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Dec/Jan Medium/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr
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17 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

^^THAT is the look I want to see on the PAC side. -epo, split flow out west, stj undercutting a neutral/weak +pna. Roll that forward 3-6 days and BANG!

to be fair, that is the 500mb change run-by-run. this is the actual 500mb pattern on the EPS and GEFS… still quite nice and getting towards something very good

IMG_3747.thumb.png.929796e4b44c4e91a2184431ad136418.pngIMG_3746.thumb.png.271d124c1976a1fd5f5557c4dd7a9e90.png

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27 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

to be fair, that is the 500mb change run-by-run. this is the actual 500mb pattern on the EPS and GEFS… still quite nice and getting towards something very good

IMG_3747.thumb.png.929796e4b44c4e91a2184431ad136418.pngIMG_3746.thumb.png.271d124c1976a1fd5f5557c4dd7a9e90.png

You would think being around as long as I have I would read the legend on these maps before drooling. I'm rushing these looks faster than guidance rushes pattern changes these days. 

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without snow cover build its going to be hard to get sustained cold, however if the model progression of retrograding heights westward into the EPO/PNA domain and even getting some height builds in NAO domain it will eventually improve

the 28th-30th airmass seems just cold enough to snow; marginal but could work

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1 hour ago, DarkSharkWX said:

without snow cover build its going to be hard to get sustained cold, however if the model progression of retrograding heights westward into the EPO/PNA domain and even getting some height builds in NAO domain it will eventually improve

the 28th-30th airmass seems just cold enough to snow; marginal but could work

I think this is overrated, at least wrt getting snow. If you’re rooting for some 1977 or 1994 type arctic outbreak it’s important. We had a snowy 2 week period in Jan 2019 when there was no snow cover around us. I remember this same debate. I just got 4” and held snow cover for 4 days!  It’s mid Dec. All we need is a slightly colder airmass in Jan-Feb for that to work for most here. I file this away with soil temps, sun angle, day before temps, pressure in Pittsburgh and other distractions that come up every year. 

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14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think this is overrated, at least wrt getting snow. If you’re rooting for some 1977 or 1994 type arctic outbreak it’s important. We had a snowy 2 week period in Jan 2019 when there was no snow cover around us. I remember this same debate. I just got 4” and held snow cover for 4 days!  It’s mid Dec. All we need is a slightly colder airmass in Jan-Feb for that to work for most here. I file this away with soil temps, sun angle, day before temps, pressure in Pittsburgh and other distractions that come up every year. 

‘09/10 was Canada’s warmest winter on record to that point.

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1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

GEPS looks pretty great. hopefully we can get a wavebreak to move that ridge closer to Greenland but this is still more than enough. heights over AK have recovered and colder than average air has filtered in alongside AN precip

cmc-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_1day-4110400.thumb.png.c8e16b35c9b8a6e5adb965ecd2357a30.pngcmc-ensemble-all-avg-conus-t2m_f_anom_1day-4110400.thumb.png.78d968c71e10901ce5d7c0c99e0f8a76.pngcmc-ensemble-all-avg-conus-qpf_anom_5day-4110400.thumb.png.15446465b4c0dbb90d1ccfc525e6c9f4.png

Nice 5 day mean for day 11 to 16 on the GEPS as well.

IMG_3631.png

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I think this is overrated, at least wrt getting snow. If you’re rooting for some 1977 or 1994 type arctic outbreak it’s important. We had a snowy 2 week period in Jan 2019 when there was no snow cover around us. I remember this same debate. I just got 4” and held snow cover for 4 days!  It’s mid Dec. All we need is a slightly colder airmass in Jan-Feb for that to work for most here. I file this away with soil temps, sun angle, day before temps, pressure in Pittsburgh and other distractions that come up every year. 

Snow cover really is necessary to have DC area highs of 20 and lows 0 to 5.  As you said though it’s not necessary for highs 25-30 and low 20-25 and that’s spectacular snow temps 

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It seems pretty likely that the most notable initial improvement in the longwave pattern will be the NE Pac low retrograding towards the Aleutians, with the flat central Canada ridge 'morphing' into an EPO ridge. All the ens means depict this evolution. That's a favorable shift and a colder look for the eastern US. There are also hints of improvement in the NA, esp on some of the Op runs, but it may be closer to mid January before we see something more than a transient -NAO. This aligns with most of the winter forecasts, and also what the extended tools have been depicting.

The forum mood graph should indicate we are on the increasing slope of the sine wave and approaching peak.

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1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

Snow cover really is necessary to have DC area highs of 20 and lows 0 to 5.  As you said though it’s not necessary for highs 25-30 and low 20-25 and that’s spectacular snow temps 

exactly - snow in the single digits isn't exactly enjoyable (esp for the kids).  Give me heavy snow and like 23F.  Perfect.

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https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

Yesterday's NCEP forecast for weeks 3 and 4.  Above normal temperatures likely for north-central and north-east U.S. with below normal temperatures in southeast.  Transition to colder temperatures in northeast possible some time during week 4. 

MJO likely to weaken before reaching phase 8 but could re-emerge in 1.

SSW could impact weather late in week 4

Impossible to predict whether NAO / AO will be positive or negative

Widespread troughing over U.S. due to active storm track and not Arctic air mass intrusions.

 

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WINTER STORM WATCH for western Highland County for late Monday. 6 - 12 inches possible. This is only 145 miles west/southwest of D.C.

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VAZ503&warncounty=VAC091&firewxzone=VAZ503&local_place1=4 Miles WNW Monterey VA&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch&lat=38.4284&lon=-79.6419

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