Dec/Jan Medium/Long Range Disco

[nj2va]

1 hour ago, snowfan said:

Growing consensus that the ski areas will have a half decent holiday weekend. That’s nice to see for a change. Euro has a fresh 6-10 on the ground with temps in the teens for Canaan/Snowshoe on NYE morning. Less for wisp/7 springs but still wintry.

Yeah, first time in the last couple of years it won’t be 55 and raining all holiday week at the MD/WV ski resorts. Great to see for their business. 

[CAPE]

Impressive -NAO towards the end of the 6z GEFS. The less favorable look on the Pacific side should be brief. Already looks like the Aleutian low is redeveloping with a bit of a ridge building out in front.

[aldie 22]

7 hours ago, Ji said:

If any storm in early January is rain....it might be historically negative on this forum

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk
 

I'm quite sure you will ensure that happens 

[aldie 22]

7 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

We get a direct hit from a clipper with sub 540 thickness and it’s just rain. I don’t know what to say. 

As witnessed you clearly found something to say.

[blizzardmeiser]

50 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Impressive -NAO towards the end of the 6z GEFS. The less favorable look on the Pacific side should be brief. Already looks like the Aleutian low is redeveloping with a bit of a ridge building out in front.

Looks good. We all expected the real primary threat of snow to start coming later in January into February. 

[mdhokie]

1 hour ago, snowfan said:

Growing consensus that the ski areas will have a half decent holiday weekend. That’s nice to see for a change. Euro has a fresh 6-10 on the ground with temps in the teens for Canaan/Snowshoe on NYE morning. Less for wisp/7 springs but still wintry.

Huh? Maybe Snowshoe but I don't track WVA weather :). Western MD has had snow but it melted a day or two later. The last chance we had forecast was 4-8 and ended up with 2. I skied Wisp opening day Dec 15 but they've only managed two small trail additions since then. The next 5 days is 40s and rain. We plan on heading up Friday, hoping for something white but not expecting much at this point. 

Timberline has much better skiing conditions but only due to their brand new snowmaking system. They received a bit more natural but again it melts a couple days later. 

[Weather Will]

Latest MJO.  After going through 1-2 heads back into null phase rather than the torch phases.

[Terpeast]

I suspect gfs is too warm at the surface for Jan 2, euro is colder. But too far out for these details. Still keeping an eye on

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, WSWL said:

Hopefully just temporary. But punting the whole month of December and now looking to lose part of January is going to stink 

The crappy pac is a temporary response to the jet retraction and mjo traversing the MC. It won’t last long as it’s in conflict with the enso. Note even with temporary Nina mjo forcing the central pac ridge is muted compared to recent years. This won’t be a case of endless -pna. By the time that gets here we will see the other side. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, aldie 22 said:

As witnessed you clearly found something to say.

You’re right everything’s fine I’m just imagining our snow drought. 

[TSG]

13 minutes ago, mdhokie said:

Huh? Maybe Snowshoe but I don't track WVA weather :). Western MD has had snow but it melted a day or two later. The last chance we had forecast was 4-8 and ended up with 2. I skied Wisp opening day Dec 15 but they've only managed two small trail additions since then. The next 5 days is 40s and rain. We plan on heading up Friday, hoping for something white but not expecting much at this point. 

Timberline has much better skiing conditions but only due to their brand new snowmaking system. They received a bit more natural but again it melts a couple days later. 

Canaan and Timberline have about 1000' of extra elevation over Deep Creek/Wisp which helps a lot when temps are marginal. Those resorts almost always maintain better snowpack.

[WxUSAF]

17 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Latest MJO.  After going through 1-2 heads back into null phase rather than the torch phases.

Nino phase 3 in January is actually a pretty good look for us.

[Paleocene]

This is off topic slightly but for all those who look at the LR op runs for hints of blue. I'm visiting relatives in downeast Maine for the holiday (where its also too warm to snow right now). A storm has been predicted for days to bring rain and wind up here Weds/Thurs, which is not good because some people still don't have power due to last week's windstorm. My in-laws had no power for four days last week (luckily they have a good generator).

Anyway, this was yesterday's 6z run valid early thursday morning, with the low crashing into the coast after coming up the gulf of maine:

 

and 24 hours later, valid same time: 

 

 

Point being, even inside 144 hours, the positions of lows can be off by 200 miles! This low may end up scooting east way off Cape Cod, and we'll get nothing. Which would be welcome up here.

 

[psuhoffman]

Two things can be true. I’m still very bullish on snow this season. But I am also still seeing the same signs of climo degradation.  The latter doesn’t mean I’m saying it won’t snow. Maybe we get 40” instead of 50” though. And because I love snow so much it frustrates me when I see even a coating being “stolen” compared to the climo baseline I grew up associating as “normal”. 
 

Take this example. I’ve been visiting a close friend in Vermont. We were discussing the similarity in the recent pattern to 1998 except adjusted for 25 years of warming. It made no difference for DC. They were rain in 1998 and rain now. But Vermont was crushed with snow in all those storms that season.  But last week that perfect track storm was rain all the way into Canada. And again in a couple days the next coastal will be rain up here.  And before someone says but pac puke, that didn’t used to matter at 2000 feet in Vermont!  If you had a 988 low off the benchmark it didn’t matter what the airmass was it was gonna snow here. 
 

Does that mean they aren’t going to get a ton of snow this winter.  Of course not. It will still snow plenty. But that doesn’t change the clear indisputable warning signs flashing that it’s getting harder to snow. Both points can exist simultaneously. And I choose to acknowledge them both. 

[Terpeast]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Two things can be true. I’m still very bullish on snow this season. But I am also still seeing the same signs of climo degradation.  The latter doesn’t mean I’m saying it won’t snow. Maybe we get 40” instead of 50” though. And because I love snow so much it frustrates me when I see even a coating being “stolen” compared to the climo baseline I grew up associating as “normal”. 
 

Take this example. I’ve been visiting a close friend in Vermont. We were discussing the similarity in the recent pattern to 1998 except adjusted for 25 years of warming. It made no difference for DC. They were rain in 1998 and rain now. But Vermont was crushed with snow in all those storms that season.  But last week that perfect track storm was rain all the way into Canada. And again in a couple days the next coastal will be rain up here.  And before someone says but pac puke, that didn’t used to matter at 2000 feet in Vermont!  If you had a 988 low off the benchmark it didn’t matter what the airmass was it was gonna snow here. 
 

Does that mean they aren’t going to get a ton of snow this winter.  Of course not. It will still snow plenty. But that doesn’t change the clear indisputable warning signs flashing that it’s getting harder to snow. Both points can exist simultaneously. And I choose to acknowledge them both. 

That’s what I think, we (not just us but everyone) get a CC penalty against our overall snow. For now I think its somewhere around 15-20% but may grow bigger. 

I’m not changing my outlook, but if we end up getting nothing from the Jan 1-10 window of opportunity, then I think my 15% chance of a blockbuster season is off the table. Still have a shot at above climo. Impressive signal of SSWE on all models, so things could get fun mid-Jan onwards

[WesternFringe]

3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GFS...Day 6, congrats higher elevations!

I never gave up on this window.  We would gladly take another 3” wet snow storm out here.  Counting days with legit flurries, this would be the 5th time it has snowed in a month if it verifies, which has already been more snow than last year!  
 

That said, I would rather this be a 3” snow for the whole subforum with entrenched cold in place, but alas the weather doesn’t care what I prefer.

[WxUSAF]

 

[clskinsfan]

24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Both points can exist simultaneously. And I choose to acknowledge them both. 

Anyone who doesnt needs to start paying better attention to their own backyard. All of us have felt the changes. I still think we end up above normal this season. Simply because I think we end up with at least one bomb. But what is the "new" snow normal going to be in 25 years?

[clskinsfan]

7 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

Counting days with legit flurries,

Maybe I need to start doing this as well.

[WesternFringe]

7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Maybe I need to start doing this as well.

When it snows for hours in the morning and hours at night driving around, it is super pretty and makes it feel like winter and is exciting to me.  I grew up in upstate NY and had lots of days with flurries like that.  

Even without accumulation, snow can be fun.  I record every time something frozen falls from the air in my logbook on my phone, like on 12/18 when we had flurries off and on all day and driving at night looked like hitting warp speed in the sci fi movies.  It was awesome!

[konksw]

While the climo surely is getting more challenging for the DC area, it’s still plenty fine for snow in Boston and I believe DC has clocked more snow for December 2023. With rain forecasted this week in Montreal it’s hard for me to get too down on our current situation because the northeast region isn’t quite working for snow. Just hope things get more favorable in the new year. 

[snownut]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Two things can be true. I’m still very bullish on snow this season. But I am also still seeing the same signs of climo degradation.  The latter doesn’t mean I’m saying it won’t snow. Maybe we get 40” instead of 50” though. And because I love snow so much it frustrates me when I see even a coating being “stolen” compared to the climo baseline I grew up associating as “normal”. 
 

Take this example. I’ve been visiting a close friend in Vermont. We were discussing the similarity in the recent pattern to 1998 except adjusted for 25 years of warming. It made no difference for DC. They were rain in 1998 and rain now. But Vermont was crushed with snow in all those storms that season.  But last week that perfect track storm was rain all the way into Canada. And again in a couple days the next coastal will be rain up here.  And before someone says but pac puke, that didn’t used to matter at 2000 feet in Vermont!  If you had a 988 low off the benchmark it didn’t matter what the airmass was it was gonna snow here. 
 

Does that mean they aren’t going to get a ton of snow this winter.  Of course not. It will still snow plenty. But that doesn’t change the clear indisputable warning signs flashing that it’s getting harder to snow. Both points can exist simultaneously. And I choose to acknowledge them both. 

My 9th full-time PNW winter since moving from Aldie VA. Actually working part-time at Mt Bachelor this season.  Several employees on the crew have worked on the Mountain more than 20 years. The same issue here as you describe in VT. Cascades will still get snow but the rain snow line has been exceptionally high this season and these oldtimers have not experienced any season start like this. Checked in another guy yesterday that said its his 31st straight season skiing here. He said he remembers only 1 other season this bad.  (would be interested to know what year? just didn't have time to find out)  Good luck back there.  ☃️ 

[WxUSAF]

 

[H2O]

Not enough blue for Ji

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Nino phase 3 in January is actually a pretty good look for us.

 

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

Anyone who doesnt needs to start paying better attention to their own backyard. All of us have felt the changes. I still think we end up above normal this season. Simply because I think we end up with at least one bomb. But what is the "new" snow normal going to be in 25 years?

1/3 of MET winter is gone and I don't have even a dusting to show for it.  Add to that this location received 5" the last 2 years combined.   I know what that normal already is.

[MDScienceTeacher]

3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Someone was talking last night here about how you can't just look at an h5 map blues and reds and assume what the relative weather is going to be. Case in point wrt 6z gfs....looked at h5 and 500v (almost always look here first) and assumed a relative quiet run post Jan 4. However, one of the better fantasy threat systems of the lr shows up on the surface maps after the 6th especially wrt this subforum. 

Also I don’t understand why someone has any more confidence in a 264 hour h5 map then they do a surface map at the same tome period.  I get it, models are more skilled with longer waves but fantasy is fantasy and anything over 192 hours is fantasyland 

[MDScienceTeacher]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Two things can be true. I’m still very bullish on snow this season. But I am also still seeing the same signs of climo degradation.  The latter doesn’t mean I’m saying it won’t snow. Maybe we get 40” instead of 50” though. And because I love snow so much it frustrates me when I see even a coating being “stolen” compared to the climo baseline I grew up associating as “normal”. 
 

Take this example. I’ve been visiting a close friend in Vermont. We were discussing the similarity in the recent pattern to 1998 except adjusted for 25 years of warming. It made no difference for DC. They were rain in 1998 and rain now. But Vermont was crushed with snow in all those storms that season.  But last week that perfect track storm was rain all the way into Canada. And again in a couple days the next coastal will be rain up here.  And before someone says but pac puke, that didn’t used to matter at 2000 feet in Vermont!  If you had a 988 low off the benchmark it didn’t matter what the airmass was it was gonna snow here. 
 

Does that mean they aren’t going to get a ton of snow this winter.  Of course not. It will still snow plenty. But that doesn’t change the clear indisputable warning signs flashing that it’s getting harder to snow. Both points can exist simultaneously. And I choose to acknowledge them both. 

That storm would have been rain during peak climb.. even in to Vermont and New Hampshire.  There wasn’t an antecedent cold air mass anywhere on the eastern seaboard. With the same set up you would get the same outcome.  Maybe elevation would do a little better but I don’t think people realize how much warm air was pulled in from the that storm. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

That’s what I think, we (not just us but everyone) get a CC penalty against our overall snow. For now I think its somewhere around 15-20% but may grow bigger. 

I’m not changing my outlook, but if we end up getting nothing from the Jan 1-10 window of opportunity, then I think my 15% chance of a blockbuster season is off the table. Still have a shot at above climo. Impressive signal of SSWE on all models, so things could get fun mid-Jan onwards

I agree with the CC point. Wrt this winter I want to get more snow from this next window also but I wouldn’t rule out still going epic even if it doesn’t start until late January.  Week SPV, Nino, -qbo the ingredients are there to go on an absolute tear if we can just time things up.  We can hit climo in one storm in a Nino.  Then all we need are a couple other hits and we get into memorable season territory.  1958, 1966, 1987, 2010 all had epic runs post Jan 20.  So long as we see the seeds being laid, nao going negative mainly…I think we are still ok  

 

7 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

Also I don’t understand why someone has any more confidence in a 264 hour h5 map then they do a surface map at the same tome period.  I get it, models are more skilled with longer waves but fantasy is fantasy and anything over 192 hours is fantasyland 

One reason is that NWP is better at picking out the major long wave flow at range than discreet surface features. Another is that we can look at an ensemble mean to get an even better idea of the long wave pattern but you can’t do that as effectively with surface features. Plus if you are skilled you’re often better off figuring out what should happen given the long wave pattern at range than relying on the surface details of nwp. 

[mattie g]

10 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

We get a direct hit from a clipper with sub 540 thickness and it’s just rain. I don’t know what to say. 

I know what to say:

This is a model run. This hasn’t actually happened yet (shock horror!).