Dec/Jan Medium/Long Range Disco

[poolz1]

9 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Just looking at the next 10-11 days, looks too warm for snow.  WB 18Z GEFS.  Maybe it will look different by the end of this week.  H5 maps may look perfect but it still has to be 32 or below.  I am not being pessimistic about winter, just suggest people look for some cold air being established first, then look for shortwaves.

Will, go on TT and look at the GEFS 850 anom from 6 days ago and compare to the current look.  It didn't do a bad job.  But the glaring difference between 6 days ago and now is why we track every sw as long as it takes a decent track.  

 

A sneaky high nosing in, a ns wave that wasnt modeled ushers in cold enough air etc... The hints of a transient 50/50 out at D10-11 can throw a wrench in that look if it gets some legs over the next few days.

[WxUSAF]

It’s true that we don’t often cash in at the beginning of a good pattern. And I still think anything before 2024 is probably a mixed event or a light event outside the far N/W burbs and mountains. That’s fine for me! 
 

But we are (still for now) not charlotte NC or something. We don’t need cross polar flow, some epic -NAO, or Michigan to be buried in snow to have a chance. We don’t even need below normal temps! 

[EastCoast NPZ]

29 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Just looking at the next 10-11 days, looks too warm for snow.  WB 18Z GEFS.  Maybe it will look different by the end of this week.  H5 maps may look perfect but it still has to be 32 or below.  I am not being pessimistic about winter, just suggest people look for some cold air being established first, then look for shortwaves.

Lots of cold in Mexico.  The southern stream system should be able to tap into that.

[brooklynwx99]

i mean, this is a gorgeous look on the GEFS still. strong ridge into northern Canada, -EPO forming, NAO trending neutral, and split flow. very active and more than cold enough

[Ralph Wiggum]

47 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Just looking at the next 10-11 days, looks too warm for snow.  WB 18Z GEFS.  Maybe it will look different by the end of this week.  H5 maps may look perfect but it still has to be 32 or below.  I am not being pessimistic about winter, just suggest people look for some cold air being established first, then look for shortwaves.

Word of caution...don't use an ens means to base temps for precip types verbatim. One or 2 mega warm members can skew that severely. 

[cbmclean]

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Word of caution...don't use an ens means to base temps for precip types verbatim. One or 2 mega warm members can skew that severely. 

Is there a place where you can get info on individual GEFS members easily.  Since it is an NCEP product I assume it is free somewhere, but certainly not available on Tropical Tidbits and I am too cheap to spring for WeatherBell (or maybe to timid to ask the wife's permission ).

[Stradivarious]

A volcano just erupted in Iceland. Is there any thought how such an event might influence our weather this winter?

 

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67756413.amp

 

https://x.com/spahn711/status/1736881737928433857?s=46&t=K9uUZ2ybIyt0zkGgj22-dA

[cbmclean]

5 minutes ago, Stradivarious said:

A volcano just erupted in Iceland. Is there any thought how such an event might influence our weather this winter?

 

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67756413.amp

Based on those pictures it does not seem very explosive.  In order to significantly impact weather/climate the ash/SO2/water vapor has to be propelled high into the atmosphere.

[nw baltimore wx]

3 minutes ago, Stradivarious said:

A volcano just erupted in Iceland. Is there any thought how such an event might influence our weather this winter?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67756413.amp

I’m not an expert and may be way off, but I doubt it has much if any impact. It looks like a fissure eruption and they don’t have the ash plume like the explosive eruptions. 

[WxUSAF]

15 minutes ago, Stradivarious said:

A volcano just erupted in Iceland. Is there any thought how such an event might influence our weather this winter?

 

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67756413.amp

 

https://x.com/spahn711/status/1736881737928433857?s=46&t=K9uUZ2ybIyt0zkGgj22-dA

 

8 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Based on those pictures it does not seem very explosive.  In order to significantly impact weather/climate the ash/SO2/water vapor has to be propelled high into the atmosphere.

 

8 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I’m not an expert and may be way off, but I doubt it has much if any impact. It looks like a fissure eruption and they don’t have the ash plume like the explosive eruptions. 

Zero impact 

[Prestige Worldwide]

Bam already breaking down our pattern change that hasn’t even happened yet- that’s how we do winter weather around here https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1736916608130429335?s=46&t=j_-aw-4tjFwrt5AoXKNk5A

[paulythegun]

A volcano just erupted in Iceland. Is there any thought how such an event might influence our weather this winter?
 
 
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67756413.amp
 
https://x.com/spahn711/status/1736881737928433857?s=46&t=K9uUZ2ybIyt0zkGgj22-dA

Lava limits snow ratios. Don’t count on 10 to 1. We need the magnum rock to solidify and cool if it’s going to support accumulations.

[das]

1 hour ago, Stradivarious said:

A volcano just erupted in Iceland. Is there any thought how such an event might influence our weather this winter?

The common understanding has been that short-term volcanic impacts on sensible weather were largely limited to equatorward significant eruptions (like Pinatubo) cooling worldwide weather for a year or two but recent research points to greater duration and impact for significant poleward eruptions. (The current Icelandic eruption is not significant in either ash or sulfur emissions at a global climatological scale). This is an interesting read on the subject if you are so inclined:

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2221810120

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

Bam already breaking down our pattern change that hasn’t even happened yet- that’s how we do winter weather around here https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1736916608130429335?s=46&t=j_-aw-4tjFwrt5AoXKNk5A

Here’s the thing about these warminista trolls….they imply that for us to get any “real” wintery period we first need a -epo/pan that dumps arctic cross polar air into the west and central US which lays down expansive snow cover, then after that we need a -nao to develop and the epo ridge to transition into a pna ridge shifting the cold east and locking it under the nao. Then if we are lucky and that happens as the mjo is slowly progressing into 8/1/2 but not too strongly and not too weak either and it has to stall and spend like a month in phase 8/1 and then we need the Stj to also be active and then if the SPV has a SSW and the tPV couples and with a lot of luck and timing and if no solar flare comes along to ruin it we have a slim chance at snow! 
 

Now here’s the thing…going on the last 7 years they’ve been mostly right. Yea we’ve lucked into random snows here and there but we haven’t really had a truly snowy period in there. Nothing like Jan/Feb 1996, Jan 2000, 2003, 2009/10, 2014, Feb/Mar 2015, Jan 2016.  Since then the best we can do is mostly one off fluke snows in an otherwise crap pattern. 
 

This year is a good test. We finally have favorable pac forcing, along with a favorable qbo and solar.  But who knows maybe they’re right and it is THAT hard to get real winter anymore. I doubt it. Even I’m not ready to go there. But if they are right, then it pointless. The things they imply need to happen to get snow…are just ridiculous and not worth tracking if true. But keep in mind Webber is from the Southeast I think which might explain his bias. It is that hard to get snow down there now. They were on the edge of being realistically able to get snow often even 50 years ago. It’s like a unicorn and leprechaun sighting for them mow. Maybe he is just expressing his frustration. 

[nw baltimore wx]

This should go in banter but it’s great to see @das posting.

[das]

1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said:

This should go in banter but it’s great to see @das posting.

It’s been a busy time. Now that I am going back and forth between VT and DC/MD regularly again, I should be mucking around in here again. If y’all will have me. 

[clskinsfan]

[paulythegun]

Here’s the thing about these warminista trolls….they imply that for us to get any “real” wintery period we first need a -epo/pan that dumps arctic cross polar air into the west and central US which lays down expansive snow cover, then after that we need a -nao to develop and the epo ridge to transition into a pna ridge shifting the cold east and locking it under the nao. Then if we are lucky and that happens as the mjo is slowly progressing into 8/1/2 but not too strongly and not too weak either and it has to stall and spend like a month in phase 8/1 and then we need the Stj to also be active and then if the SPV has a SSW and the tPV couples and with a lot of luck and timing and if no solar flare comes along to ruin it we have a slim chance at snow! 
 
Now here’s the thing…going on the last 7 years they’ve been mostly right. Yea we’ve lucked into random snows here and there but we haven’t really had a truly snowy period in there. Nothing like Jan/Feb 1996, Jan 2000, 2003, 2009/10, 2014, Feb/Mar 2015, Jan 2016.  Since then the best we can do is mostly one off fluke snows in an otherwise crap pattern. 
 
This year is a good test. We finally have favorable pac forcing, along with a favorable qbo and solar.  But who knows maybe they’re right and it is THAT hard to get real winter anymore. I doubt it. Even I’m not ready to go there. But if they are right, then it pointless. The things they imply need to happen to get snow…are just ridiculous and not worth tracking if true. But keep in mind Webber is from the Southeast I think which might explain his bias. It is that hard to get snow down there now. They were on the edge of being realistically able to get snow often even 50 years ago. It’s like a unicorn and leprechaun sighting for them mow. Maybe he is just expressing his frustration. 

We’re definitely not there yet (to the point of hopelessness) you’re totally right. We have recent data to confirm that. Tons of snow the last couple decades. It was always going to be a slow bleed.

But at the same time: it’s objectively warmer, and that warmth is concentrated in the northern hemisphere, during winter. Bad! Haha.

[jayyy]

Sweeeeeet

[cbmclean]

44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But keep in mind Webber is from the Southeast I think which might explain his bias.

He is actually from very near my hometown of Hope Mills, NC which is in the "mid-south-eastern" portion of NC if that makes any sense.  Our snow climatology is...poor.  I believe he lives in New Mexico now.  He seems to revel in torches for the entire east coast; not sure what caused that grudge.

[Scraff]

2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Just looking at the next 10-11 days, looks too warm for snow.  WB 18Z GEFS.  Maybe it will look different by the end of this week.  H5 maps may look perfect but it still has to be 32 or below.  I am not being pessimistic about winter, just suggest people look for some cold air being established first, then look for shortwaves.

Shut up Chuck! Oh for fuck sake. Open your freezer for some -NAO cold!!  Oh damn. I’m truly sorry. Did I say that out loud? Wait-you’re not even Chuck!? Brother Will. My bad. Wrong beat up Chuck thread. Happy Monday night  after a holiday party…SOS  

[Volcanic Winter]

2 hours ago, cbmclean said:

Based on those pictures it does not seem very explosive.  In order to significantly impact weather/climate the ash/SO2/water vapor has to be propelled high into the atmosphere.

Correct. You’d need something Laki sized from the 1780’s, which had its own explosive component in there as well. 5x the total SO2 release of Pinatubo and caused significant climate disruption (though not all of that would’ve breached the tropopause).  

This won’t be that by any stretch (Laki was only one of three such enormous Icelandic fissure eruptions known in the entire Holocene), though it’s more intense than the three Fagradalsfjall eruptions so far since 2020.

To be clear (I tend to wax a bit on comparisons), this won’t have a climate impact whatsoever.  

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

It’s true that we don’t often cash in at the beginning of a good pattern. And I still think anything before 2024 is probably a mixed event or a light event outside the far N/W burbs and mountains. That’s fine for me! 
 

But we are (still for now) not charlotte NC or something. We don’t need cross polar flow, some epic -NAO, or Michigan to be buried in snow to have a chance. We don’t even need below normal temps! 

