Shaulov4 Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 10 minutes ago, Ji said: One of the worst gfs runs in an El Niño I’ve ever seen So you mean there are cutters every 5 days and the east coast is torched with 60+ degrees throughout? Cold is coming, opportunities are there. Picture will be clearer with the opportunities mid week next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Next 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Of course when it gets cold enough…can’t find precip in the entire country 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 16 minutes ago, Ji said: One of the worst gfs runs in an El Niño I’ve ever seen Where did the parade of shortwaves go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaulov4 Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Where did the parade of shortwaves go? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, Shaulov4 said: Guess I am not looking at the right stuff. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 I recall early Jan 2010 was cold and dry in eastern regions, in particular Florida very cold relative to normal. Patience was rewarded big time, but almost all of Jan except last 2-3 days were uneventful. El Nino climatology is back-loaded winters, as you know. Would be nice to wring out one moderate snowfall event in early Jan and expect a minor return to mild, seems to be part of deal most times, before better setups begin. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaulov4 Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Guess I am not looking at the right stuff. Lol Yes 500mb is where the shortwaves are at. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Guess I am not looking at the right stuff. Lol They are there but progressive and moisture starved. We need a nice overrunning from TN valley. Steady light snow for long duration. Those have been missing too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 32 minutes ago, Shaulov4 said: The Illuminati got them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Probably the best look we've seen yet for the Jan 1 window. Still has some adjustments to make if we want it to work but that's a look: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Euro has the Jan 1 system....more progressive look headed off the SE coast. CMC is flat and disheveled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 0z GEFS has our storm for the 7th, and before that snows on NC on the 4th. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 0z EPS indications for the 4th and the 7th. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 0z Euro op at the end of the run was snowing on NC into central VA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 That 1/1-1/2 signal is there on the Euro, GFS, CMC. CMC wants to bring a trailing piece of energy through the area just prior after the midweek disturbance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 6z GFS is very close to something for the 4th-5th, then drops the hammer sending a TPV lobe south, pushing the thermal boundary to south Georgia lol. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 6z GEFS has a stronger signal for the 4-5th window. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Probably some of the best runs of the year last night. This is getting close to textbook. Always ways we can fail but I’m starting to gain a lot of confidence we’ll see accumulating snow first 10 days of January.Also, check out the strat as posted by a user on our Philly sub. . 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Here comes the next wave. Gotta love a Nino. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Much stronger signal for a gulf low tracking towards the east coast. Nice surface setup. 9 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Much improved from some of the ensemble runs yesterday, where there was too much interaction too soon between the southern wave and NS vorticity. Such a nice h5 look right there. 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 7 hours ago, Ji said: One of the worst gfs runs in an El Niño I’ve ever seen His posts always age well 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 35 minutes ago, CAPE said: 6z GEFS has a stronger signal for the 4-5th window. The eps really perked up for that timeframe last night 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Sorry for all the good vibe spammage. I'm on my third cup. Very good set of ens runs at 0z and 6z imo, and I kind of liked the 6z GFS op too. Heading outside to spilt firewood and do some pre-Spring yard work. Love mulching in the cold with no bugs. 25 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 21 minutes ago, CAPE said: Much stronger signal for a gulf low tracking towards the east coast. Nice surface setup. Your in top form @CAPE. Appreciate the updates. Not posting as much because I have suffered medical issues and surgery, but your posts cheer me up every morning. I am really hopeful for snowfall in early Jan. Things looking better and better. 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Hope you recover swiftly , frd. and, yea, plus 1 to cape for airing out the room from Ji’s farts overnight. 1 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Yesterday afternoon, the 18z GFS op. made some flawed assumptions IMO that culminated in a major snowstorm for our region around Jan. 6 - 7. IMO, a very erratic track would not survive the test of time and I so stated my opinion. It did not survive the test of time. Period, Stop The period between Dec. 28 - Jan. 10 should be active and produce some snow for most of us. I believe most of us agree or at least hope for this reality. Accurate details are not available at this early date. Early speculation will likely change, but that is ok for those who wish to speculate. I will not criticize those who throw cold water on my ideas. Everyone is entitled to an opinion. Enjoy your life and now I begin a busy day. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 6 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Hope you recover swiftly , frd. and, yea, plus 1 to cape for airing out the room from Ji’s farts overnight. I was so confused. "Worst runs of the season" then this morning it's all rainbows and buttercup. Anyway.. off to have a coffee and a joint. It's a beautiful day to be outside. Thanks CAPE for the updates. Always appreciated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brady Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 17 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The eps really perked up for that timeframe last night It’s a shame your sub forum is the way it is. It’s like a total different vibe there compared to here and the NE sub forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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