Ji Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 6 minutes ago, Terpeast said: CMC is following gfs trend for Jan 1… some mischief is showing up on GFS again for later that week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 6 minutes ago, Terpeast said: CMC is following gfs trend for Jan 1… If we can reel this one in, let’s call it the Shrimp Po Boy storm. 2 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 3 hours ago, Brady said: Farts is putting it mildly Fookin' LMAO! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 47 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Listen, hold on the storm talk until I return from Mexico on the 2nd. If you root for a storm and it comes on the 1st, there’s going to be mysterious “server down” messages on the board from like 12/30-1/1. I’m at a bar at DFW waiting on my next flight and Cape’s posts have mitigated the anger that i paid $37 for a shrimp po boy and a beer. I don’t need this stress worrying about 1/1. Where is Chuck and his fever dream posts when you need them? See…I fired up r/mid_atlantic_wx for just such occasions when the server craps out unexpectedly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Gonna see some severe arctic outbreaks show up on models come Mid Jan if this is right . 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Gonna see some severe arctic outbreaks show up on models come Mid Jan if this is right .And boom look what shows up at the end of the model run… . 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 6z gfs squashed everything a little too much. 12z phases northern stream a little too much. Average them together = boom. 10 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 3 hours ago, WxUSAF said: We had a few small events in 14-15 prior to mid-February, but people here were absolutely losing their minds because SNE was having an absolute parade of KUs and we were smoking cirrus. The 3-4 weeks starting at Valentine’s Day changed our opinion quickly of that winter. That was the year SNE had so much snow that massive icicles were plummeting from buildings downtown in BOS wreaking all shades of havoc. Then the worm tuned and we got a good deal of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, Heisy said: And boom look what shows up at the end of the model run… . If that happens it's going to get pretty cold even in Austin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 14 minutes ago, Heisy said: Gonna see some severe arctic outbreaks show up on models come Mid Jan if this is right . That’s a cold look on the geps today 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Arctic outbreaks suck for snow. Hard pass. 9 1 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Just now, Allsnow said: That’s a cold look on the geps today those BN heights over the Atlantic are great. confluence and blocking signal 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 18 minutes ago, Jebman said: If that happens it's going to get pretty cold even in Austin. And dry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Just now, EastCoast NPZ said: And dry. This. I never root for crazy cold - just dry and then inevitably a warmup is rain. Just…no. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 10 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: And dry. All I am asking for, is some rain. You guys in the East can have about 48 inches of snow from a KU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 gefs looking blocky 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 4 hours ago, Bob Chill said: 13-14 was kinda wall to wall. Early Dec produced (very good N-W). Late Dec got super warm and freaked everyone out. By first week of Jan it completely flipped and we got a moderate cold storm (Jan 7th maybe?). History after that... I'll never forget the all snow/cold west track... super anomalous. 2015 was an epic disaster until Vday. Pure insanity in SNE. Was hard to watch lol I actually consider 2015 to be wall to wall. We had a coating in November (I was living in Bethesda at the time), several inches from (I think) a clipper on Jan 6 (that might be the cold storm you're referring to, though I think DC didn't do as well with that one), and then a couple of minor events on Jan 21 and Jan 26. 2014 started early, too, with that Dec 8 Germantown-area system, but we did have to wait until Jan 21 to get the first snow-drought buster (which followed the 2011-2013 situation that's similar to the one we're in now). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 The GEPS is the fastest with the pattern progression, likely too fast, but by the end you can already see the Aleutian low resuming and the central pac ridge shifting back into to epo domain. By the time the east warms the seeds of the next cold shot are already loading. This time with a -nao and a colder regime to start. We very well might snow with this initial favorable window Jan 1-6 but I’m still confident in the progression that when things reload mid January that’s when it gets REALLY good. 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 16 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: gefs looking blocky Hobbyist analysis here, but it looks like a zonal flow develops around that time on the GEFS...which is probably ideal at this point to try to put a halt to these nw tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Very strong signal for Jan 6-7 on gefs. Makes sense. Last wave before a temporary warm up. That’s often the one for us. Not worth digging into maps or over analyzing but it’s about as strong a snow signal as you will see on that kind of lead. 16 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 1 hour ago, Heisy said: And boom look what shows up at the end of the model run… . Epic -nao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Epic -nao. Yea we have been lacking this block the storms from coming straight at us please and more importantly slow the dam pattern down to phase a few storms to our east and southeast, but not too far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Epic -nao. Not to mention your beloved avocado. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Just now, cbmclean said: Not to mention your beloved avocado. Alright it's clear I'm gonna have to sue for copyright infringement....avocado be mine invention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Wow!! Both the ECM and GEM give much of Augusta County 2 inches of rain during the next 168 hrs.. This Nino is producing. Many Valley folks have been praying for a wet Winter. December is making a solid contribution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 5 hours ago, Bob Chill said: 13-14 was kinda wall to wall. Early Dec produced (very good N-W). Late Dec got super warm and freaked everyone out. By first week of Jan it completely flipped and we got a moderate cold storm (Jan 7th maybe?). History after that... I'll never forget the all snow/cold west track... super anomalous. 2015 was an epic disaster until Vday. Pure insanity in SNE. Was hard to watch lol 2013-14 is my favorite season by far. From January on it was wonderful. Meanwhile 2015 was an epic disaster. That’s how The Panic Room™ was established. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 1 hour ago, 87storms said: Hobbyist analysis here, but it looks like a zonal flow develops around that time on the GEFS...which is probably ideal at this point to try to put a halt to these nw tracks. That is not a zonal flow. There is a pronounced ridge in western Canada and some troughing out west. Zonal flow would look something like this: https://mattsweatherrapport.blogspot.com/2017/11/zonal-flow-and-shortwaves-why-we-havent.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Nice signal on the EPS for the 7th. HP ridging south from eastern Canada with LP off the Maritimes, LP along the Gulf states with moisture streaming northeastward. 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Pretty classic looks on the means for the 6-7th. Although there won't be a sustained block in place, the timing looks good with predecessor waves lowering heights in the 50-50 region and building h5 heights near GL overtop. That should place surface HP in a favorable position that allows a northerly flow into a developing storm tracking northward along the east coast. The -EPO/TPV combo will have cooled central/eastern Canada to close to normal temps, so cold enough air for snow(given the track) should be available. Game on baby. 15 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 locked and loaded pattern on all ensembles. when was the last time we had a 2"+ mean on all the ensembles where all the snow falls ~9 days out or further? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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