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Dec/Jan Medium/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr
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  On 12/27/2023 at 12:44 PM, CAPE said:

A bit of a longshot and probably not a big deal either way, but the last few runs of the GEFS suggest the wave that develops and slides off the coast to our south around the 2nd might be close enough for a bit of frozen, with the advertised airmass a bit colder than depicted on earlier runs. A half dozen or so members have had something. I counted 8 on the 6z GEFS. Just something to keep an eye on while we await the better chances.

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Even a slushy inch of snow on the grass in the metros would cool this place down. Waiting until the end of January for snow is not a sustainable solution in these parts.

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  On 12/27/2023 at 1:24 PM, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea SSW seems a bust.

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One of the most unreliable talking points in any winter imo. They rarely happen and when they do, the results often end up as "unexpected" (translate: no help or makes it worse lol). 

Let's focus on the troposphere. At least that connects to the ground fairly often. Lol. NAO block (of varying degrees) seems pretty likely coming up. Get that thing to tank then wait for the relax. Imho- KU hunting can't really start until that happens first. Very optimistic about winter wx chances increasing by the end of next week tho. Not really paying much attention to stuff b4 that. I'll flip the switch if something pops in the med range 

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  On 12/27/2023 at 1:30 PM, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Haven’t followed closely since about a week to ten days ago.  At that point we were looking at a transition to a good pattern around new years.  Is that off the table?  Can some give me a quick tldr on where we’re at?  Muchas gracias. 

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Bob just did. Summed it up pretty well. 

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Seems pretty clear to me that everyone has a different definition of what a pattern change is. Some think it means that it happens on an exact day and snow starts falling immediately. Some think it means that it's a gradual shift and adjustment that ultimately results in a different weather pattern with more cold and snow chances. To me the crux of our angst is that a lot of people thought that any shift in the pattern around New Years meant snow vs the slow change towards a better pattern. First world problems with the need for immediate gratification.

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  On 12/27/2023 at 1:23 PM, Prestige Worldwide said:
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Too much emphasis on requiring a SSW to have a productive pattern. We've had these events a few times in recent years and the net result was nil for impacts in our regions.

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  On 12/27/2023 at 1:24 PM, Eskimo Joe said:

I've come to the conclusion that we need to lower expectations and be happy with anything we get this year. We need to have the "well we got more snow than last year" mentality.

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Low expectations should be the mindset going into every winter tbh. Ppl set themselves up for a letdown assuming things like Nino=snowstorms or Nina=sustained cold etc. 

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  On 12/27/2023 at 1:31 PM, Bob Chill said:

One of the most unreliable talking points in any winter imo. They rarely happen and when they do, the results often end up as "unexpected" (translate: no help or makes it worse lol). 

Let's focus on the troposphere. At least that connects to the ground fairly often. Lol. NAO block (of varying degrees) seems pretty likely coming up. Get that thing to tank then wait for the relax. Imho- KU hunting can't really start until that happens first. Very optimistic about winter wx chances increasing by the end of next week tho. Not really paying much attention to stuff b4 that. I'll flip the switch if something pops in the med range 

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Didn't see this before posting my ssw comment. Well said....exactly.

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  On 12/27/2023 at 1:38 PM, aldie 22 said:

Seems pretty clear to me that everyone has a different definition of what a pattern change is. Some think it means that it happens on an exact day and snow starts falling immediately. Some think it means that it's a gradual shift and adjustment that ultimately results in a different weather pattern with more cold and snow chances. To me the crux of our angst is that a lot of people thought that any shift in the pattern around New Years meant snow vs the slow change towards a better pattern. First world problems with the need for immediate gratification.

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The macro pattern problem has been basically all of NA north of 40N has been roasting. Canada has been wall to wall. Sure, continental air can be cold this time of year but it's been off and on humid and pacificy for weeks. Flow has been slow underneath that too so air has been stale far more often than fresh for weeks. The only pattern change that matters to me is getting rid if that. It's Dec, Atlantic is warm, and snowcover to our north and west has been abysmal. We'll never snow like this even if the mids are ok sometimes. 

Winter flow (when it's cold enough to snow) generally keeps reinforcing continental air in waves. Carving down the latitudes. We've had none of that. Nobody has really. Shouldnt be too suprising that no track can get it right to snow regardless. 

Front side of the "potential" nao block should start the carve process in the east. Cold should come in waves with increasing depth in the CONUS. That (to me) is the most important pattern change. Stale pacific air is useless to snow weenies. Kick that out and see what happens. 

