Dec/Jan Medium/Long Range Disco

[Blizzard of 93]

7 minutes ago, yoda said:

00z CMC looks like some frozen on the 30th as the run ends for parts of the region.  00z GFS has a snowstorm for i95 corridor just after the new year (January 2-3)

 

[jayyy]

 

Only 330 to go..

Obviously this will change 3949583929 times between now and then and we can’t take this with anything more than a micron of salt - being a long range OP run - but generally speaking, it’s nice to see fantasy storms lining up with bullish ensemble forecasts for a change. There’s actual support at h5 for these looks, instead of hopelessly praying that these D15 looks will somehow defy a shitty pattern. Also nice to see models continue to track storms up the coast. Just a matter of time before we cash in.

My best general guess? In the 12/28-12/31 timeframe we see an appetizer storm which will likely dump most of its snow well inland. However, *some* frozen is possible closer to the coastal plain. This storm drags the boundary south, setting the stage for something significant in the 1/1-1/7 timeframe. Some LR ensembles have hinted at a quasi 50/50 setting up shop in this timeframe as high pressure begins to build in eastern Canada

It’s game time folks! We’re roughly 5-7 days away from having legitimate threats to track. Hope to see models continue to hone in on the -EPO -NAO +PNA idea currently being floated on some ensembles. Doesn’t get much better than having an active southern jet as cold air finally gets unlocked and transported our direction. Having the necessary mechanisms in place to keep that cold air in place? The proverbial dagger for debs. Let’s do this.

[Albedoman]

52 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Only 330 to go..

Obviously this will change 3949583929 times between now and then and we can’t take this with anything more than a micron of salt - being a long range OP run - but generally speaking, it’s nice to see fantasy storms lining up with bullish ensemble forecasts for a change. There’s actual support at h5 for these looks, instead of hopelessly praying that these D15 looks will somehow defy a shitty pattern. Also nice to see models continue to track storms up the coast. Just a matter of time before we cash in.

My best general guess? In the 12/28-12/31 timeframe we see an appetizer storm which will likely dump most of its snow well inland. However, *some* frozen is possible closer to the coastal plain. This storm drags the boundary south, setting the stage for something significant in the 1/1-1/7 timeframe. Some LR ensembles have hinted at a quasi 50/50 setting up shop in this timeframe as high pressure begins to build in eastern Canada

It’s game time folks! We’re roughly 5-7 days away from having legitimate threats to track. Hope to see models continue to hone in on the -EPO -NAO +PNA idea currently being floated on some ensembles. Doesn’t get much better than having an active southern jet as cold air finally gets unlocked and transported our direction. Having the necessity mechanisms in place to keep that cold air in place? The proverbial dagger for debs. Let’s do this.

so far the most legitimate post in the last month  in this forum. I see the exact same scenario unfolding in the same time period with the 50/50 low and the Quebec  high finally being setup instead of being tossed out of the way with some fricking Miller A storm event around.  If this setup can hold for longer than five days in the LR models we have a shot of a decent snowstorm.

[CAPE]

Early January continues to look promising for shortwaves tracking to our south with colder air in place. Support on the GEFS for the GFS op idea around the 2nd.

Hints of more waves in the southern stream beyond that.

 

[CAPE]

9 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

what a weenie pattern. the -NAO is a game changer if it's real. goes from cold and active to bigger storms quickly

the split flow with vorts undercutting the -EPO is also great to see. all around really nice stuff

The models hint at building heights in the NAO domain then back off, so we'll see. There will probably be transient -NAO periods via wave breaking with lows tracking NE over Atlantic Canada, but my guess is later in Jan there will be increased chances for a sustained block. Given the favorable look on the Pacific side, for now a neutral NAO should do the trick for more modest waves that track across the south.

[Jebman]

I can't stay away from this topic any more. I am reading it on my tablet in bed, during deliveries, during the frackin' day when I am supposed to be doin yard work. This is gonna be good! Everything is lining up! I am so ENGROSSED in the model analysis it is beginning to remind me of reading EUSWX back in early December 2009 --- and we all know how THAT worked out!

[CAPE]

Pretty decent look in the NA with potential incoming on the 0z EPS.

[CAPE]

Everyone is tired of chasing h5 patterns, but we are now seeing persistent discrete threat windows on the ens means for something other than rain.

[Blizzard of 93]

24 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Pretty decent look in the NA with potential incoming on the 0z EPS.

The 0z Euro Control also has a good looking storm for January 2nd that takes a very favorable track. 

Yes, I know…long range Control run, but nice to see storms like this starting to show up in the upcoming pattern.

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Everyone is tired of chasing h5 patterns, but we are now seeing persistent discrete threat windows on the ens means for something other than rain.

When all guidance starts showing compressed heights in the east oriented WSW-ENE.... I get stoked... I'm pretty stoked 

These are the upper level height patterns that can produce snow with just about any wave. Not just a perfectly timed one or second in line or whatever. I know u know this up and down. Just adding to the disco 

[Bob Chill]

Classic TN valley overrunner setup lol. Textbook 

 

 

 

 

 

[MDScienceTeacher]

9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

When all guidance starts showing compressed heights in the east oriented WSW-ENE.... I get stoked... I'm pretty stoked 

These are the upper level height patterns that can produce snow with just about any wave. Not just a perfectly timed one or second in line or whatever. I know u know this up and down. Just adding to the disco 

Is this what you are talking about?

[Bob Chill]

15 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

Is this what you are talking about?

