Heisy Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 Wouldn’t really worry about the first couple days of Jan at this point. Looks like we may very well may get a SSW. I’m all in around mid month to Feb This is epic here . 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 8 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Gfs boutta cook too with the wave after‼️ A beaut to see. It’s about to go boom. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 Just now, nj2va said: A beaut to see. It’s about to go boom. Boom 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 CCB p0rn 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 Pattern analogs are useless right now. They’re spitting out some incredibly snowy periods (1996,2010) and some years that had almost no snow (2002, 1981). Subtle differences can tilt this either way. Thanks, I was wondering about that. 1996 keeps popping as #1. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 Wow, Haymarket Va Weather.com 8 Jan. for giggles 43° 56% NW 7 mph Cloudy with rain and snow showers early changing to mainly rain showers in the afternoon. High 43F. Winds NW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60%. Humidity61% UV Index2 of 11 Sunrise7:28 am Sunset5:05 pm Mon 08 | Night 27° 60% NNW 4 mph Snow likely. Low 27F. Winds light and variable. Chance of snow 60%. 8 to 12 inches of snow expected. UV Index0 of 11 Moonrise4:48 am Waning Crescent Moonset2:06 pm TWC must get the the 12z GFS early 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: TWC must get the the 12z GFS early Funny ain’t it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 14 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Gfs boutta cook too with the wave after‼️ ‼️LET IT COOK ‼️ 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 Wooo baby, GFS brings some Christmas magic!! 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 A little digital joy to the celebration today. Nice Fantasy Storm on the LR. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Wooo baby, GFS brings some Christmas magic!! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Wooo baby, GFS brings some Christmas magic!! Temps in the low 20s too 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, paulythegun said: Thanks, I was wondering about that. 1996 keeps popping as #1. Meanwhile, that was a La Nina lol. The similarity seems to be with blocking, which we're forecasted to be headed towards. Whether that forecasted -nao comes to fruition might be what determines whether we're in here or the panic room in 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Wooo baby, GFS brings some Christmas magic!! 8 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: A little digital joy to the celebration today. Nice Fantasy Storm on the LR. 15 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Boom Prohibition on post D10 snow maps is rescinded for Christmas. 1 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Prohibition on post D10 snow maps is rescinded for Christmas. Ok, as long as you cleared it…. Lol! Just because it’s Christmas… 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Ok, as long as you cleared it…. Lol! Just because it’s Christmas… kuchera is even more LMAOO, it's like 5-6" extra bc it's that cold 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 14 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: kuchera is even more LMAOO, it's like 5-6" extra bc it's that cold Don’t hold us in suspense! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Don’t hold us in suspense! I got you 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 28 minutes ago, nj2va said: CCB p0rn All I want for Christmas is fringed 3 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: I got you Plenty of room to the south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 Textbook for major east coast snowstorm. 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 It’s hard not getting excited (unless you’re Webb or a few downers here) where we’re going in January looking at medium range ensembles. GEFS is pushing + height anomalies into GL on NYD. I picked this panel a few days later as -NAO is settling in but check out the Pacific. -EPO, +PNA (and cross polar flow) with a STJ split flow undercutting the ridge with a parade of vorts continuing to enter the CONUS. Roll this forward a few more days and I find it hard to believe we don’t see accumulating snow in the first 7-10 days of January. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: All I want for Christmas is fringed lol, I literally looked at this and thought this gfs storm really has it all, Hoffman is even fringed! 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 High pressure in a nice spot anchored in there too. Cold with lots of precip. Gotta love gulf lows bombing underneath a legit air mass. Beautiful at h5 too. Only 2 weeks away…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 It’s hard not getting excited (unless you’re Webb or a few downers here) where we’re going in January looking at medium range ensembles. GEFS is pushing + height anomalies into GL on NYD. I picked this panel a few days later as -NAO is settling in but check out the Pacific. -EPO, +PNA (and cross polar flow) with a STJ split flow undercutting the ridge with a parade of vorts continuing to enter the CONUS. Roll this forward a few more days and I find it hard to believe we don’t see accumulating snow in the first 7-10 days of January.This frame here definitely intrigues me. The big storm being shown today is roughly 2 weeks out but the pattern load up that eventually rolls downstream to setup that storm is depicted at day 7-8. This timeframe will be crucial to watch over the next 5ish days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 25, 2023 Author Share Posted December 25, 2023 GFS = not much to see here If it’s not 40” in 16 days I want nothing to do with it Merry Christmas 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: All I want for Christmas is fringed Perhaps Orthodox Christmas 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 13 minutes ago, jayyy said: This frame here definitely intrigues me. The big storm being shown today is roughly 2 weeks out but the pattern load up that eventually rolls downstream to setup that storm is depicted at day 7-8. This timeframe will be crucial to watch over the next 5ish days Anchors Away 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Pattern analogs are useless right now. They’re spitting out some incredibly snowy periods (1996,2010) and some years that had almost no snow (2002, 1981). Subtle differences can tilt this either way. It’s cover all bases programming. There is no help for those who deny that. Not saying that you do. Observing and documenting weather and outcomes for 50 years goes well beyond the results of model sampling examples. When a delay pattern takes over it rarely reverses. I certainly was here when in mid to late Nov the examples showed pattern change mid Dec, then Christmas, then end of month, then first few days of Jan, now moving toward mid Jan. Get to about 1/10 and it’s game over. A 10” in mid Feb is not saving winter. Delayed but not denied is really mostly delayed and in denial. 360 day examples are worth jack shit, 240 much the same. “Guidance” is a euphemism for clueless . 2 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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