Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 38 minutes ago, CAPE said: Latest Euro weeklies. A bit better in the NAO domain for early Jan. Overall, hard to complain about that look. Looks like a smiling pirate with an eye patch. Arrrr, matey, here's your blocking and your southern stream...now get to work on finding some snow! 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 @CAPEIf the pacific pattern retrogrades to the degree guidance is now suggesting we only need the nao to be mediocre. This is a new development. Guidance backed off the nao but then improved the pac to compensate. It’s not quite 2003/2015 levels (both true modoki) but those years overcame a raging positive nao at times. If the pac gets to the look on guidance by New Years a near neutral nao is fine. Just don’t have a strong tpv sitting near Baffin and we’ll be ok with that pac look. It’s not a hecs look but given the Stj could be productive. And who knows you get a well timed 50/50 and Feb 2003 can happen despite a +nao. Get our flow out of the NW with a trough as that STJ is directed at us and I like our chances. I know I’m changing my tune a little on the Nao but I didn’t expect the pac to retrograde as much as guidance is now suggesting. That changes the equation in our favor some. 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @CAPEIf the pacific pattern retrogrades to the degree guidance is now suggesting we only need the nao to be mediocre. This is a new development. Guidance backed off the nao but then improved the pac to compensate. It’s not quite 2003/2015 levels (both true modoki) but those years overcame a raging positive nao at times. If the pac gets to the look on guidance by New Years a near neutral nao is fine. Just don’t have a strong tpv sitting near Baffin and we’ll be ok with that pac look. It’s not a hecs look but given the Stj could be productive. And who knows you get a well timed 50/50 and Feb 2003 can happen despite a +nao. Get our flow out of the NW with a trough as that STJ is directed at us and I like our chances. I know I’m changing my tune a little on the Nao but I didn’t expect the pac to retrograde as much as guidance is now suggesting. That changes the equation in our favor some. i expect another significant blocking spell at some point. probably late in the winter. i’d be surprised if there wasn’t another one 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @CAPEIf the pacific pattern retrogrades to the degree guidance is now suggesting we only need the nao to be mediocre. This is a new development. Guidance backed off the nao but then improved the pac to compensate. It’s not quite 2003/2015 levels (both true modoki) but those years overcame a raging positive nao at times. If the pac gets to the look on guidance by New Years a near neutral nao is fine. Just don’t have a strong tpv sitting near Baffin and we’ll be ok with that pac look. It’s not a hecs look but given the Stj could be productive. And who knows you get a well timed 50/50 and Feb 2003 can happen despite a +nao. Get our flow out of the NW with a trough as that STJ is directed at us and I like our chances. I know I’m changing my tune a little on the Nao but I didn’t expect the pac to retrograde as much as guidance is now suggesting. That changes the equation in our favor some. I'm all in. I do think we will see more -NAO episodes middle to latter part of winter, but I will roll with the more favorable Pacific and a neutral NAO. That combo has worked well in past Ninos and in some scenarios gives a little more breathing room for the lowlands with more cold air available. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said: Yeah, may be a hiccup as it appears to totally dissolve any semblance in the NPAC for that matter. You'd think there'd be one somewhere. It weakens(apparently) but we don't want it to become some deep monster vortex pumping Pacific air into NA either. The NE Pac low is a prominent feature of a Nino, so it wont just 'disappear'. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: i expect another significant blocking spell at some point. probably late in the winter. i’d be surprised if there wasn’t another one I think we’re gonna get a 2-3 week heater at some point, especially if we get SSW-induced blocking in late January or early February. This period starting after Xmas into the first week or two of January is different, but still looks quite promising if we believe the weeklies for now. Strange though, I’d heard it on good authority the Uber pac jet was going to last until early January. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 10 minutes ago, CAPE said: I'm all in. I do think we will see more -NAO episodes middle to latter part of winter, but I will roll with the more favorable Pacific and a neutral NAO. That combo has worked well in past Ninos and in some scenarios gives a little more breathing room for the lowlands with more cold air available. An epo dominant pattern could be more favorable for us in a Nino than a Nina. STJ! If we get a closer regime then do develop true blocking later…away we go! There’s no limit to how good they could get. Lots of ifs there of course but a big win is at least on the table this year for a change. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: I think we’re gonna get a 2-3 week heater at some point, especially if we get SSW-induced blocking in late January or early February. This period starting after Xmas into the first week or two of January is different, but still looks quite promising if we believe the weeklies for now. Strange though, I’d heard it on good authority the Uber pac jet was going to last until early January. These twitter dweebs and the raging Pac jet. Annoying AF. I'm sure they understand the core characteristics of a Nino, but they have their agendas. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 6 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: An epo dominant pattern could be more favorable for us in a Nino than a Nina. STJ! If we get a closer regime then do develop true blocking later…away we go! There’s no limit to how good they could get. Lots of ifs there of course but a big win is at least on the table this year for a change. Yeah it works pretty well in some cases in a Nina, but more so for the immediate coast in a progressive flow regime. In a Nino we get the cold plus the persistent southern waves- just need a bit more timing without a favorable NA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 20 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: i expect another significant blocking spell at some point. probably late in the winter. i’d be surprised if there wasn’t another one Don't Ninos typically favor blocking in the 2nd half of winter, at some point? Not sure how correct that is or how prevalent, but that's my understanding such as it is. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 3 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Don't Ninos typically favor blocking in the 2nd half of winter, at some point? Not sure how correct that is or how prevalent, but that's my understanding such as it is. The only Nino similar to this in terms of strength and composition along with a comparable QBO that didn’t feature extensive blocking was 1992. There are theories why that year was such an anomaly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yeah it works pretty well in some cases in a Nina, but more so for the immediate coast in a progressive flow regime. In a Nino we get the cold plus the persistent southern waves- just need a bit more timing without a favorable NA. i also love seeing the split flow and Pacific wave breaking lead to +PNA. that’s a recipe for big storms 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: The only Nino similar to this in terms of strength and composition along with a comparable QBO that didn’t feature extensive blocking was 1992. There are theories why that year was such an anomaly. Volcanic eruption being one of the theories?? I believe El Chichon erupted in the fall of 1992 as I recall. (Unless you're referring to the winter of 1991-92?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 New CPC has us above average Dec 30-Jan 12 https://ibb.co/6ywLWkH 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Just now, Always in Zugzwang said: Volcanic eruption being one of the theories?? I believe El Chichon erupted in the fall of 1992 as I recall. (Unless you're referring to the winter of 1991-92?) 1991-92. Sorry I tend to refer to winter’s by their Jan/Feb year. It’s was Pinatubo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Just now, psuhoffman said: 1991-92. Sorry I tend to refer to winter’s by their Jan/Feb year. It’s was Pinatubo. No problem...totally see why you refer to things that way (one problem with official winter crossing a year!!). I had forgotten Pinatubo was the year before El Chichon blew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 This is what top-30 December analogs (US) since 1948 looks like for January: Dec map: https://ibb.co/GT6sjyY Jan roll-forward https://ibb.co/RPFQyLC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 1991-92. Sorry I tend to refer to winter’s by their Jan/Feb year. It’s was Pinatubo. Are you sure????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 18 minutes ago, stormy said: Are you sure????? About what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 23 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: This is what top-30 December analogs (US) since 1948 looks like for January: Dec map: https://ibb.co/GT6sjyY Jan roll-forward https://ibb.co/RPFQyLC That is incredibly skewed. There are some great years in there, 1987, 2003, 2010, 2014 and equally awful ones 1992, 1998, 2002. Not sure how such a diverse set is useful. Yea it skews warm overall but without any continuity wrt a tendency within the sample. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: That is incredibly skewed. There are some great years in there, 1987, 2003, 2010, 2014 and equally awful ones 1992, 1998, 2002. Not sure how such a diverse set is useful. Yea it skews warm overall but without any continuity wrt a tendency within the sample. I did + and - matches. About 15 of each, 30 total. For some reason it's having trouble showing in the composite list. Point is pretty clear though that the pattern carries. I found that the EPO-region which is 2SD's positive this December carries to Jan-Feb at 0.3 correlation, or about 60%. It's not saying anything will absolutely happen, but it's a baseline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: i expect another significant blocking spell at some point. probably late in the winter. i’d be surprised if there wasn’t another one We have now kicked blocking all the way to late winter? I thought the NAO was supposed to be negative most of the winter? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 hour ago, CAPE said: It weakens(apparently) but we don't want it to become some deep monster vortex pumping Pacific air into NA either. The NE Pac low is a prominent feature of a Nino, so it wont just 'disappear'. Yeah, that's why I mentioned there should be a semblance. I agree with you totally on the strength for sure brother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 New years looks like it might be cold 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 hour ago, CAPE said: It weakens(apparently) but we don't want it to become some deep monster vortex pumping Pacific air into NA either. The NE Pac low is a prominent feature of a Nino, so it wont just 'disappear'. In January, the PNA region starts impacting us colder vs Dec Quote The +PNA correlates with cold in January, but not so much December Dec +PNA: https://ibb.co/tbtHzyR https://ibb.co/MC130Pk Jan +PNA: https://ibb.co/ZGQMXy0 https://ibb.co/cw1tPVc 0.1 to 0.5 difference. We need it to not dry up on models though right as we approach Jan 1, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 minute ago, ldub23 said: New years looks like it might be cold Based off the 18z gfs op? 12z it was in the upper 40s low 50s same time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Based off the 18z gfs op? 12z it was in the upper 40s low 50s same time. Im looking for any sign the cold is coming and im hoping the new year starts out cold, 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Based off the 18z gfs op? 12z it was in the upper 40s low 50s same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 43 minutes ago, osfan24 said: We have now kicked blocking all the way to late winter? I thought the NAO was supposed to be negative most of the winter? What in the world are you taking about? Read the thread. No one has said that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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