Weather Will Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 The weeklies still look good for January. Will the pattern deliver snowfall in the next 2 weeks? We wait and see. I agree with Ji that over the next week or so, we need to see whether we can get a distinct threat south of the MD/ PA line. H5s can be as full of jive as the digital snow maps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 We will get it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 8 minutes ago, Ji said: Gonna be a long winter Or a short onehttps://x.com/mpalmerwx/status/1737629907012723080?s=46&t=C005pd5HNg3Y-KhVU7n3VA He used one run of one model to say “no evidence of cold”. Come on that’s clown stuff. But we’re hunting snow not cold. Frankly I’m not sure how cold it can actually get anymore. Since the last super Nino in 2016 we’ve had several direct cross polar arctic shots and frankly none of them was nearly as impressive or long lived as competence shots prior to 2016. Warm muted then routs the cold pretty fast recently. But it can get just cold enough to snow still and that’s what I’m hunting. I’ve given up on wall to wall cold. This isn’t even really the right seasonal setup for that. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 He used one run of one model to say “no evidence of cold”. Come on that’s clown stuff. But we’re hunting snow not cold. Frankly I’m not sure how cold it can actually get anymore. Since the last super Nino in 2016 we’ve had several direct cross polar arctic shots and frankly none of them was nearly as impressive or long lived as competence shots prior to 2016. Warm muted then routs the cold pretty fast recently. But it can get just cold enough to snow still and that’s what I’m hunting. I’ve given up on wall to wall cold. This isn’t even really the right seasonal setup for that. Yep. As long as we are near normal we are in the ball game as long as everything else is in place. We have had a few several below average months this year already which is by itself pretty shocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 11 minutes ago, Ji said: Gonna be a long winter Or a short onehttps://x.com/mpalmerwx/status/1737629907012723080?s=46&t=C005pd5HNg3Y-KhVU7n3VA So much for slightly below, to near normal to above snow in January on the weeklies eh Weeklies are trash, except if they are warm lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 14 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 12z Euro control has a low near VA beach the night of January 3rd. +3 along I-95...cold rain 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: +3 along I-95...cold rain The Icelandic volcano should cool things off at least 3F 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Since the last super Nino in 2016 we’ve had several direct cross polar arctic shots and frankly none of them was nearly as impressive or long lived as competence shots prior to 2016. I think the shot just after Christmas 2017 into January 2018 was very impressive. RDU spent almost 240 straight hours below freezing. There was ice on the edge of the sounds in the outer banks. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 I think the shot just after Christmas 2017 into January 2018 was very impressive. RDU spent almost 240 straight hours below freezing. There was ice on the edge of the sounds in the outer banks.January 2020 was our last good winter month I think 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 5 minutes ago, Ji said: January 2020 was our last good winter month I think January 2022. Double normal snowfall and -2 temp anomaly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 January 2022. Double normal snowfall and -2 temp anomaly. Was it 2022? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 41 minutes ago, Ji said: Yes we need blue to show up on maps if this pattern change stuff is real. It’s really the most important thing I mean eventually but the possible "window" for a storm is like 14 days away ... you should know better 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Was it 2022? Guess that's what you meant. 2020 was lousy, so I thought it was one of your gags. (Just figured I wasn't clever enough to get it) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 1 minute ago, GramaxRefugee said: Guess that's what you meant. 2020 was lousy, so I thought it was one of your gags. (Just figured I wasn't clever enough to get it) Ji doesn't know where he lives. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 12 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: It would be pretty sweet to get a series of 15" - 18" storms over and over. Fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 Just now, Ji said: Was it 2022? Things are going to look at lot better tomorrow. Trust me. The worm will turn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 58 minutes ago, Ji said: Gonna be a long winter Or a short onehttps://x.com/mpalmerwx/status/1737629907012723080?s=46&t=C005pd5HNg3Y-KhVU7n3VA I can't tell if you're panicked or trolling or making fun of this dude...I'm going with yes 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 Guess that's what you meant. 2020 was lousy, so I thought it was one of your gags. (Just figured I wasn't clever enough to get it)Covid screwed up my memory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 12 minutes ago, Ji said: Covid screwed up my memory Apparently it did a lot more than that. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 1 hour ago, cbmclean said: I think the shot just after Christmas 2017 into January 2018 was very impressive. RDU spent almost 240 straight hours below freezing. There was ice on the edge of the sounds in the outer banks. Yeah the week after Christmas in 2017 was impressive cold: multiple subfreezing highs and lows in the single digits IMBY, which ended with a WSW early January. The only other time I’ve seen sustained cold like that here was February 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 Yeah the week after Christmas in 2017 was impressive cold: multiple subfreezing highs and lows in the single digits IMBY, which ended with a WSW early January. The only other time I’ve seen sustained cold like that here was February 2015. Pretty sure that’s the last time the Susquehanna froze all the way across. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 3 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: Trying to learn the long range stuff. So are supercomputers.. good luck 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 I guess it’s time for a reminder that it’s only December. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 4 minutes ago, 87storms said: I guess it’s time for a reminder that it’s only December. Late season form and we haven't even hit the solstice 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 I mean eventually but the possible "window" for a storm is like 14 days away ... you should know betterMy point exactly. The window for a biggie doesn’t open for another 10+ days. Seeing fantasy land OP runs show digital blue certainly doesn’t “mean everything”. In fact, it kinda means nothing. Models are going to show a wide envelope of outcomes at this range. OP GFS showed a MECS last night, and lost it today. It’ll probably show back up tomorrow at 6z. It’s nothing more than noise at this range. No need to freak out over long range OP runs. One thing is for sure… we have a ton of agreement on models regarding the longwave pattern shift coming in a little less than 2 weeks, and it looks like it could be the best 5H pattern we’ve had in quite some time. Some folks need to chilllll. This is a marathon, not a sprint. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 How many inches is Mt. PSU at now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 19 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: How many inches is Mt. PSU at now? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 I just took a look at the 0z GEFS members and there appears to be 2 discrete threat windows- Jan 1-2 and Jan 4-6. Multiple members depict snow for the MA for one or both of those periods. A few are hits for the southern MA/SE around the 5th. A pretty decent signal overall for one or more events Jan 1-6, but the timing is a bit scattershot at this range. The GEPS mean looks a bit more bullish for frozen during this period, EPS a bit less. The advertised h5 pattern for around the 5th in particular looks quite favorable for a MA winter storm. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 16 minutes ago, CAPE said: The advertised h5 pattern for around the 5th in particular looks quite favorable for a MA winter storm. The weekend rule. Sure looks nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2023 Author Share Posted December 21, 2023 6 hours ago, WesternFringe said: 6 Please 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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