WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 6z gfs has coastals in both those periods. Just skims @CAPE on the 2nd, then suppressed for RIC on the 6th. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 56 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 6z gfs has coastals in both those periods. Just skims @CAPE on the 2nd, then suppressed for RIC on the 6th. I feel southern sliders are always a threat. Also, a too wrapped up system changing to rain. I will not be surprised by misses to the south even though I hate them the most. Still way off, but I even think some of the long range seasonal models were not as bullish on precipitation here. Glass half empty statement here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 Acceptable WB 6Z GEFS run.... 17 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 6 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Love the h5 smiley face pattern. Keeps weenies positive and hopeful. 1 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 Looks like a couple HECS in there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 P14 or bust 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 The 00z and 06z guidance is looking good for a colder, unsettled period during Jan. 1 - 5. 17.8 degrees this morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 When WW posts the 3" probability maps you know it's getting serious. 3 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 By early Jan the +10 to +15 temp anomalies across Canada are reduced to 0 to +3. -EPO/TPV combo cools our source region. With the advertised h5 pattern, cold air availability shouldn't be an issue for waves tracking to our south. 16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 Yellows and blues in the right places. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: Yellows and blues in the right places. Now we just need digital blue on the Ops for JI. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 this pattern looks really interesting. most interesting pattern we've had since jan 2022? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 9 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: this pattern looks really interesting. most interesting pattern we've had since jan 2022? Yes, but that’s a low bar. 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: Acceptable WB 6Z GEFS run.... this is what i want to see 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Yes, but that’s a low bar. Jan 2022 was really good! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 2 hours ago, TSSN+ said: P14 or bust IDK, I'd not toss p03 out... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 7 minutes ago, Ji said: Jan 2022 was really good! I meant exceeding everything since is a very low bar. Jan 22 was very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Yes, but that’s a low bar. 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I meant exceeding everything since is a very low bar. Jan 22 was very good. LOL. Glad you explained that, my thought was 'almost 16" of snow and a -3.5 temp dif is a low bar'?? EDIT, those were MY numbers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 25 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I meant exceeding everything since is a very low bar. Jan 22 was very good. every time you all south of timonium high five over Jan '22 god kills a kitten... 1 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 2 hours ago, nj2va said: Yellows and blues in the right places. 2 hours ago, Chris78 said: Now we just need digital blue on the Ops for JI. And smiley faces for Ralph. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 Only thing I’m checking is when we shift to a colder pattern - latest models show this on the 29th. I think that’s been consistent and no can kick, right? 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 This is my current thought process on how this might play out As the MJO progresses through 8/1 and the jet starts to retract will will get a favorable EPO/PNA longwave pattern around New Years. This will begin the process of ushering in a more favorable regime for snow. But it's going to take some time to mitigate the thermal issues across all of North America. It's possible we get some snow early in this process but it would take some luck with either the timing between waves, a transient well timed 50/50, or a progressive wave with a favorable track. Overly amplified waves would still favor rain during this phase. After that it is likely we get a short period as the MJO progresses through the MC (phases 3-6) where the typical Nino pacific pattern is destructively interfered with and we get a hybrid nina like longwave configuration for a time. This might lead to a bit too much -PNA for a time in January. It shouldn't be a torch or a no hope pattern, we could even snow with some luck and a progressive wave during this period, but it would still not be that "it" look Ji wants for our HECS. But a -PNA ina nino is not the same. THe STJ and split flow will fight against a huge SE ridge this time. But the real lead is that once the MJO gets out of hostile phases again...this time we have a colder regime already established across North America and its go time. By then the effects of the SSW are likely to be kicking in also. If this leads to prolonged NAO blocking in conjunction with when the canonical nino pattern resumes in the pacific it could be ripe for an HECS threat. I am not saying we won't get snow before then...we very well could, but I think the timeline implies our BEST longwave pattern is still likely to be late January into February. 14 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I am not saying we won't get snow before then...we very well could, but I still think the timeline implies our BEST longwave pattern is still likely to be late January into February. Makes sense. And late jan into feb is right in our wheelhouse. I wasn’t even expecting a HECS to occur before that, but it will be nice to catch a couple of minor/moderate events before late Jan 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2023 Author Share Posted December 21, 2023 I like how the gfs is trying to bring cool to cold air into the plains and foothills of the Rockies. Without that any cold air that drops in here just gets booted out as the next system comes along. We need that broad trough centered on the Mississippi to get into consistent cold and chances. Again, I’m not a big snow chaser. More frequent snow and cold is my favorite. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I like how the gfs is trying to bring cool to cold air into the plains and foothills of the Rockies. Without that any cold air that drops in here just gets booted out as the next system comes along. We need that broad trough centered on the Mississippi to get into consistent cold and chances. Again, I’m not a big snow chaser. More frequent snow and cold is my favorite. This is what I’m watching now basically. Our pattern change is within range and how next weeks event brings in colder air and establishes an eastern trough is key to whatever comes after. GFS, at least last nights euro, and now GGEM as well phase in a piece of the TPV and drop it almost due south late next week. Then more shortwaves over central Canada broaden it out. Some earlier runs phased in colder air earlier. It’s too early to say what differences in this may ultimately impact future snow chances because we don’t have a discreet threat afterward (yet). But what I don’t want to see is next week turn into a cutoff low that doesn’t drag in cold air and start an eastern trough. That’s the cankick scenario. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 12z GFS has the Jan 5-6 storm. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2023 Author Share Posted December 21, 2023 20 minutes ago, CAPE said: 12z GFS has the Jan 5-6 storm. From about the 28th on look possible. Wouldn’t surprise me to see one of these models start showing something for the end of next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: From about the 28th on look possible. Wouldn’t surprise me to see one of these models start showing something for the end of next week. Certainly could be snow showers with this TPV passage. But the option for something more is there if things shake out. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2023 Author Share Posted December 21, 2023 It’s that trailing wave, more prominent on the CMC that looks interesting as far as an early chance is concerned 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 12z GEFS is a bit more robust with the trailing shortwave dropping south behind the 27th rain event. A little snow across the region on the mean verbatim. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts