window runs roughly from MLK day to President's day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Just now, BristowWx said: Few weeks…or many. We are running out of weeks. Please say few…couple is too hopeful. Panic room about to go full blown operational in the next 10 days if we don’t get something. Gotta have at least a region wide WWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 28 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: lol I was not very eloquent here and everyone interpreted this as the opposite of what I meant Don't worry not only does Ji not know where he lives he doesn't possess any reading comprehension 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 12 minutes ago, WinterFire said: Pattern change still on track for the next couple days, so not even a little bit. Great. Thanks for update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 6 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Panic room about to go full blown operational in the next 10 days if we don’t get something. Gotta have at least a region wide WWA If I wasn’t drunk on 120 min IPAs I would in fact be panicked. Now I am slightly amused 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: If I wasn’t drunk on 120 min IPAs I would in fact be panicked. Now I am slightly amused Merry Christmas 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: If I wasn’t drunk on 120 min IPAs I would in fact be panicked. Now I am slightly amused Damn, St Bernardus clouding my reading. I first read your last sentence as "Now I am slightly aroused". 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Merry Christmas Ho ho f*** ho. Just kidding. You too brother! It’ll snow when we don’t care anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterFire Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 17 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Great. Thanks for update Any time, happy to help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 48 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: How much more delayed are we now? Not delayed. Was just pointing out the silliness of analyzing Jan 9th model output on 12/24. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 18z tries for January 4th/5th. A little to warm though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 The complication of NS shortwaves digging south. This is really close to something good, but wave interactions/ timing is so critical. A tad too much/too soon. All our hopes and dreams are dependent on the random nature of it lol. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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