Yep. If you go back and look at the majority of our colder/all snow events (not just big ones), there is typically some form of confluence (or compressed heights running laterally) overhead or to the north. 

The compression in the upper levels causes of a number of positive ingredients for MA snowfall. Most importantly, it fights off southerly flow in the mids. Confluence causes surface hp to form below it due to air smashing into itself lol. Surface HP keeps mid level flow more northerly. So you have the beautiful combo of warm/moist air streaming in from the SW in the upper levels and colder northerly flow in the mids/surface leading in. Upper level stream hits a wall and turns right due to confluence. That creates extra lift and precipitation. It also often creates a sharp cutoff somewhere. Usually around or just north of Philly. These setups are our favorites but not everyone's lol. 

 

ETA: wanted to clarify cutoff and storm track disco. Any big storm can punch a hole in just about any block depending on details. Any big storm can draw in enough Atlantic air to cause precipitation problems. But more typical stuff can get bullied pretty easily. If active flow undercuts the potential dome of upper level HP in Canada like guidance is suggesting.... we can snow a lot of different ways and not rely on needles and threads and stuff. Big storms have always and will always be nailbiters. We aren't new England no matter how big the block is unless 2010 walks in the door again lol. 

[Lowershoresadness]

14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yep. If you go back and look at the majority of our colder/all snow events (not just big ones), there is typically some form of confluence (or compressed heights running laterally) overhead or to the north. 

The compression in the upper levels causes of a number of positive ingredients for MA snowfall. Most importantly, it fights off southerly flow in the mids. Confluence causes surface hp to form below it due to air smashing into itself lol. Surface HP keeps mid level flow more northerly. So you have the beautiful combo of warm/moist air streaming in from the SW in the upper levels and colder northerly flow in the mids/surface leading in. Upper level stream hits a wall and turns right due to confluence. That creates extra lift and precipitation. It also often creates a sharp cutoff somewhere. Usually around or just north of Philly. These setups are our favorites but not everyone's lol. 

Bob's here,  bring out the Cristal, Roxy to the main stage and lets go!

[Eskimo Joe]

It would be pretty sweet to get a series of 5" - 8" storms over and over. 

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It would be pretty sweet to get a series of 5" - 8" storms over and over. 

im only here with PSU for HECS. after all these years..i dont think even MECS would do it

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 0z Euro Control also has a good looking storm for January 2nd that takes a very favorable track. 

Yes, I know…long range Control run, but nice to see storms like this starting to show up in the upcoming pattern.

Wow  euro looks almost identical  to gfs for this storm!!!

[Scraff]

Holy hump day! If @Bob Chillis honking…

[BristowWx]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It would be pretty sweet to get a series of 5" - 8" storms over and over. 

Or just one would be cool.  

[Kmlwx]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

im only here with PSU for HECS. after all these years..i dont think even MECS would do it

If they came over a short enough period with sustained cold it could be a "cumulative HECS" lol. 

[CAPE]

Another thing you love to see- with that amplified upper ridge there will be plenty of HP at the surface over central Canada, and the flow between the -EPO and the TPV provides a mechanism to inject Polar air into the pattern, so going forward those Highs will be legit as they press southward and meet disturbances in the flow across the southern US. Just need a little timing, as usual.

 

[aldie 22]

44 minutes ago, Ji said:

im only here with PSU for HECS. after all these years..i dont think even MECS would do it

I think it's cute that you think that is any different than how you have always been on these boards

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

im only here with PSU for HECS. after all these years..i dont think even MECS would do it

I really don't want this to turn into a winter like 2015-2016 where we blow the entire pattern for 1 event that melts off in 3 days. 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[Steve25]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

im only here with PSU for HECS. after all these years..i dont think even MECS would do it

If you're around 30 years old, or older, you've lived in a golden age for HECS. Out of the largest snowstorms in Baltimores history, 4 of the top 5 have occurred since 1996(96, 03, 10, 16). You can also throw in the other two blizzards from 09/10 that are in the top 10. 6 of the top 10 snowstorms of all time have happened in the last 27 years. 

Of course, with that has come less average snow per winter. AKA, we're seeing a lot less of the winters with multiple 5-8 inch snowfalls. Based on this regions "recent" climate, I'd feel a lot better about getting a massive smash storm as opposed to multiple moderate events. I'd happily take either, though. 

[anotherman]

Not that it matters, but I would take 5 or 6 4-8 inch storms over one 20 inch storm. What I love most about winter is snow cover, so I crave consistency the most, even if no big dogs are involved.

[mappy]

36 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I really don't want this to turn into a winter like 2015-2016 where we blow the entire pattern for 1 event that melts off in 3 days. 

oh come on, that'd be fun! 2 days with 30 inches of snow, and mild temps the rest of the time. perfection. 

[nj2va]

 

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Another thing you love to see- with that amplified upper ridge there will be plenty of HP at the surface over central Canada, and the flow between the -EPO and the TPV provides a mechanism to inject Polar air into the pattern, so going forward those Highs will be legit as they press southward and meet disturbances in the flow across the southern US. Just need a little timing, as usual.

 

Give me a big ol’ banana High. 

[jayyy]

When bob gets excited about the impending longwave pattern, you know shit is getting real. My dude doesn’t come back for fantasy looks.


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[midatlanticweather]

2 minutes ago, jayyy said:

When bob gets excited about the impending longwave pattern, you know shit is getting real. My dude doesn’t come back for fantasy looks.


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@Bob Chillis legend! Happy to see him!