Ji Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 Omg do we need a snowstorm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 Pummeled 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 The turn to colder temps is still on the 28-29th, all ensembles support this. That has remained unchanged for some time 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 Gfs with the 5th-7th storm still. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 Guess what? The 18z GFS now transfers energy south at the last minute, and dumps snow on Jan. 6. 8 inches for me and 11 inches for D.C. by Sunday morning. My wish with psu nearly came true!!!!! Hooray!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 And don’t sleep on the low op runs are trying to develop on Jan 1. For now its too far SE by 200 miles, but that kind of range is nothing for a D9 threat 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 Just looked and it’s a beaut. Glad it’s still there regardless of anything else 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 Wow! I go out to dinner and everyone is fighting during the best digital snow run of the GFS since it upgraded to be the worst global model????!!! (WB 18Z GFS in super fantasy range) 5 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 22, 2023 Author Share Posted December 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Wow! I go out to dinner and everyone is fighting during the best digital snow run of the GFS since it upgraded to be the worst global model????!!! It’s a lock 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It’s a lock Others may call it guaranteed 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 Difficult to know exactly what to root for this far out with so many pieces of energy flying around(not that it matters), but the timing and interactions between them will make all the difference in the final outcome. It all works out this run, and it has in some recent runs, so we at least know it is meteorologically possible to get a snowstorm in this window. Ensembles have been pretty persistent overall depicting a favorable outcome, but also give us an indication of the uncertainty and the most likely failure mode(s). Some understandably hate it, but I enjoy the complexity and challenge of doing the analysis at this range. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Difficult to know exactly what to root for this far out with so many pieces of energy flying around(not that it matters), but the timing and interactions between them will make all the difference in the final outcome. It all works out this run, and it has in some recent runs, so we at least know it is meteorologically possible to get a snowstorm in this window. Ensembles have been pretty persistent overall depicting a favorable outcome, but also give us an indication of the uncertainty and the most likely failure mode(s). Some understandably hate it, but I enjoy the complexity and challenge of doing the analysis at this range. Save your knowledgeable, scientific analysis for another time. Let us all enjoy our foot+ of digital snowfall. 2 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 wow. stout AK ridge becoming stronger in time with the STJ undercutting. could be a fun pattern 21 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 The entire extended Kuchera family must be at Weatherbell to come up with so much snow from a 5-8" type look. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 I'm just happy we keep seeing the good looks consistently holding as we continue to move closer in time. Feels like we might have something to track once we get through Christmas. At least by New Year's I would think. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 18 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: wow. stout AK ridge becoming stronger in time with the STJ undercutting. could be a fun pattern I like the indication on the HH GEFS of TPV energy phasing into the existing lower heights in the 50-50 region ahead of our potential storm. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: I like the indication on the HH GEFS of TPV energy phasing into the existing lower heights in the 50-50 region ahead of our potential storm this run. That doesn’t look all that much different from your avatar. Not exact match but still pretty close. Not too shabby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: That doesn’t look all that much different from your avatar. Not exact match but still pretty close. Not too shabby Doesn't have the insane NA block, but other than that not too bad, and pretty typical Nino look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: I like the indication on the HH GEFS of TPV energy phasing into the existing lower heights in the 50-50 region ahead of our potential storm. Does that help reinforce the 50/50 lower heights? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 43 minutes ago, Terpeast said: The turn to colder temps is still on the 28-29th, all ensembles support this. That has remained unchanged for some time Get out of here with that logic nonsense were having a crazy party. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 8 minutes ago, nj2va said: Does that help reinforce the 50/50 lower heights? That's what I'm thinking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: That's what I'm thinking. More consolidated than the 12z run for sure, and stronger ridging into GL. Looking more blocky. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 1 minute ago, snowfan said: Doesn't have to be. It's all in how you think about it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 All aboard weenie wonder land! Why does the GFS keep teasing us with day 14+ snow? It’s been at this for weeks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Still plenty of spread among the members on the timing/track and even the specific waves that are the ultimate players for this event. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
32º Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, Random Chaos said: All aboard weenie wonder land! Why does the GFS keep teasing us with day 14+ snow? It’s been at this for weeks! 2 minutes ago, Random Chaos said: All aboard weenie wonder land! Why does the GFS keep teasing us with day 14+ snow? It’s been at this for weeks! The GFS has developed self-awareness and is messing with us. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 I am happy for all the Snow Geese who are honking !!!! The op. GFS is very erratic with the track of L.P. during the 336 - 378 hr. timeframe. This is not likely to survive. During the past week, we agreed that looking beyond 300 hrs. on an op. is foolish. The GEFS does believe that L.P. will be developing in N.C. at 7 am on the 6th, transferring to eastern N.C. and eastern Va. at 1 p.m. That can be a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, stormy said: The GEFS does believe that L.P. will be developing in N.C. at 7 am on the 6th, transferring to eastern N.C. and eastern Va. at 1 p.m. If I supply the LP, I get a 10% cut on all of the snow generated thereby. Sort of a finders' fee. Deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 10 minutes ago, stormy said: This is not likely to survive. Ya think? Really great analysis. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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