rehjr Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: You ever done mushrooms? You must have two hours ago looking at the GEFS 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: We have a good pattern setting up for Dec 29-Jan 2, then it looks like the Aleutian island ridge comes on strong hr384 on 12z GEFS. By the end of the run, the pattern is transitioning toward possibly a SE ridge. What could possibly go wrong 384 hrs out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: We have a good pattern setting up for Dec 29-Jan 2, then it looks like the Aleutian island ridge comes on strong hr384 on 12z GEFS. By the end of the run, the pattern is transitioning toward possibly a SE ridge. Bro....chill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 14 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: Yes, the 15-day mean in College Park is over an inch (1.1") for this first time this winter. 1"??? re: everyone else: tran·si·tion 1. the process or a period of changing from one state or condition to another. The Aleutian ridge is just starting to insert itself, so be careful for what happens next. 15 days away... lol 7 replies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rehjr Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 1"??? re: everyone else: tran·si·tion 1. the process or a period of changing from one state or condition to another. The Aleutian ridge is just starting to insert itself, so be careful for what happens next. 15 days away... lol 7 replies 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 Latest Euro weeklies for the week beyond the end of the 0z EPS run. Dunno about an 'Aleutian island' ridge, but I like that amped EPO ridge in conjunction with a -NAO. Not one word about -PNA. There is no big trough there and a slightly -PNA can actually be our friend in a Nino- think shortwaves ejecting eastward taking the southern route under a NA block. It is likely going to be a temporary feature in this case. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 10 minutes ago, CAPE said: It is likely going to be a temporary feature in this case. Yeah I love that N. Pacific ridge and WC trough. EPS though hasn't yet proven useful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 2 hours ago, osfan24 said: No doubt. When PSU broke down how things might proceed from here, I cringed a bit. I know he still said late January-February could be the real deal, but potentially waiting until then after all the talk of virtual wall-to-wall -NAO and -AO and after so many seasons of nothingness and can-kicking.........whew, that would test us. I’m sorry if I wasn’t clear. I think it’s very possible we get snow before late Jan. I was just saying the best window for a hecs level storm would be after the PAC pattern recycles. There are plenty of paths to get snow before that. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 12 minutes ago, CAPE said: Latest Euro weeklies for the week beyond the end of the 0z EPS run. Dunno about an 'Aleutian island' ridge, but I like that amped EPO ridge in conjunction with a -NAO. Not one word about -PNA. There is no big trough there and a slightly -PNA can actually be our friend in a Nino- think shortwaves ejecting eastward taking the southern route under a NA block. It is likely going to be a temporary feature in this case. That split flow with vorts sliding under the epo!!!....need the homer simpson drool pic!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Yeah I love that N. Pacific ridge and WC trough. EPS though hasn't yet proven useful @stormtracker...we need you 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 8 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Yeah I love that N. Pacific ridge and WC trough. EPS though hasn't yet proven useful 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: We have a good pattern setting up for Dec 29-Jan 2, then it looks like the Aleutian island ridge comes on strong hr384 on 12z GEFS. By the end of the run, the pattern is transitioning toward possibly a SE ridge. 1 hour ago, clskinsfan said: I dont know wtf he is talking about. There is no SE ridge anywhere on the GEFS. If we had a positive AO or a Nina I’d share your worry. He means a week later that pac ridge would be trouble. But in a Nino with -AO and split flow it’s not the same. We discussed this yesterday. And the ridge is temporary. In a strong Nino no way we get a prolonged Nina pacific long wave pattern. It’s a response to the mjo in the MC. It will come off before it significantly alters the equation. If I’m wrong and we get a prolonged pac ridge -pna eastern torch I will officially cancel winter forever and find a new hobby. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If we had a positive AO or a Nina I’d share your worry. He means a week later that pac ridge would be trouble. But in a Nino with -AO and split flow it’s not the same. We discussed this yesterday. And the ridge is temporary. In a strong Nino no way we get a prolonged Nina pacific long wave pattern. It’s a response to the mjo in the MC. It will come off before it significantly alters the equation. If I’m wrong and we get a prolonged pac ridge -pna eastern torch I will officially cancel winter forever and find a new hobby. We had the pattern in 65-66. It was because of a +3SD -NAO that we ended up cold. And that's a pattern that seems to be phasing out lately (-NAO driven cold). I am somewhat worried about the correlation we have had since 2019, and 2013, of -NAO with -pna/+epo, but it's possible that we could do better, yes. The roll forward stuff gives us a 65/35 chance of seeing some kind of moderation in January, but if not, great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If we had a positive AO or a Nina I’d share your worry. He means a week later that pac ridge would be trouble. But in a Nino with -AO and split flow it’s not the same. We discussed this yesterday. And the ridge is temporary. In a strong Nino no way we get a prolonged Nina pacific long wave pattern. It’s a response to the mjo in the MC. It will come off before it significantly alters the equation. If I’m wrong and we get a prolonged pac ridge -pna eastern torch I will officially cancel winter forever and find a new hobby. Again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 26 minutes ago, CAPE said: Latest Euro weeklies for the week beyond the end of the 0z EPS run. Dunno about an 'Aleutian island' ridge, but I like that amped EPO ridge in conjunction with a -NAO. Not one word about -PNA. There is no big trough there and a slightly -PNA can actually be our friend in a Nino- think shortwaves ejecting eastward taking the southern route under a NA block. It is likely going to be a temporary feature in this case. then we get to the KU Feb pattern lmao 8 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: then we get to the KU Feb pattern lmao For Bristow and EJ can you point out the 540 line and 2m temps please 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 Just now, aldie 22 said: For Bristow and EJ can you point out the 540 line and 2m temps please 540 line is in SNE 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: then we get to the KU Feb pattern lmao Yeah they are going to show that, we have a +2.1c El Nino and -19 QBO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: We had the pattern in 65-66. It was because of a +3SD -NAO that we ended up cold. And that's a pattern that seems to be phasing out lately (-NAO driven cold). I am somewhat worried about the correlation we have had since 2019, and 2013, of -NAO with -pna/+epo, but it's possible that we could do better, yes. The roll forward stuff gives us a 65/35 chance of seeing some kind of moderation in January, but if not, great If a -nao doesn’t work then we’re essentially F’d during any -pdo cycle (which can last 20+ years) because the only way we overcame a hostile pac base state in past -pdos was blocking except for random one off fluke luck with progressive waves. But that’s not a path to a snowy winter just a once in a while fluke reprieve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 48 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: You ever done mushrooms? 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 6 minutes ago, yoda said: 540 line is in SNE Is this a joke? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 Just now, psuhoffman said: Is this a joke? Yes lol... read @aldie 22 post again and you'll understand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 Time for the happy hour GooFuS good luck blue pixel vibes. LFG!! 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: then we get to the KU Feb pattern lmao I need @stormtrackerpermission to fully express my opinion of that prog. 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 10 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Yeah they are going to show that, we have a +2.1c El Nino and -19 QBO. But you know better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 Just now, psuhoffman said: I need @stormtrackerpermission to fully express my opinion of that prog. Permission granted. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Permission granted. In my best Lewis Black impersonation… “HOLY SHIT, HOLY Fng SHIT”. Inject that long wave pattern at that exact time of year right into my veins please! 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: But you know better? The Stratosphere warming, which is the favored pattern, seems projected to happen. Every Stratosphere warming since March 2018 though has become a -NAO just as we had -PNA develop at the same time. Say that ENSO is different this year, and that is somewhat true, but don't give it too much weight: We are not posting a monster N. Pacific low so far like '82, '97, '15.. the event continues to act weak/moderate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: The Stratosphere warming, which is the favored pattern, seems projected to happen. Every Stratosphere warming since March 2018 though has become a -NAO just as we had -PNA develop at the same time. Say that ENSO is different this year, and that is somewhat true, but don't give it too much weight: We are not posting a monster N. Pacific low so far like '82, '97, '15.. the event continues to act weak/moderate Ok let’s come at this a different way. What exactly would you want to see to say “it’s gonna be cold/snowy”? 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 pretty classic split flow showing up too. fun pattern 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts