psuhoffman Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 1 minute ago, mattie g said: I know what to say: This is a model run. This hasn’t actually happened yet (shock horror!). We were discussing that model run though. My point was on that simulation we got everything to go right wrt the track of that clipper and it just didn’t matter because the boundary temps were too warm anyways. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 ICON gets some snow out this way with next weekends system. GFS says no. But I wouldnt be shocked to see a little white rain out of that one in the favored areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 5 minutes ago, WSWL said: That’s because it’s warm leading up to it. There isn’t any cold following the first storm which is rare. Is it the pattern or CC? Probably going to need a few more winters to get the answer. But I will say if we get a big gulf low coming up the coast with a nice cold high in Quebec and it rains this winter. We have our answer. I know it can still snow if everything goes right. The issue is most of our snow comes from marginal flawed setups. And lately most marginal situations seem to be tipping the same way and it’s not the way we want. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Am I wrong to think that the SLP off the SE coast would have come further north if a badly timed piece of energy at h5 didn't come flying into MN at 216 on the 12z GFS? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Which then deepens to 981mb offshore at 234 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 This should be a snowstorm in the Shenandoah Valley in late December. Northerly winds and a nice 500 pass. Just sad. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 How the frick is it not snowing next Saturday morning with the 540 line in southern Georgia? Come on! Seriously? Fine—I’ll consider a hybrid, but not going full electric...yet. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 1 minute ago, Scraff said: How the frick is it not snowing next Saturday morning with the 540 line in southern Georgia? Come on! Seriously? Fine—I’ll consider a hybrid, but not going full electric...yet. Warm air trapped at the lower levels and warm air seeping in off the Atlantic at 2,000-5,000 feet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Warm air trapped at the lower levels and warm air seeping in off the Atlantic at 2,000-5,000 feet?Yeah it’s not even really close. I get annoyed when it’s 33 and not snowing… when it’s 50 I can get over it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Am I wrong to think that the SLP off the SE coast would have come further north if a badly timed piece of energy at h5 didn't come flying into MN at 216 on the 12z GFS?I’m starting to see why we need blocking…otherwise, we keep having to deal with these vorts flying around to the north mucking everything up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 I am not buying this on January 3rd, 2024, this is our storm. I think that is further west. I am just thinking back to runs from last week when this was closer to the coast too. I think the GFS is beginning to correct this look further west as a northern stream system tugs it back to the east coast. I am interested in this storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 If the 12z GFS went out another day, would that h5 look be good or bad for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 16 minutes ago, yoda said: If the 12z GFS went out another day, would that h5 look be good or bad for us? I’d say bad, it just looks too far west. edit: it is one run though, so I’m not concerned! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 24, 2023 Author Share Posted December 24, 2023 I’m 100% certain things are getting ready to get fun 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 24, 2023 Author Share Posted December 24, 2023 Some of these posts are awful. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’m 100% certain things are getting ready to get fun I can't disagree starting with that storm being further west on January 3rd. We look for the correction west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 48 minutes ago, yoda said: If the 12z GFS went out another day, would that h5 look be good or bad for us? Lowering heights over AK https://ibb.co/X7kTSx8 Taken literally, we would be about to go warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 There is a definite trend in recent model cycles for more significant NS energy to dig southward and deepen as the EPO ridge amplifies. This has a couple potential impacts on our period of interest- it brings colder air southward, and it interacts with the waves tracking across the southern US. Depending on the timing, this could mean damping or 'squashing' waves, or possibly phasing with- which could be a good outcome if it happens at the right time. Tracking for early Jan has gotten a bit more interesting lol. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Is a Friday event dead east of the mountains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Opinion at the end of the GEFS run? Does not look good to me. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Just now, Weather Will said: Opinion at the end of the GEFS run? Does not look good to me. In January, that N. Pacific/GOA trough correlates with a trough in the EC. Hopefully it can build further, that's one run with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Opinion at the end of the GEFS run? Does not look good to me. I see a -AO, -NAO, and a ridge over AK. Pretty damn good HL look. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Opinion at the end of the GEFS run? Does not look good to me. That's january 9th. It's not even christmas eve yet 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 1 minute ago, CAPE said: I see a -AO, -NAO, and a ridge over AK. But don't we lose the PNA? Where is the cold air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: That's january 9th. It's not even christmas eve yet Yeah a couple more hours, it should look better at 18z 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Stratwarm has turned into torchturd. 2 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Just now, Weather Will said: But don't we lose the PNA? Where is the cold air? This has been discussed over and over. A +PNA is not necessarily a persistent feature in a Nino. Just as likely for there to be a -PNA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 13 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Stratwarm has turned into torchturd. The last 3 have occurred with a -pna/+epo when they downwelled. It should be interesting to see what this one does, it is a Stronger Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: This has been discussed over and over. A +PNA is not necessarily a persistent feature in a Nino. Just as likely for there to be a -PNA. About 75/25 likely to see +PNA in a January El Nino. https://ibb.co/qCDbmYw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 This isn't so bad https://ibb.co/2FK2CjN kind of a big change 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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