Dec/Jan Medium/Long Range Disco

[psuhoffman]

When I think back on this hobby I don’t remember all the times looking at day 15 ensembles. I think about watching the snow creep north through VA thr afternoon before the blizzard of 96 started. I remember staying up all night in the weather station at PSU Hazleton the night of the January 2000 storm. Looking at WV the afternoon before and trying to harass any of the Mets who would listen that “something wasn’t right”. Realizing “it’s coming up”.   Trust me I wish we got more of that and less of long range tea leaf reading.   

[RDM]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

When I think back on this hobby I don’t remember all the times looking at day 15 ensembles. I think about watching the snow creep north through VA thr afternoon before the blizzard of 96 started. I remember staying up all night in the weather station at PSU Hazleton the night of the January 2000 storm. Looking at WV the afternoon before and trying to harass any of the Mets who would listen that “something wasn’t right”. Realizing “it’s coming up”.   Trust me I wish we got more of that and less of long range tea leaf reading.   

PSU - your last couple of posts underline how this hobby/art/science/obsession afflicts us all.  My family and my wife don't understand why I can't sleep for nights before an inbound storm hits, nor why I check the radar returns every few mins, nor why I stare at the screen after screen of wish-casting posts when things don't go so well.  A curse I've had since I was in elementary and got my first book on weather (which I still have) and made my first Heathkit weather station.  I've been fortunate to witness first-hand some of the best winter weather mother nature can dish out, but each new storm is still like the first, even at my now ripe ole age of 62.     Thank you for the passion, objectivity and sound reasoning you bring to the forum. Ditto for the red taggers, mods and other experienced weenie wannabes.  Let's hope the writing on the wall brings the goods.  

[Ji]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

When I think back on this hobby I don’t remember all the times looking at day 15 ensembles. I think about watching the snow creep north through VA thr afternoon before the blizzard of 96 started. I remember staying up all night in the weather station at PSU Hazleton the night of the January 2000 storm. Looking at WV the afternoon before and trying to harass any of the Mets who would listen that “something wasn’t right”. Realizing “it’s coming up”.   Trust me I wish we got more of that and less of long range tea leaf reading.   

the reason we look at the 15 day ensembles  is because there is never anything going on. I love when we actually have  storm to track and dont even give a crap about the ensembles

[Ralph Wiggum]

Gotta agree with PSU here...if you're big dog hunting then we are waiting for a while. The tpv setting up (ens means) over Baffin Bay downstream of the epo ridge...all that spells are fast moving systems embedded in the flow without something in the Atlantic to halt the progression. Good for some overunning chances if you like those relative quick hitters but there really isn't anything I'm seeing to slow things down too much.  Which might be a blessing in disguise until the cold air source gets established more. Tight wound up systems won't do us any good for now as has been discussed ad neaseum already.

[Bob Chill]

6 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

When I think back on this hobby I don’t remember all the times looking at day 15 ensembles. I think about watching the snow creep north through VA thr afternoon before the blizzard of 96 started. I remember staying up all night in the weather station at PSU Hazleton the night of the January 2000 storm. Looking at WV the afternoon before and trying to harass any of the Mets who would listen that “something wasn’t right”. Realizing “it’s coming up”.   Trust me I wish we got more of that and less of long range tea leaf reading.   

I've been disconnecting from all kinds of weird attachments or "hobbies lol" over the last 18 months. Barely touch my big PC, spend as little time online as possible, work hard as heck outside, and just live in the moment most days. I cannot describe in words how much this has helped me achieve new goals and have no fear starting anything new. My anxiety about anything is minimal nowadays but man it took a lot of work to break free. 

My LR analysis is just a super quick scan of ens h5 means and how they are trending. That's it. If a storm is gonna hit... it's gonna hit.... and we certaintly wont know it 7+ days out lol. Worrying about things i can't control was the root of my discomfort in life. Eliminating that is a choice. Not easy to execute and not quick to do buy worth its weight in platinum for me. It's making this hobby fun again for the first time in a long time lol. 

I'm settled in MD thru Jan 7th at least. Intuition says modest snowstorm on the way. Gotta see what happens with the big Midwest wobbler next week. Maybe it parks itself or builds lower heights in the 50/50 zone... 

[CAPE]

Potential still there on the latest GEFS. No complaints about the look up top.  EPO ridge and TPV placement direct colder air southeastward, and a bit of a -NAO with a wave moving along the Gulf coast states.

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

57 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Potential still there on the latest GEFS. No complaints about the look up top.  EPO ridge and TPV placement direct colder air southeastward, and a bit of a -NAO with a wave moving along the Gulf coast states.

 

If we are being realistic, this period has been suggesting more of a southern track for our stj energies. TPV positioning near Baffin downstream of the EPO ridge will help direct the cold, but this may be a real test of our Nino. In the recent Nina episodes, these similar  looks yielded an either suppressed track or 'shred factory' (I think that became the catch phrase iirc) that sheared our southern storms. In any event, if I were a betting man, my money leans towards South of 40 (at the very least) being favored for something. Couple other questions tho....are these looks even correct and will they hold for this period? And then what happens when it (epo ridge/tpv position and cold pressing flow underneath) relaxes? Do we go over to midwest lows/cutters? Guess we wait and see.

[CAPE]

There some ens members that focus on a NS wave with SLP tracking into the OV and up into interior NE. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

If we are being realistic, this period has been suggesting more of a southern track for our stj energies. TPV positioning near Baffin downstream of the EPO ridge will help direct the cold, but this may be a real test of our Nino. In the recent Nina episodes, these similar  looks yielded an either suppressed track or 'shred factory' (I think that became the catch phrase iirc) that sheared our southern storms. In any event, if I were a betting man, my money leans towards South of 40 (at the very least) being favored for something. Couple other questions tho....are these looks even correct and will they hold for this period? And then what happens when it (epo ridge/tpv position and cold pressing flow underneath) relaxes? Do we go over to midwest lows/cutters? Guess we wait and see.

Pretty much everything is on the table this far out, including an outcome that would satisfy many in our region. The EPO ridge position/amplitude has been persistent on guidance for awhile, but it doesn't appear there will be an established -NAO for this period- more of a transient feature as multiple lows track into the 50-50 region increasing h5 heights there. Nothing wrong with that but it will probably require a bit more timing and luck.

[WxUSAF]

Forgive my bad finger drawing on my phone, but I wanted to highlight this shape in the longwave pattern. This is The Look. Northerly flow into the Midwest and Great Lakes supplying cold air, east-west over us and to our north, troughing in the 50/50 region, and then ridging in Greenland for the -NAO. That broad flat bowl look is what @Bob Chill was mentioning recently. 

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Forgive my bad finger drawing on my phone, but I wanted to highlight this shape in the longwave pattern. This is The Look. Northerly flow into the Midwest and Great Lakes supplying cold air, east-west over us and to our north, troughing in the 50/50 region, and then ridging in Greenland for the -NAO. That broad flat bowl look is what @Bob Chill was mentioning recently. 

That is a good look and places cold on air the doorstep, but a NS wave dropping southeastward overtop the ridge could induce LP further north/west than we want. Seeing that idea on the latest ens runs as a possibility. A little deeper bowl would be nice.

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Forgive my bad finger drawing on my phone, but I wanted to highlight this shape in the longwave pattern. This is The Look. Northerly flow into the Midwest and Great Lakes supplying cold air, east-west over us and to our north, troughing in the 50/50 region, and then ridging in Greenland for the -NAO. That broad flat bowl look is what @Bob Chill was mentioning recently. 

 

Imo only, it's the only look that gives us multiple potential outcomes to each wave. I'm prob on an island with this but really don't like deep bowls and vertical storm tracks even with a block. When they work they are lottery tickets but they sure can find a way to not work for a 3rd of our sub usually. Different problems in different directions but similar outcomes... deflated weenies...

The lateral track is the shizzle to me. We can still easily get a foot. Especially with a decent upper level low. Our latitude sits in a sweet spot for the lateral track and we could sure use a level strip of pinks and purples from Lake Anna to York PA. Collective high 5s barely exist on the internet anymore.... snow is the great equalizer here. Let's do this!

On a side note, I wasn't here for 95-96 but that late Dec/early Jan analog keeps popping up. Broad modestly neg pna is prob the reason but man, that's not a bad thing to have in common me thinks. Not saying Jan 96 (hands off keyboard Ji) redux. Just that everything points towards active weather with seasonable cold around and lateral storm track. I'll be a little surprised if we're not tracking something specific by mid next week. 

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

That is a good look and places cold on air the doorstep, but a NS wave dropping southeastward overtop the ridge could induce LP further north/west than we want. Seeing that idea on the latest ens runs as a possibility. A little deeper bowl would be nice.

Then it would be suppressed. Hopefully we cash in during the 48 hours the MJO is in phase 8 in early February 

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Imo only, it's the only look that gives us multiple potential outcomes to each wave. I'm prob on an island with this but really don't like deep bowls and vertical storm tracks even with a block. When they work they are lottery tickets but they sure can find a way to not work for a 3rd of our sub usually. Different problems in different directions but similar outcomes... deflated weenies...

The lateral track is the shizzle to me. We can still easily get a foot. Especially with a decent upper level low. Our latitude sits in a sweet spot for the lateral track and we could sure use a level strip of pinks and purples from Lake Anna to York PA. Collective high 5s barely exist on the internet anymore.... snow is the great equalizer here. Let's do this!

On a side note, I wasn't here for 95-96 but that late Dec/early Jan analog keeps popping up. Broad modestly neg pna is prob the reason but man, that's not a bad thing to have in common me thinks. Not saying Jan 96 (hands off keyboard Ji) redux. Just that everything points towards active weather with seasonable cold around and lateral storm track. I'll be a little surprised if we're not tracking something specific by mid next week. 

You’re not on an island. I mentioned this yesterday in my own way. When you have troughs oriented from Michigan to Myrtle Beach you’re not getting snow no matter how cold it is. Those troughs have to bottom out along the Mississippi. They have to be broad enough to anchor the cold along the foothills of the Rockies or the cold gets booted by any system. I’m not saying I know anything but this is what I have learned from experience. I want to see that look when I check the models.

[Terpeast]

9 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

When I think back on this hobby I don’t remember all the times looking at day 15 ensembles. I think about watching the snow creep north through VA thr afternoon before the blizzard of 96 started. I remember staying up all night in the weather station at PSU Hazleton the night of the January 2000 storm. Looking at WV the afternoon before and trying to harass any of the Mets who would listen that “something wasn’t right”. Realizing “it’s coming up”.   Trust me I wish we got more of that and less of long range tea leaf reading.   

Haha, I remember that! I was yelling at the TV for not seeing that the storm was coming north, not OTS

[CAPE]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Then it would be suppressed. Hopefully we cash in during the 48 hours the MJO is in phase 8 in early February 

It's probably not binary, and we can always nitpick. I like the general look and all my posts have been focusing on the idea of a more modest wave tracking underneath, which still seems like a good bet. It seems pretty likely there will be some snow in at least part of the MA for this period. We just cant know the details yet.

[WxUSAF]

Just now, CAPE said:

It's probably not binary, and we can always nitpick. I like the general look and all my posts have been focusing on the idea of a more modest wave tracking underneath, which still seems like a good bet. It seems pretty likely there will be some snow in at least part of the MA for this period. We just cant know the details yet.

I’m perhaps in the minority in that I’d still be happy with a mixed event. Of the little bit of snow we already get per year, even less of it comes in pure snow events. I’ll take 3-5” that mixes to rain afterward. Just give me some snow I can take a nice Jebwalk in and watch from my window.

[CAPE]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

I’m perhaps in the minority in that I’d still be happy with a mixed event. Of the little bit of snow we already get per year, even less of it comes in pure snow events. I’ll take 3-5” that mixes to rain afterward. Just give me some snow I can take a nice Jebwalk in and watch from my window.

Hell yeah. Gimmie an inch or 2 to properly get on the board, even if it ends up a slushy mess and is gone a few hours later.

[Ralph Wiggum]

17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’m perhaps in the minority in that I’d still be happy with a mixed event. Of the little bit of snow we already get per year, even less of it comes in pure snow events. I’ll take 3-5” that mixes to rain afterward. Just give me some snow I can take a nice Jebwalk in and watch from my window.

I too am in the minority. Give me any frozen and I am happy. Heck, even a good sleet storm or a fzra event. I think it's the 'not the norm' with these things that fuels my passion for the hobby. 

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I too am in the minority. Give me any frozen and I am happy. Heck, even a good sleet storm or a fzra event. I think it's the 'not the norm' with these things that fuels my passion for the hobby. 

Pass. I’m not a fan of mixed events. Give me a clean snow event and I’m happy. Even if it’s just a couple of inches. 

But if it’s a midwest low with a front end thump to dry slot with minor mixing, that’s pretty acceptable to me. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

I love the snow to sleet to freezing rain events here. We rarely go above freezing for those out here and it makes a glacier.

[Eskimo Joe]

28 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Haha, I remember that! I was yelling at the TV for not seeing that the storm was coming north, not OTS

 

9 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

When I think back on this hobby I don’t remember all the times looking at day 15 ensembles. I think about watching the snow creep north through VA thr afternoon before the blizzard of 96 started. I remember staying up all night in the weather station at PSU Hazleton the night of the January 2000 storm. Looking at WV the afternoon before and trying to harass any of the Mets who would listen that “something wasn’t right”. Realizing “it’s coming up”.   Trust me I wish we got more of that and less of long range tea leaf reading.   

