osfan24 Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 20 minutes ago, mappy said: oh come on, that'd be fun! 2 days with 30 inches of snow, and mild temps the rest of the time. perfection. Agreed. Wall-to-wall winter like 13-14 or a monster season like 09-10 would be amazing, but if not, a huge storm and a mild winter with weather you can actually enjoy being outside would be great. The warm/wet, cold/dry winters are brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Agreed. Wall-to-wall winter like 13-14 or a monster season like 09-10 would be amazing, but if not, a huge storm and a mild winter with weather you can actually enjoy being outside would be great. The warm/wet, cold/dry winters are brutal. ... i wasn't actually being serious. sorry for the confusion. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 4 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Agreed. Wall-to-wall winter like 13-14 or a monster season like 09-10 would be amazing, but if not, a huge storm and a mild winter with weather you can actually enjoy being outside would be great. The warm/wet, cold/dry winters I'll take cold and dry over mild during the winter all day. We have 3 out of 4 seasons that already give us primarily mild weather. Love when we get one of those extended super cold periods like we had in early January 2018. Loved going out to see how frozen the bodies of water were around town. Only get potential for true winter weather for 2, maybe 3, months of the year. I'm trying to soak it up! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 4 hours ago, Bob Chill said: When all guidance starts showing compressed heights in the east oriented WSW-ENE.... I get stoked... I'm pretty stoked These are the upper level height patterns that can produce snow with just about any wave. Not just a perfectly timed one or second in line or whatever. I know u know this up and down. Just adding to the disco 4 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Classic TN valley overrunner setup lol. Textbook When Bob Chill adds to the disco you all better look out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2023 Author Share Posted December 20, 2023 Impressive gfs run 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Impressive gfs run Webb would gaslight us and say it’s good because it’s laying down snow in the upper Midwest 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 4 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Yep. If you go back and look at the majority of our colder/all snow events (not just big ones), there is typically some form of confluence (or compressed heights running laterally) overhead or to the north. The compression in the upper levels causes of a number of positive ingredients for MA snowfall. Most importantly, it fights off southerly flow in the mids. Confluence causes surface hp to form below it due to air smashing into itself lol. Surface HP keeps mid level flow more northerly. So you have the beautiful combo of warm/moist air streaming in from the SW in the upper levels and colder northerly flow in the mids/surface leading in. Upper level stream hits a wall and turns right due to confluence. That creates extra lift and precipitation. It also often creates a sharp cutoff somewhere. Usually around or just north of Philly. These setups are our favorites but not everyone's lol. ETA: wanted to clarify cutoff and storm track disco. Any big storm can punch a hole in just about any block depending on details. Any big storm can draw in enough Atlantic air to cause precipitation problems. But more typical stuff can get bullied pretty easily. If active flow undercuts the potential dome of upper level HP in Canada like guidance is suggesting.... we can snow a lot of different ways and not rely on needles and threads and stuff. Big storms have always and will always be nailbiters. We aren't new England no matter how big the block is unless 2010 walks in the door again lol. Absolutely top form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Webb would gaslight us and say it’s good because it’s laying down snow in the upper Midwest It was warm/wet and warm/dry...something new for a winter month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: It was warm/wet and warm/dry...something new for a winter month Yea unless I'm missing something it looked like hot garbage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 What a surprise. The typical folks have shown up after this GFS run. 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 7 minutes ago, mattie g said: What a surprise. The typical folks have shown up after this GFS run. Over in banter mentally cashing in bets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 15 minutes ago, mattie g said: What a surprise. The typical folks have shown up after this GFS run. There's also the typical folks talking about the typical folks lol. Jokes aside, I find the Euro control only going out to 240 to be a rational decision on their part. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 30 minutes ago, mattie g said: What a surprise. The typical folks have shown up after this GFS run. notice how nobody mentioned the CMC 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: notice how nobody mentioned the CMC People too conditioned for violence in media - like we’ve all adopted “if it bleeds it leads”. Sucks. thanks for looking at the Canadian. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: notice how nobody mentioned the CMC "Inferior model". Continue hand wringing over a single GFS op run with 'bad look' hundreds of hours out. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 Meanwhile the 12z GEFS has a better look in the NAO domain heading into January. 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 While everyone’s discussing the 300 hour GFS GEPS was a noice run 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 GEFS looks fine to me. You can really start seeing all levels cool off in Canada as the run progresses. The 850 blowtorch up there is moderating a ton towards the end of the run. Cold air slowly bleeding south looks good to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: GEFS looks fine to me. You can really start seeing all levels cool off in Canada as the run progresses. The 850 blowtorch up there is moderating a ton towards the end of the run. Cold air slowly bleeding south looks good to me. Yep. EPO ridge with an assist from the TPV lobes getting it done. Follow the flow. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 GEFS is really nice split flow, hints of a -NAO, and more than cold enough here with a trough in the SE 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: While everyone’s discussing the 300 hour GFS GEPS was a noice run The NPAC low has disappeared? Chuck beware. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 1 hour ago, mattie g said: What a surprise. The typical folks have shown up after this GFS run. The only thing that matters to me on that GFS Run was that there is a large storm. The storm is in two pieces but its a typical GFS thing to misunderstand the split of energy in a split flow. I am sure that the idea is one consolidated low east of the Delmarva instead which would net you a 1-2 foot snowstorm possibly more if there is decent blocking. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: GEFS is really nice split flow, hints of a -NAO, and more than cold enough here with a trough in the SE This is good to see. I need to remind myself to never look at an OP run beyond HR 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: GEFS is really nice split flow, hints of a -NAO, and more than cold enough here with a trough in the SE Talk about night/day from a similar period a year ago. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2023 Author Share Posted December 20, 2023 Read once many years ago on the CPC site that models struggle mightily during times of pattern change. Don’t know if that still applies. We would seem to be entering a good period near the end of the month. I can remember many winters that basically didn’t start until then. I remember 76-77 was about 75 degrees the first weekend in January in swva and then we went into a remarkable deep freeze and snow literally every third day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 End of the GEFS run looks interesting. See it? 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 I approve of those 5H ensemble looks. I have been waiting for JFM because I thought December would be tame in the winter dept. Some already got more snow than all of last year. Can’t be upset heading into the meat of winter with those looks. Solid run(s). 22 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: While everyone’s discussing the 300 hour GFS GEPS was a noice run Oh no! An Aleutian ridge The LR pattern is "ok", the heights are kind of low despite being somewhat favorable in the index areas. We have not, since the El Nino developed, seen a long sustained +PNA, so let's see what happens. I'm a little worried about the roll forward Dec +EPO-Upper Midwest warm look. If the pattern changes and blocking develops up north great, but the Aleutian low looks favorable for 4 days then it phases out a bit on the current models. The roll forward is a -PNA look, so this is the make or break time.. all global models showed a cold January, and this is the time it should happen if it's going to happen (LR ensembles are at Jan 4-5+) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: notice how nobody mentioned the CMC That's because it's the CMC. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 4 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: That's because it's the CMC. Lol. Isn't the CMC the #2 model after the euro as far as verification scores? I mean they are all useless at 240 hrs, but doesn't seem like there's any reason to discount the CMC more vs the GFS. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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