Steve25 Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 I'm still just happy colder airmasses continue to get closer and closer. Some of y'all really could benefit from just walking away from the models and forum for a week and come back on the 29th and see how things look. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 It's really frustrating. This type of system is supposed to be an easy 3-6 inches with temps between 30-32 and we just can't get there on any marginal event. We were looking at all rain and temps in the 50s 3 days before the first snowfall of the season. Ended up with 3” here. Not counting out the 29th quite yet. Still a ways to go. I’d take another small event early on in the new pattern if we can get one before mecs/hecs hunting season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 44 minutes ago, CAPE said: More consolidated than the 12z run for sure, and stronger ridging into GL. Looking more blocky. Yeah baby 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Yeah baby That's a legitimately excellent look. I hope //this// type of feature continue to show. That's how you win. I want to see tracks laid down and see one light to moderate snow event after another come through. Unless we can score a 2010 scenario, I'd rather we avoid some big event that blows the pattern up for weeks on end. No one and done for me. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 23, 2023 Author Share Posted December 23, 2023 1 hour ago, Roger Smith said: The entire extended Kuchera family must be at Weatherbell to come up with so much snow from a 5-8" type look. Chuck? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 23, 2023 Author Share Posted December 23, 2023 1 hour ago, snowfan said: Lol awesome 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 8 hours ago, WesternFringe said: I forget, is it you or Stormchaserchuck that said mushrooms are better than weed? Just kidding, and I know you know more about longwave weather than I do, but I don’t always understand what you mean. 12Z shows what the ensembles hinted at which is a lottery snowfall potential for some in our sub late next week. Likely favors NW and elevation as temps and lift dominate the snow equation I think we have a favorably positioned low pressure coming up from the south snd already organized, That works much better than phasing or transfers. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 41 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Ya think? Really great analysis. You missed the erratic LP gyrations, Beckley s.w. to Ashville to Charlotte. Cad on steroids? Wait until tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: Wow! I go out to dinner and everyone is fighting during the best digital snow run of the GFS since it upgraded to be the worst global model????!!! (WB 18Z GFS in super fantasy range) Holy hell! How much for short pump!? ETA - Because honestly I have no exact clue where Short Pump is, but if they get more snow than me, I’ll officially take VA off my “fantastic place for beer list”. Eff the short pump! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 34 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: That's a legitimately excellent look. I hope //this// type of feature continue to show. That's how you win. I want to see tracks laid down and see one light to moderate snow event after another come through. Unless we can score a 2010 scenario, I'd rather we avoid some big event that blows the pattern up for weeks on end. No one and done for me. this is super weenie but i think the pattern progression of this winter will probably go to a potentially snowy pattern in early january (i think the cap from this pattern could be 12" honestly), and then we have a slight warm up mid jan with a light snow event and then late january to february would be our big dog potential i dont wanna jinx anything but this winter is for sure looking good at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, Scraff said: Holy hell! How much for short pump!? ETA - Because honestly I have no exact clue where Short Pump is, but if they get more snow than me, I’ll officially take VA off my “fantastic place for beer list”. Eff the short pump! Richmond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 6 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Richmond I kinda of knew it was in the vicinity of Richmond, and certainly could have google mapped it, but it was way more fun to throw Short Pump under the bus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 9 minutes ago, Scraff said: I kinda of knew it was in the vicinity of Richmond, and certainly could have google mapped it, but it was way more fun to throw Short Pump under the bus. Ha! It’s the McLean in Richmond. Nice area. We have better snow climo. That’s all that matters to me. I’d rather live in Caribou than Palm Beach. Not many will say that outside this place 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 You missed the erratic LP gyrations, Beckley s.w. to Ashville to Charlotte. Cad on steroids? Wait until tomorrow morning. Looking at minute details 14-15 days out is pretty pointless. Models will probably go from showing a NC jackpot to a DC jackpot to a Detroit jackpot and back again over the next 7-8 days. Which is what we should expect this far out. We’re seeing the large envelope of solutions being depicted in individual members at range (January 4-6 timeframe) which will narrow with passing time. Things we know: a legitimate airmass that can support snow is coming and we have a very active STJ in place that will be sending a parade of SWs across the southern half of the country. Pretty solid signal for a bob chill train w to e train pattern to unfoldThe details and timing are not going to be ironed out for quite some time. Getting into passionate debates this far out is pretty pointless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 The thing about a Nino is there is seemingly always another wave, and on an ensemble mean at range with disparity among the members, it is sometimes difficult to make a distinction between one wave and the next. maybe this isnt the one- and this one is. looks colder/snowier on the mean, with surface low placement further SE. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 4 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Possibly. There’s a constant stream of gulf moisture into our area starting on the 4th. Screams overrunning snows with weak areas of low pressure and the caboose of the lows is the storm that develops off the coast those are the classic 1–2-foot snowstorms around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 13 minutes ago, CAPE said: The thing about a Nino is there is seemingly always another wave, and on an ensemble mean at range with disparity among the members, it is sometimes difficult to make a distinction between one wave and the next. maybe this isnt the one- and this one is. looks colder/snowier on the mean, with surface low placement further SE. Both of the waves you illustrated above are running along the KY/TN border. That's a classic setup for a high end advisory level snowfall event in these parts. What's far more important is that you see a legitimate and sustained cross polar flow. That will cool things off and right quick if we ultimate experience that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 13 minutes ago, CAPE said: The thing about a Nino is there is seemingly always another wave, and on an ensemble mean at range with disparity among the members, it is sometimes difficult to make a distinction between one wave and the next. maybe this isnt the one- and this one is. looks colder/snowier on the mean, with surface low placement further SE. Might gamble and take a PTO day for Jan. 8th. The second disturbance sure looks promising at this range . Upstream looks better as well leading to the colder outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 1 minute ago, frd said: Might gamble and take a PTO day for Jan. 8th. The second disturbance sure looks promising at this range . Upstream looks better as well leading to the colder outcome. That's the kind of setup where you want to take a weekend in Sheperdstown or Berkley Springs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Both of the waves you illustrated above are running along the KY/TN border. That's a classic setup for a high end advisory level snowfall event in these parts. Not quite correct. The initial wave has more interaction with NS energy and a significant number of members track the primary low to our NW, and that's where the strongest signal for frozen is. So, you missed the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 23, 2023 Author Share Posted December 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Not quite correct. The initial wave has more interaction with NS energy and a significant number of members track the primary low to our NW, and that's where the strongest signal for frozen is. So, you missed the point. Sometimes those are the front end thumps that do well out here. I realize they aren’t so great out east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 24 minutes ago, CAPE said: The thing about a Nino is there is seemingly always another wave, and on an ensemble mean at range with disparity among the members, it is sometimes difficult to make a distinction between one wave and the next. maybe this isnt the one- and this one is. looks colder/snowier on the mean, with surface low placement further SE. That second wave doesn’t have any NS interaction with the lobe over Canada. That’s probably a good thing for us on the coastal plain (hence your point about it maybe being the one ). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 3 hours ago, stormy said: Guess what? The 18z GFS now transfers energy south at the last minute, and dumps snow on Jan. 6. 8 inches for me and 11 inches for D.C. by Sunday morning. My wish with psu nearly came true!!!!! Hooray!!!! Like December 5ths in the past in southern PA... It loves to snow January 6th and 7th around here just ask 1996! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Sometimes those are the front end thumps that do well out here. I realize they aren’t so great out east. Possibly, yes. Hard to say at this range, but verbatim, the higher probability for frozen with the initial wave would be NW of your area too. Ofc at 0z this will likely be at least somewhat different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 1 hour ago, Random Chaos said: All aboard weenie wonder land! Why does the GFS keep teasing us with day 14+ snow? It’s been at this for weeks! Amen. Delayed 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 46 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Like December 5ths in the past in southern PA... It loves to snow January 6th and 7th around here just ask 1996! Copy that for Dale City, Virginia! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 GFS at least suggests the 500 vort passage next week will offer some upslope to the ski resorts in MD/WV and temps that support snowmaking heading into New Years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 0z is kinda boring. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: 0z is kinda boring. Lol They can’t all be winners I suppose. As long as the pattern has good bones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 One of the worst gfs runs in an El Niño I’ve ever seen 1 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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