I remember that storm vividly. I was living in Philly and got a NOAA Weather Radio for Christmas from my dad (). I remember with each forecast update it got better and better. From "partly cloudy" to "mostly cloudy" to "cloudy with a 40% chance of snow". Then the Regional Weather Roundup (RWR) started reporting snow at Baltimore, Lancaster, and Wilmington. What an epic boom that was. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Imo only, it's the only look that gives us multiple potential outcomes to each wave. I'm prob on an island with this but really don't like deep bowls and vertical storm tracks even with a block. When they work they are lottery tickets but they sure can find a way to not work for a 3rd of our sub usually. Different problems in different directions but similar outcomes... deflated weenies...

The lateral track is the shizzle to me. We can still easily get a foot. Especially with a decent upper level low. Our latitude sits in a sweet spot for the lateral track and we could sure use a level strip of pinks and purples from Lake Anna to York PA. Collective high 5s barely exist on the internet anymore.... snow is the great equalizer here. Let's do this!

On a side note, I wasn't here for 95-96 but that late Dec/early Jan analog keeps popping up. Broad modestly neg pna is prob the reason but man, that's not a bad thing to have in common me thinks. Not saying Jan 96 (hands off keyboard Ji) redux. Just that everything points towards active weather with seasonable cold around and lateral storm track. I'll be a little surprised if we're not tracking something specific by mid next week. 

I’d agree with this except in a moderate to strong Nino.  In all other enso states if you look at the win % for those amplified storms it’s low. Even with a block. But man our win rate is extremely high in a Nino if we get blocking. The only fail in my lifetime was 98 because it just never got cold enough.  92 and 95 failed because we never got prolonged blocking.  83, 87, 2003, 2010 and 2016 all produced HECSs. 
 

If we get a period with a true block this winter our chances of a hecs are pretty good. 
 

Wrt 1996 it kinda makes sense. It was a Nina but had a lot of Nino hybrid characteristics in the North Pacific. Right now we’re in a strong Nino being muted by a strong Nina ish pac base state. So in the end they could have a lot of commonality. Let’s hope so. 

[frd]

10 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

When I think back on this hobby I don’t remember all the times looking at day 15 ensembles. I think about watching the snow creep north through VA thr afternoon before the blizzard of 96 started. I remember staying up all night in the weather station at PSU Hazleton the night of the January 2000 storm. Looking at WV the afternoon before and trying to harass any of the Mets who would listen that “something wasn’t right”. Realizing “it’s coming up”.   Trust me I wish we got more of that and less of long range tea leaf reading.   

That was a great memory. So much excitment. I remember Accu weather with a forecast of 6 to 8 inches for the beaches of southern NJ the day before.  This might have been the storm the Canadian sniffed out that JB claimed his greatest victory to that point calling for a I 95 snowstorm when all others were a scrapper. 

Watching that snow shield move North and forecasts changing was a big thrill.  I also recall the winds after the storm blowing snow back into areas that were cleared. A great memory psu !  

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Haha, I remember that! I was yelling at the TV for not seeing that the storm was coming north, not OTS

Funny story. One of my meteorology professors at PSU was Jon Nese who later left to work at the weather channel. I think he is back at PSU and runs the undergrad program now. But the day before I remember it was evident on WV once the upper feature was into the TN valley something was way way off. Guidance was severely missing the amplitude of the wave. I asked him “what’s the chances all the guidance is just wrong” and he said “about 0”.  lol.  They were probably glad when I changed majors after that semester. I lived in the weather station and looking back on it I probably drove them crazy. 

[Eskimo Joe]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Funny story. One of my meteorology professors at PSU was Jon Nese who later left to work at the weather channel. I think he is back at PSU and runs the undergrad program now. But the day before I remember it was evident on WV once the upper feature was into the TN valley something was way way off. Guidance was severely missing the amplitude of the wave. I asked him “what’s the chances all the guidance is just wrong” and he said “about 0”.  lol.  They were probably glad when I changed majors after that semester. I lived in the weather station and looking back on it I probably drove them crazy. 

It's a shame you have to change majors. You're clearly dedicated to this craft and you would have made one heck of an operational meteorologist.

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It's a shame you have to change majors. You're clearly dedicated to this craft and you would have made one heck of an operational meteorologist.

I don’t regret going into teaching at all. I do think about going back and finishing my meteorology degree someday though. Feels like unfinished business. 

[psuhoffman]

Gfs has a perfect upper and surface low pass on the 29th it’s just about 5 degrees too warm in the boundary layer. 

[nw baltimore wx]

29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Funny story...

... I probably drove them crazy. 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GFS. Still waiting for my first flakes in SW Frederick... maybe next weekend!