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A major SSWE is too much of a gamble imho.  The HLs are already primed for being blocky this winter and throwing in a major shake up could have undesirable results.  Id love to see the PV just get kicked in the stones a few times throughout the early-mid season.  Upping the ante for a decent stretch of chances for cold and snow in an overall blocked pattern. As soon as the GEFS backed away from the idea of a true split the LR now looks much better than yesterdays runs. Just my novice 2c. 

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  On 12/27/2023 at 1:57 PM, MillvilleWx said:

FYP

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if it's gonna do this stuff in the short/mid-range, I wonder why I'd look at it over the EURO. I know it earned some respect locally with how it sniffed out Jan 2022, but beyond that I don't think it's been any better. It's ens are still seemingly heavily prone to overestimating precip/snow.

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  On 12/27/2023 at 1:55 PM, NorthArlington101 said:

GFS has been terrible with this one.

 

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To be fair to the poor, underappreciated, and often bashed GFS... lol... Upper level lows are dynamic balls of energy. The wobble and evolve in unpredictable ways. Precipitation is dynamically driven in a tight area unlike upglide/overrunning. Models never get that stuff right. Especially in a mixed event scenario. Even 24 hours out (or real time) there is a level of unpredictably that makes it fun to experience (during legit snow events). 

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  On 12/27/2023 at 1:58 PM, poolz1 said:

A major SSWE is too much of a gamble imho.  The HLs are already primed for being blocky this winter and throwing in a major shake up could have undesirable results.  Id love to see the PV just get kicked in the stones a few times throughout the early-mid season.  Upping the ante for a decent stretch of chances for cold and snow in an overall blocked pattern. As soon as the GEFS backed away from the idea of a true split the LR now looks much better than yesterdays runs. Just my novice 2c. 

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SSWs happen in about 60% of seasons in the northern hemisphere. How and if they influence the troposphere is much more variable. The current background forcing: Nino, -PDO, east QBO, and solar forcing is about primo for a SSW this winter. But those factors also already support northern blocking! And that northern blocking forces the SSW, which reinforces that block! So there’s some chicken and the egg arguments here. 

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  On 12/27/2023 at 2:00 PM, NorthArlington101 said:

if it's gonna do this stuff in the short/mid-range, I wonder why I'd look at it over the EURO. I know it earned some respect locally with how it sniffed out Jan 2022, but beyond that I don't think it's been any better. Its ens are still seemingly heavily prone to overestimating precip/snow.

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This is just one small example but I’ve been paying close attention to snow in northern NH since we’re spending New Years up there.  Euro keeps bouncing around nearly as much as GFS with handling features inside 100 hours up there.   

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  On 12/27/2023 at 1:46 PM, Ralph Wiggum said:

Too much emphasis on requiring a SSW to have a productive pattern. We've had these events a few times in recent years and the net result was nil for impacts in our regions.

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As I recall not too long ago the last time, we got a SSW all the cold air dumped west of the Mississippi, and we went into the 60's and near 70 degrees. 

 

Also, the way things are set up right now a pattern change is not just going to happen overnight it will be a step back down into winter and it will likely take at least 10-15 days from this point to get rid of all the humidity, Pacific Air, Gulf of Mexico Air, and also Atlantic Air.  It's just not the Pacific Air in the Lower 48 this year. 

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  On 12/27/2023 at 1:50 PM, Bob Chill said:

The macro pattern problem has been basically all of NA north of 40N has been roasting. Canada has been wall to wall. Sure, continental air can be cold this time of year but it's been off and on humid and pacificy for weeks. Flow has been slow underneath that too so air has been stale far more often than fresh for weeks. The only pattern change that matters to me is getting rid if that. It's Dec, Atlantic is warm, and snowcover to our north and west has been abysmal. We'll never snow like this even if the mids are ok sometimes. 

Winter flow (when it's cold enough to snow) generally keeps reinforcing continental air in waves. Carving down the latitudes. We've had none of that. Nobody has really. Shouldnt be too suprising that no track can get it right to snow regardless. 

Front side of the "potential" nao block should start the carve process in the east. Cold should come in waves with increasing depth in the CONUS. That (to me) is the most important pattern change. Stale pacific air is useless to snow weenies. Kick that out and see what happens. 

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Well said!  Think when the last time was a cold front blasted out of the Great Lakes and swung through well offshore with 35-45 winds behind it with temperatures falling from the 40's down into the teens and single digits. 

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