Eskimo Joe Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 On 12/27/2023 at 12:44 PM, CAPE said: A bit of a longshot and probably not a big deal either way, but the last few runs of the GEFS suggest the wave that develops and slides off the coast to our south around the 2nd might be close enough for a bit of frozen, with the advertised airmass a bit colder than depicted on earlier runs. A half dozen or so members have had something. I counted 8 on the 6z GEFS. Just something to keep an eye on while we await the better chances. Expand Even a slushy inch of snow on the grass in the metros would cool this place down. Waiting until the end of January for snow is not a sustainable solution in these parts. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 On 12/27/2023 at 12:51 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Even a slushy inch of snow on the grass in the metros would cool this place down. Waiting until the end of January for snow is not a sustainable solution in these parts. Expand are we pushing it to the end of January now? 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 Only 10/51 now https://x.com/raleighwx/status/1739994462653444415?s=46&t=j_-aw-4tjFwrt5AoXKNk5A 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 On 12/27/2023 at 1:21 PM, BristowWx said: are we pushing it to the end of January now? Expand I've come to the conclusion that we need to lower expectations and be happy with anything we get this year. We need to have the "well we got more snow than last year" mentality. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 On 12/27/2023 at 1:23 PM, Prestige Worldwide said: Only 10/51 now https://x.com/raleighwx/status/1739994462653444415?s=46&t=j_-aw-4tjFwrt5AoXKNk5A Expand Yea SSW seems a bust. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 Haven’t followed closely since about a week to ten days ago. At that point we were looking at a transition to a good pattern around new years. Is that off the table? Can some give me a quick tldr on where we’re at? Muchas gracias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 On 12/27/2023 at 1:24 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Yea SSW seems a bust. Expand One of the most unreliable talking points in any winter imo. They rarely happen and when they do, the results often end up as "unexpected" (translate: no help or makes it worse lol). Let's focus on the troposphere. At least that connects to the ground fairly often. Lol. NAO block (of varying degrees) seems pretty likely coming up. Get that thing to tank then wait for the relax. Imho- KU hunting can't really start until that happens first. Very optimistic about winter wx chances increasing by the end of next week tho. Not really paying much attention to stuff b4 that. I'll flip the switch if something pops in the med range 23 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 On 12/27/2023 at 1:30 PM, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Haven’t followed closely since about a week to ten days ago. At that point we were looking at a transition to a good pattern around new years. Is that off the table? Can some give me a quick tldr on where we’re at? Muchas gracias. Expand Bob just did. Summed it up pretty well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 GEPS hinting at a legit NA block building westward to Baffin Island. Cold airmass underneath verbatim. 6z GEFS has the same idea. 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 On 12/27/2023 at 1:33 PM, BristowWx said: Bob just did. Summed it up pretty well. Expand He’s ^ not a jumper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 Seems pretty clear to me that everyone has a different definition of what a pattern change is. Some think it means that it happens on an exact day and snow starts falling immediately. Some think it means that it's a gradual shift and adjustment that ultimately results in a different weather pattern with more cold and snow chances. To me the crux of our angst is that a lot of people thought that any shift in the pattern around New Years meant snow vs the slow change towards a better pattern. First world problems with the need for immediate gratification. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 On 12/27/2023 at 1:23 PM, Prestige Worldwide said: Only 10/51 now https://x.com/raleighwx/status/1739994462653444415?s=46&t=j_-aw-4tjFwrt5AoXKNk5A Expand Too much emphasis on requiring a SSW to have a productive pattern. We've had these events a few times in recent years and the net result was nil for impacts in our regions. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 On 12/27/2023 at 1:24 PM, Eskimo Joe said: I've come to the conclusion that we need to lower expectations and be happy with anything we get this year. We need to have the "well we got more snow than last year" mentality. Expand Low expectations should be the mindset going into every winter tbh. Ppl set themselves up for a letdown assuming things like Nino=snowstorms or Nina=sustained cold etc. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 On 12/27/2023 at 1:31 PM, Bob Chill said: One of the most unreliable talking points in any winter imo. They rarely happen and when they do, the results often end up as "unexpected" (translate: no help or makes it worse lol). Let's focus on the troposphere. At least that connects to the ground fairly often. Lol. NAO block (of varying degrees) seems pretty likely coming up. Get that thing to tank then wait for the relax. Imho- KU hunting can't really start until that happens first. Very optimistic about winter wx chances increasing by the end of next week tho. Not really paying much attention to stuff b4 that. I'll flip the switch if something pops in the med range Expand Didn't see this before posting my ssw comment. Well said....exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 On 12/27/2023 at 1:38 PM, aldie 22 said: Seems pretty clear to me that everyone has a different definition of what a pattern change is. Some think it means that it happens on an exact day and snow starts falling immediately. Some think it means that it's a gradual shift and adjustment that ultimately results in a different weather pattern with more cold and snow chances. To me the crux of our angst is that a lot of people thought that any shift in the pattern around New Years meant snow vs the slow change towards a better pattern. First world problems with the need for immediate gratification. Expand The macro pattern problem has been basically all of NA north of 40N has been roasting. Canada has been wall to wall. Sure, continental air can be cold this time of year but it's been off and on humid and pacificy for weeks. Flow has been slow underneath that too so air has been stale far more often than fresh for weeks. The only pattern change that matters to me is getting rid if that. It's Dec, Atlantic is warm, and snowcover to our north and west has been abysmal. We'll never snow like this even if the mids are ok sometimes. Winter flow (when it's cold enough to snow) generally keeps reinforcing continental air in waves. Carving down the latitudes. We've had none of that. Nobody has really. Shouldnt be too suprising that no track can get it right to snow regardless. Front side of the "potential" nao block should start the carve process in the east. Cold should come in waves with increasing depth in the CONUS. That (to me) is the most important pattern change. Stale pacific air is useless to snow weenies. Kick that out and see what happens. 24 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 On 12/27/2023 at 4:01 AM, NorthArlington101 said: I guess I wouldn’t bet my life this wouldn’t happen, but it’s concerning how bad the gfs is 4 days out. Expand GFS has been terrible with this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 On 12/27/2023 at 1:55 PM, NorthArlington101 said: GFS has been terrible Expand FYP 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 A major SSWE is too much of a gamble imho. The HLs are already primed for being blocky this winter and throwing in a major shake up could have undesirable results. Id love to see the PV just get kicked in the stones a few times throughout the early-mid season. Upping the ante for a decent stretch of chances for cold and snow in an overall blocked pattern. As soon as the GEFS backed away from the idea of a true split the LR now looks much better than yesterdays runs. Just my novice 2c. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 On 12/27/2023 at 1:57 PM, MillvilleWx said: FYP Expand if it's gonna do this stuff in the short/mid-range, I wonder why I'd look at it over the EURO. I know it earned some respect locally with how it sniffed out Jan 2022, but beyond that I don't think it's been any better. It's ens are still seemingly heavily prone to overestimating precip/snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 On 12/27/2023 at 1:55 PM, NorthArlington101 said: GFS has been terrible with this one. Expand To be fair to the poor, underappreciated, and often bashed GFS... lol... Upper level lows are dynamic balls of energy. The wobble and evolve in unpredictable ways. Precipitation is dynamically driven in a tight area unlike upglide/overrunning. Models never get that stuff right. Especially in a mixed event scenario. Even 24 hours out (or real time) there is a level of unpredictably that makes it fun to experience (during legit snow events). 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 I’m upset the transient pac ridge leads to about 12 hours of muted ridging in the east. It’s awful. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 On 12/27/2023 at 1:58 PM, poolz1 said: A major SSWE is too much of a gamble imho. The HLs are already primed for being blocky this winter and throwing in a major shake up could have undesirable results. Id love to see the PV just get kicked in the stones a few times throughout the early-mid season. Upping the ante for a decent stretch of chances for cold and snow in an overall blocked pattern. As soon as the GEFS backed away from the idea of a true split the LR now looks much better than yesterdays runs. Just my novice 2c. Expand SSWs happen in about 60% of seasons in the northern hemisphere. How and if they influence the troposphere is much more variable. The current background forcing: Nino, -PDO, east QBO, and solar forcing is about primo for a SSW this winter. But those factors also already support northern blocking! And that northern blocking forces the SSW, which reinforces that block! So there’s some chicken and the egg arguments here. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 On 12/27/2023 at 2:00 PM, NorthArlington101 said: if it's gonna do this stuff in the short/mid-range, I wonder why I'd look at it over the EURO. I know it earned some respect locally with how it sniffed out Jan 2022, but beyond that I don't think it's been any better. Its ens are still seemingly heavily prone to overestimating precip/snow. Expand This is just one small example but I’ve been paying close attention to snow in northern NH since we’re spending New Years up there. Euro keeps bouncing around nearly as much as GFS with handling features inside 100 hours up there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 On 12/27/2023 at 1:46 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Too much emphasis on requiring a SSW to have a productive pattern. We've had these events a few times in recent years and the net result was nil for impacts in our regions. Expand As I recall not too long ago the last time, we got a SSW all the cold air dumped west of the Mississippi, and we went into the 60's and near 70 degrees. Also, the way things are set up right now a pattern change is not just going to happen overnight it will be a step back down into winter and it will likely take at least 10-15 days from this point to get rid of all the humidity, Pacific Air, Gulf of Mexico Air, and also Atlantic Air. It's just not the Pacific Air in the Lower 48 this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 On 12/27/2023 at 1:50 PM, Bob Chill said: The macro pattern problem has been basically all of NA north of 40N has been roasting. Canada has been wall to wall. Sure, continental air can be cold this time of year but it's been off and on humid and pacificy for weeks. Flow has been slow underneath that too so air has been stale far more often than fresh for weeks. The only pattern change that matters to me is getting rid if that. It's Dec, Atlantic is warm, and snowcover to our north and west has been abysmal. We'll never snow like this even if the mids are ok sometimes. Winter flow (when it's cold enough to snow) generally keeps reinforcing continental air in waves. Carving down the latitudes. We've had none of that. Nobody has really. Shouldnt be too suprising that no track can get it right to snow regardless. Front side of the "potential" nao block should start the carve process in the east. Cold should come in waves with increasing depth in the CONUS. That (to me) is the most important pattern change. Stale pacific air is useless to snow weenies. Kick that out and see what happens. Expand Well said! Think when the last time was a cold front blasted out of the Great Lakes and swung through well offshore with 35-45 winds behind it with temperatures falling from the 40's down into the teens and single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 The NAM is very disappointing with the snowfall for the WV mountains. GFS went from something to nothing to something, and Now I feel it will go back to nothing but we’ll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 all ensembles have trended colder in the long range. i suspect this is because of the trend away from the SSW and probably a weaker pass thru 4-5-6 MJO wise which ends up reducing the early signs of our SSW (like EC ridging). If these trends continue, we should be in the game for all of january Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 27, 2023 Author Share Posted December 27, 2023 On 12/27/2023 at 2:57 PM, Rhino16 said: The NAM is very disappointing with the snowfall for the WV mountains. GFS went from something to nothing to something, and Now I feel it will go back to nothing but we’ll see. Expand When you’re looking to the NAM for guidance beyond 24 hours you really do deserve what you get. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 On 12/27/2023 at 3:14 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: When you’re looking to the NAM for guidance beyond 24 hours you really do deserve what you get. Expand Yea. Wait until it gets in range of the CRAS 1 1 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 On 12/27/2023 at 3:14 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: When you’re looking to the NAM for guidance beyond 24 hours you really do deserve what you get. Expand Good point, I should have remembered from when I made that mistake earlier this year with something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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