Weather Will Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Next milestone for me is whether there is a distinct threat on our radar by the end of next weekend. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 54 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: like seeing the AK heights recover too. that’s big. we want to see more of these HL changes ^^THAT is the look I want to see on the PAC side. -epo, split flow out west, stj undercutting a neutral/weak +pna. Roll that forward 3-6 days and BANG! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 30 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: gotta like where we’re heading Yepper....im headed to the beer distributor. Oh, you meant wrt the weather. Yeah, that too. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 And ensembles showing a colder look for entire NA. Canada at +5 instead of +15. Could be smoothing, but still a good sign 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Yepper....im headed to the beer distributor. Oh, you meant wrt the weather. Yeah, that too. Well, I do look forward to a day when we can again discuss what beer (or other beverage of choice) we're drinking to ring in a big HECS!!! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 41 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Dunno…worried about lack of snowcover in New Mexico. Southwesterly flow is going to be dangerously warm. Hopefully we can get a small event in early February. Don’t forget increasing sun angle! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 17 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: ^^THAT is the look I want to see on the PAC side. -epo, split flow out west, stj undercutting a neutral/weak +pna. Roll that forward 3-6 days and BANG! to be fair, that is the 500mb change run-by-run. this is the actual 500mb pattern on the EPS and GEFS… still quite nice and getting towards something very good 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 27 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: to be fair, that is the 500mb change run-by-run. this is the actual 500mb pattern on the EPS and GEFS… still quite nice and getting towards something very good You would think being around as long as I have I would read the legend on these maps before drooling. I'm rushing these looks faster than guidance rushes pattern changes these days. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 without snow cover build its going to be hard to get sustained cold, however if the model progression of retrograding heights westward into the EPO/PNA domain and even getting some height builds in NAO domain it will eventually improve the 28th-30th airmass seems just cold enough to snow; marginal but could work 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 There is snow cover N of the border (WB) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 hour ago, DarkSharkWX said: without snow cover build its going to be hard to get sustained cold, however if the model progression of retrograding heights westward into the EPO/PNA domain and even getting some height builds in NAO domain it will eventually improve the 28th-30th airmass seems just cold enough to snow; marginal but could work I think this is overrated, at least wrt getting snow. If you’re rooting for some 1977 or 1994 type arctic outbreak it’s important. We had a snowy 2 week period in Jan 2019 when there was no snow cover around us. I remember this same debate. I just got 4” and held snow cover for 4 days! It’s mid Dec. All we need is a slightly colder airmass in Jan-Feb for that to work for most here. I file this away with soil temps, sun angle, day before temps, pressure in Pittsburgh and other distractions that come up every year. 9 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 GEPS looks pretty great. hopefully we can get a wavebreak to move that ridge closer to Greenland but this is still more than enough. heights over AK have recovered and colder than average air has filtered in alongside AN precip 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 makes sense given the retrogression of the AK trough as the +EAMT loses effect 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I think this is overrated, at least wrt getting snow. If you’re rooting for some 1977 or 1994 type arctic outbreak it’s important. We had a snowy 2 week period in Jan 2019 when there was no snow cover around us. I remember this same debate. I just got 4” and held snow cover for 4 days! It’s mid Dec. All we need is a slightly colder airmass in Jan-Feb for that to work for most here. I file this away with soil temps, sun angle, day before temps, pressure in Pittsburgh and other distractions that come up every year. ‘09/10 was Canada’s warmest winter on record to that point. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 People hate the snow maps but they tell me that we are in the game for the end of the month...couple of big hits to our south....WB 12Z GEFS. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: GEPS looks pretty great. hopefully we can get a wavebreak to move that ridge closer to Greenland but this is still more than enough. heights over AK have recovered and colder than average air has filtered in alongside AN precip Nice 5 day mean for day 11 to 16 on the GEPS as well. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 It looks to me like we are losing the Aleutian low (on the models) as we head toward New Years.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 27 minutes ago, Weather Will said: People hate the snow maps but they tell me that we are in the game for the end of the month...couple of big hits to our south....WB 12Z GEFS. This is the GEFS look for 12/29. Hopefully we are in the game for this chance. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Here is the 5 day mean for day 11 to 16 on the 12z GEFS. Good to continue to see general agreement with the Canadian ensemble as well 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: I think this is overrated, at least wrt getting snow. If you’re rooting for some 1977 or 1994 type arctic outbreak it’s important. We had a snowy 2 week period in Jan 2019 when there was no snow cover around us. I remember this same debate. I just got 4” and held snow cover for 4 days! It’s mid Dec. All we need is a slightly colder airmass in Jan-Feb for that to work for most here. I file this away with soil temps, sun angle, day before temps, pressure in Pittsburgh and other distractions that come up every year. Snow cover really is necessary to have DC area highs of 20 and lows 0 to 5. As you said though it’s not necessary for highs 25-30 and low 20-25 and that’s spectacular snow temps 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 4 hours ago, Terpeast said: And ensembles showing a colder look for entire NA. Canada at +5 instead of +15. Could be smoothing, but still a good sign I think it's attributed from the +EAMT weakening. I'm hoping we get the changes needed to favor a colder stormier pattern, or backloaded winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 The 12z EPS continues to look good for late December and still agrees with the GEFS & GEPS. Here is the EPS 5 day mean for the day 10 to 15 period. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Here is how the 12z EPS ends on day 15. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 It seems pretty likely that the most notable initial improvement in the longwave pattern will be the NE Pac low retrograding towards the Aleutians, with the flat central Canada ridge 'morphing' into an EPO ridge. All the ens means depict this evolution. That's a favorable shift and a colder look for the eastern US. There are also hints of improvement in the NA, esp on some of the Op runs, but it may be closer to mid January before we see something more than a transient -NAO. This aligns with most of the winter forecasts, and also what the extended tools have been depicting. The forum mood graph should indicate we are on the increasing slope of the sine wave and approaching peak. 4 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: The forum mood graph should indicate we are on the increasing slope of the sine wave and approaching peak. We're always happiest just before the crash 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said: Snow cover really is necessary to have DC area highs of 20 and lows 0 to 5. As you said though it’s not necessary for highs 25-30 and low 20-25 and that’s spectacular snow temps exactly - snow in the single digits isn't exactly enjoyable (esp for the kids). Give me heavy snow and like 23F. Perfect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Latest Euro weeklies. A bit better in the NAO domain for early Jan. Overall, hard to complain about that look. 10 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: It looks to me like we are losing the Aleutian low (on the models) as we head toward New Years.. Yeah, may be a hiccup as it appears to totally dissolve any semblance in the NPAC for that matter. You'd think there'd be one somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ Yesterday's NCEP forecast for weeks 3 and 4. Above normal temperatures likely for north-central and north-east U.S. with below normal temperatures in southeast. Transition to colder temperatures in northeast possible some time during week 4. MJO likely to weaken before reaching phase 8 but could re-emerge in 1. SSW could impact weather late in week 4 Impossible to predict whether NAO / AO will be positive or negative Widespread troughing over U.S. due to active storm track and not Arctic air mass intrusions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 WINTER STORM WATCH for western Highland County for late Monday. 6 - 12 inches possible. This is only 145 miles west/southwest of D.C. https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VAZ503&warncounty=VAC091&firewxzone=VAZ503&local_place1=4 Miles WNW Monterey VA&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch&lat=38.4284&lon=-79.6419 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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