Dec/Jan Medium/Long Range Disco

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, eduggs said:

I was merely pointing out that even when MR or LR model ensemble forecasts verify a high degree of accuracy with respect to the general continental-scale height field, there is typically too much uncertainty at that range to make regional weather forecasts. This was in reference to someone suggesting a 5-day old GEFS chart matched tomorrow's height field pretty well... and also references from a week ago suggesting this period could produce a wintry event.

Snapshot anomaly charts should never be used by themselves for synoptic forecasting. IMO they are massively overused and the result of an increase in interest in climate indices and LR forecasting.

Guidance did nail this coming pattern with exceptional accuracy and people who identified that wave as a threat were overly optimistic. That’s all. 

[Ji]

If any storm in early January is rain....it might be historically negative on this forum

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[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Side note…I haven’t looked at the stats of the gfs, but it doesn’t tease as often anymore. It hasn’t showed much in the way of blues for 2 years now and it’s turned out to be pretty accurate on that lol. It’s also schooled the nam during the summer on multiple occasions by not showing much precip up this way, so if it’s showing blue (at range, not this far out), it deserves attention.

I don’t know objectively if it’s much more accurate overall but they did correct its crazy cold bias that plagues earlier versions of the FV2 core gfs. 

[Ji]

Pretty impressive that the GFS has been honing in on the Jan 4-6 period for our first "real" winter threat for quite awhile now.  00z GFS continues that tonight
Ends up being a rainer for most... but the threat window is there and that's all we can take for now

The Dec 10 storm gave us more snow

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[yoda]

Just now, Ji said:

The Dec 10 storm gave us more snow

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The ridge out west is a bit too far west so it allows the SLP to track closer to us. 

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, Ji said:

If any storm in early January is rain....it might be historically negative on this forum

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We get a direct hit from a clipper with sub 540 thickness and it’s just rain. I don’t know what to say. 

[yoda]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We get a direct hit from a clipper with sub 540 thickness and it’s just rain. I don’t know what to say. 

[psuhoffman]

I’ll be honest I’m trying to be optimistic and I do very much think despite what I’m about to say it will snow a lot this year given the pattern. But my god I keep seeing things that are hard to swallow. Like a sub 540 rain clipper. Or layer in the rum when there is a direct flow from the North Pole over us and it never gets that cold and then as soon as the next wave approaches the cold gets routed instantly and a ridge pops to kingdom come in 24 hours. 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I’ll be honest I’m trying to be optimistic and I do very much think despite what I’m about to say it will snow a lot this year given the pattern. But my god I keep seeing things that are hard to swallow. Like a sub 540 rain clipper. Or layer in the rum when there is a direct flow from the North Pole over is and it never gets that cold and then as soon as the next wave approaches the cold gets routed instantly and a ridge pops to kingdom come in 24 hours. 

I was gonna fix this but thought no it’s right 

[yoda]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I’ll be honest I’m trying to be optimistic and I do very much think despite what I’m about to say it will snow a lot this year given the pattern. But my god I keep seeing things that are hard to swallow. Like a sub 540 rain clipper. Or layer in the rum when there is a direct flow from the North Pole over is and it never gets that cold and then as soon as the next wave approaches the cold gets routed instantly and a ridge pops to kingdom come in 24 hours. 

[AtlanticWx]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’ll be honest I’m trying to be optimistic and I do very much think despite what I’m about to say it will snow a lot this year given the pattern. But my god I keep seeing things that are hard to swallow. Like a sub 540 rain clipper. Or layer in the rum when there is a direct flow from the North Pole over us and it never gets that cold and then as soon as the next wave approaches the cold gets routed instantly and a ridge pops to kingdom come in 24 hours. 

fwiw i think the sub 540 rain clipper is j because of all the pac puke still lingering around, but also j AGW yeah

[WinterWxLuvr]

29th

[midatlanticweather]

That model run was a bunch of crap! LOL! I think there is a lot of model confusion. I mean, it may be bad in the end, but it obviously has some work to do to figure out what is happening. I think this is a given from the board discussion, but nothing looks right! Ensembles may help

 

[RedSky]

54 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’ll be honest I’m trying to be optimistic and I do very much think despite what I’m about to say it will snow a lot this year given the pattern. But my god I keep seeing things that are hard to swallow. Like a sub 540 rain clipper. Or layer in the rum when there is a direct flow from the North Pole over us and it never gets that cold and then as soon as the next wave approaches the cold gets routed instantly and a ridge pops to kingdom come in 24 hours. 

Many layers of rum is right this winter, like after GFS runs like this for example

[Jebman]

This topic is unrelenting hilarity. 

[RedSky]

Hey bartendress another layer of rum for everybody in the room Merry Christmas!

[fujiwara79]

well to be fair, there's a low in the great lakes that wrecks the surface before the sub 540 clipper gets here.  the clipper also tracks right over us which isn't really the ideal track.  although it's been so long since we've had a clipper, it's just nice to see one, even if it's a showery clipper.

[yoda]

Didnt do much... but that was an interesting end to the 00z EURO

[brooklynwx99]

2 hours ago, fujiwara79 said:

well to be fair, there's a low in the great lakes that wrecks the surface before the sub 540 clipper gets here.  the clipper also tracks right over us which isn't really the ideal track.  although it's been so long since we've had a clipper, it's just nice to see one, even if it's a showery clipper.

yeah it's the crappy antecedent airmass and the fact that the low tracks overhead, wouldn't think too much into it

[Ji]

The euro snow charts finally has me in the 3 inch mean!

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[CAPE]

0z Euro partially phases 3 pieces of energy under an anticyclonic wave break, popping a surface low that scoots eastward just to our SE around the 2nd. Verbatim a few inches of snow for southern VA. Same timeframe as the GFS clipper. 6z GFS is trying but just not cold enough for the lowlands. Develops a coastal low but too far offshore. Definitely something to keep an eye on- could be a sneaky threat for this window.

[yoda]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

0z Euro partially phases 3 pieces of energy under an anticyclonic wave break, popping a surface low that scoots eastward just to our SE around the 2nd. Verbatim a few inches of snow for southern VA. Same timeframe as the GFS clipper. 6z GFS is trying but just not cold enough for the lowlands. Develops a coastal low but too far offshore. Definitely something to keep an eye on- could be a sneaky threat for this window.

Seems like it makes our Jan 4-6 threat disappear on this run because it slowly bombs out in the ATL

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Seems like it makes our Jan 4-6 threat disappear on this run because it slowly bombs out in the ATL

The signal is still there on the ens means, but notably weaker on the 0z GEFS.

[CAPE]

5 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

29th

The 6z GFS gets some snow into your hood. The airmass sucks unless right underneath that closed low, and even then some elevation is required. If it takes a track similar to the 6z GFS, the western highlands are going to maximize the potential.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GFS...Day 6, congrats higher elevations!

[WxUSAF]

You can take the “woe is us it will never snow again” crap to the NYC subforum.

[snowfan]

32 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GFS...Day 6, congrats higher elevations!

Growing consensus that the ski areas will have a half decent holiday weekend. That’s nice to see for a change. Euro has a fresh 6-10 on the ground with temps in the teens for Canaan/Snowshoe on NYE morning. Less for wisp/7 springs but still wintry.

[CAPE]

There is stronger shortwave energy on the GEFS for Jan 2. Temps look pretty marginal for this period though. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Someone was talking last night here about how you can't just look at an h5 map blues and reds and assume what the relative weather is going to be. Case in point wrt 6z gfs....looked at h5 and 500v (almost always look here first) and assumed a relative quiet run post Jan 4. However, one of the better fantasy threat systems of the lr shows up on the surface maps after the 6th especially wrt this subforum. 

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

There is stronger shortwave energy on the GEFS for Jan 2. Temps look pretty marginal for this period though. 

That low moves into the 50-50 region, and now seeing hints of NS interaction/possible phase for wave on the 4th- 5th.