SnowenOutThere Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 8 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: I teach HS math, like algebra, geometry, calculus, stats, etc. In my 21st year. I have my PhD and should really go teach preservice teachers in college, but I just really love teaching high schoolers. If (when) I ever need help in my ap pre calc or AB next year I now know who to ask. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 The 12z ECM and EPS say no significant winter weather through Saturday, Jan. 6. Everything is too progressively zonal. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 WB 12Z EPS continues to show colder air getting entrenched into mid-Atlantic as we end the year. No can kicking on the cold... 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 14 minutes ago, stormy said: The 12z ECM and EPS say no significant winter weather through Saturday, Jan. 6. Everything is too progressively zonal. Euro op only runs to D10. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 29 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Glad we got that Mexican cold. I see Cuba gave us some too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 53 minutes ago, stormy said: The 12z ECM and EPS say no significant winter weather through Saturday, Jan. 6. Everything is too progressively zonal. You cannot ignore this because the models over the past three seasons show you what should be happening in a normal winter pattern then flip out and say but this is what you get; just like in Willy Wonka: "You Get Nothing"!!! "Good Day Sir"!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 49 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro op only runs to D10. You are correct. Instead of splitting between 240 and 360 hrs.. I decided to lump the two in tandem, covering the period up to Jan 6. This has both covering the 29 threat and the EPS the 29 & Jan 5 threat. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 16 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: You cannot ignore this because the models over the past three seasons show you what should be happening in a normal winter pattern then flip out and say but this is what you get; just like in Willy Wonka: "You Get Nothing"!!! "Good Day Sir"!!! The third word of your comment says it all: ignore ....... Have a better day tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 22 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: You cannot ignore this because the models over the past three seasons show you what should be happening in a normal winter pattern then flip out and say but this is what you get; just like in Willy Wonka: "You Get Nothing"!!! "Good Day Sir"!!! Way too early to give up on early January but here is the 3-4 week outlook beginning on the 6th. Features 55-60% chance of above normal temperatures and the same chances for above normal precipitation. It's a two outcome prediction so the chances of below normal temperatures is 40-45%. They note that the AO may go negative as early as mid-January if a SSW occurs. They believe the dominant forcer will be the strong ElNino and are not putting too much weight into the MJO due to large uncertainty. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: Hmm, went from happy smiley face H5 maps to confused or disinterested emoji face. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 Let's note 15-day GFS says cold and snow (for Jan 6, 2024), about like two weeks ago it was saying cold and snow for Dec 25-26. Is it any more reliable on second try? Possibly. Best period is probably late Jan and early Feb, but could evolve sooner for a longer wintry episode. Early January signal comes and goes on GFS, I saw one case a couple of days ago for Jan 4-5, it turned into a cutter and now you get Jan 5-6 for cold and snow. Sooner or later one of GFS signals will materialize, I don't believe winter 2023-24 will stay as awful as 2022-23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 22 minutes ago, stormy said: You are correct. Instead of splitting between 240 and 360 hrs.. I decided to lump the two in tandem, covering the period up to Jan 6. This has both covering the 29 threat and the EPS the 29 & Jan 5 threat. Maybe we're looking for different things. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 7 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: Way too early to give up on early January but here is the 3-4 week outlook beginning on the 6th. Features 55-60% chance of above normal temperatures and the same chances for above normal precipitation. It's a two outcome prediction so the chances of below normal temperatures is 40-45%. They note that the AO may go negative as early as mid-January if a SSW occurs. They believe the dominant forcer will be the strong ElNino and are not putting too much weight into the MJO due to large uncertainty. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ I totally agree that it is too early to give up on early January. I am invested in January 3 - 6. The ECM/EPS runs may look much better tomorrow. The joy of this hobby is like the weather in New England. "If you don't like it, wait 10 minutes and it will change"................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 22, 2023 Author Share Posted December 22, 2023 Just now, WxUSAF said: Maybe we're looking for different things. Aren’t those likely the same storm just showing up at different times in the ins members? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Aren’t those likely the same storm just showing up at different times in the ins members? Possibly. There’s a constant stream of gulf moisture into our area starting on the 4th. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 I’m pretty sure that I’ll stick with the 3 major ensembles that have these looks for their 7 day means for the first week of January. They have been very consistent in showing these looks for quite some time. We should have chances for Winter weather if these looks continue to hold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Maybe we're looking for different things. Thanks, but Yes, we are looking for different things. My comment said "no significant winter weather". This is all subject to monumental change, but at the point in reference, I don't consider .2 inch of snow to be significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Maybe we're looking for different things. Thanks, sometimes I really wonder what some people are look at! We should have at least some chances in the first week of January. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: Thanks, sometimes I really wonder what some people are look at! We should have at least some chances in the first week of January. We're looking at what the model or ensemble says at a given point in time. We are not fantasizing about what some people dream of. Sure, we have good chances in early January. Be patient, wait until tomorrow, the model of your choice may look better. Don't condemn today because it doesn't satisfy your wishes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 8 minutes ago, stormy said: We're looking at what the model or ensemble says at a given point in time. We are not fantasizing about what some people dream of. Sure, we have good chances in early January. Be patient, wait until tomorrow, the model of your choice may look better. Don't condemn today because it doesn't satisfy your wishes. Are you looking at literally anything besides the snow map? 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Are you looking at literally anything besides the snow map? lead poisoning strikes again 3 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 26 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Are you looking at literally anything besides the snow map? Oh sure. I often look at the 500 mb height anomaly, 500 mb windspeed, Surface temp., 850 mb. temp, 850 mb. run to run change, mslp precip. 6n hr., prob. mslp - 1005hpa. among others depending on availability. To make a long story short, the 12z Euro package was not excited today through Jan. 5 regarding any significant wintry threat. Tomorrow, it might explode! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 17 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: lead poisoning strikes again Please be realistic, your insinuation demeans your normal demeanor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 1 hour ago, stormy said: Thanks, but Yes, we are looking for different things. My comment said "no significant winter weather". This is all subject to monumental change, but at the point in reference, I don't consider .2 inch of snow to be significant. No snark, a 24 hour snow mean on day 15 of an ensemble is about the worst tool to use to identify potential 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 46 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Are you looking at literally anything besides the snow map? Raises hand… ”oh oh pick me pick me I know this one”. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: No snark, a 24 hour snow mean on day 15 of an ensemble is about the worst tool to use to identify potential Hey, guess what, we agree! For the past 2 hrs., I have been rather foolishly grilled because I simply told the truth about the Euro package today. Many folks seem to be very protective of their desires which is rather juvenile. As long as others support their dreams, everything is wonderful. Unfortunately that is not the reality of life. In truth, life can be a bitch and then you die. Hopefully, the 00z run of the EPS gives D.C. 12 inches of snow on the 5th. Have a good night and as always, I appreciate your opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 Jan 5/6 storm still there on 18z GFS but the cold push is a bit late with it... so first part is rain, then switches over to snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 It's a weird look tbh... 48 hours of precip MD into S PA clean up well 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 Nice to see another OP run continue to show this window as a threat. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, yoda said: It's a weird look tbh... 48 hours of precip What I take out of it is the ensembles and OP like the 4th and into the future for our snow chances. Best way to look at it. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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