Why is that, anyway? And looking at our previous snows...I'm curious about what percentage came as the pattern broke down vs. the beginning of it.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Here’s the thing about these warminista trolls….they imply that for us to get any “real” wintery period we first need a -epo/pan that dumps arctic cross polar air into the west and central US which lays down expansive snow cover, then after that we need a -nao to develop and the epo ridge to transition into a pna ridge shifting the cold east and locking it under the nao. Then if we are lucky and that happens as the mjo is slowly progressing into 8/1/2 but not too strongly and not too weak either and it has to stall and spend like a month in phase 8/1 and then we need the Stj to also be active and then if the SPV has a SSW and the tPV couples and with a lot of luck and timing and if no solar flare comes along to ruin it we have a slim chance at snow! 
 

Now here’s the thing…going on the last 7 years they’ve been mostly right. Yea we’ve lucked into random snows here and there but we haven’t really had a truly snowy period in there. Nothing like Jan/Feb 1996, Jan 2000, 2003, 2009/10, 2014, Feb/Mar 2015, Jan 2016.  Since then the best we can do is mostly one off fluke snows in an otherwise crap pattern. 
 

This year is a good test. We finally have favorable pac forcing, along with a favorable qbo and solar.  But who knows maybe they’re right and it is THAT hard to get real winter anymore. I doubt it. Even I’m not ready to go there. But if they are right, then it pointless. The things they imply need to happen to get snow…are just ridiculous and not worth tracking if true. But keep in mind Webber is from the Southeast I think which might explain his bias. It is that hard to get snow down there now. They were on the edge of being realistically able to get snow often even 50 years ago. It’s like a unicorn and leprechaun sighting for them mow. Maybe he is just expressing his frustration. 

And quite frankly...I thought climate stuff was gradual? Could it have really just turned on a dime after 2016 and suddenly get drastically worse (as opposed to incremental changes) after one particular year? I've always been a bit skeptical of that...but hey, I'm just a layman here!

[cbmclean]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

And quite frankly...I thought climate stuff was gradual? Could it have really just turned on a dime after 2016 and suddenly get drastically worse (as opposed to incremental changes( after one particular year?

The answer is: maybe.  Climate is hypothesized to be chaotic to a certain degree, although obviously on a different time scale than weather.  Abrupt tipping points are possible in both chaotic and non-chaotic systems but I suspect systems with significant chaotic characteristics may be more prone.

[WesternFringe]

6 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Just looking at the next 10-11 days, looks too warm for snow.  WB 18Z GEFS.  Maybe it will look different by the end of this week.  H5 maps may look perfect but it still has to be 32 or below.  I am not being pessimistic about winter, just suggest people look for some cold air being established first, then look for shortwaves.

So, instead of 22 at night it might only get down to 25?  Oh no!

Also, using ensemble means for accurate temp forecasts at hr 276 is funny bro.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z GFS.  Christmas looks dry and seasonal.... not a torch.

[jayyy]

WB 0Z GFS.  Christmas looks dry and seasonal.... not a torch.

The December / Christmas torch theory has been long debunked. It’s already 12/19. Most models indicate that a reshuffle of the pattern begins in the coming 8-10ish days. We’ve known that December won’t be a torch for weeks now. A few days in the upper 40s to 50s? Sure. But no 60-80 degree days like recent years past. The current 10 day forecast calls for only 1 day above 50 for a high IMBY with nighttime temps below freezing 7 out of 10 of those days. Much different feel this year. Especially after getting a few inches of snow unexpectedly last week.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Signal still there for some type of storm Dec 27-Jan 1. Good luck trying to figure it out before Monday. Posting the GFS and Euro 500mb charts to show the complexity of the situation. Vorts spinning and diving all over the country each interaction having a different influence in how the storm plays out. I know it's been said already there isn't a ton of cold to work with prior as this seems to trigger the pattern changes we are seeing in the LR. And others also noted the storms at the start of a pattern change usually aren't 'the one'. Still think this bears close watching as a dynamic event can yield interesting results. Does anyone know our track record wrt 'complicated'?

[Heisy]

EPS still looks good to me headed into January, but it doesn’t look as good as it did on the Sunday 12z run


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