Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 54 minutes ago, snowfan said: That’s not the Christmas spirit, Clark. Have a drink, go for a walk, to bed, etc. let’s not be nasty with each other tonight. That can resume on the 26th. "Very well, you may take the day. But be here all the earlier the next morning!" 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 1 hour ago, Dendrimer77 said: I personally like Weather Will's contributions, including these crazy maps. Have some Christmas cheer, man....or at least have another spiked egg nog. Merry Christmas everyone! May we all be blessed with massive snows soon. We need a snow event like yesterday. It been so long since we tracked anything. People are just eating each other for nourishment. Ripping each others hearts out and frying them in oil. Then putting those hearts in a stew with lentils and carrots. Merry Christmas to all. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 It seems since chuck mentioned a SE ridge popping and we laughed at him there seems to be a SE ridge popping in fantasy land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 It seems since chuck mentioned a SE ridge popping and we laughed at him there seems to be a SE ridge popping in fantasy land. On the ensembles or just the op?Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 18 minutes ago, Ji said: On the ensembles or just the op? Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Op. Still it’s showing itself. Could be noise. Don’t like seeing it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 Jan 5 is the strongest signal for an east coast storm on the 0z EPS. A low develops along the Gulf coast and tracks NE to just off the NC coast on the mean. 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 6z GEFS suggestive of a storm for the 2nd with possible NS interaction/phasing. EPS has it too but somewhat weaker and develops further NE. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 6z GFS for the 5th. Strong hints of a phase. It wants to drop the TPV hammer lol. Surface low develops along the SE coast. Looks interesting. Hell of a HL look. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 10 minutes ago, CAPE said: 6z GEFS suggestive of a storm for the 2nd with possible NS interaction/phasing. EPS has it too but somewhat weaker and develops further NE. GEFS also seems to like that 4-5th. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 January 2nd appetizer, 6th we get the money shot. Willing it into existence! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 6z GEFS suggestive of a storm for the 2nd with possible NS interaction/phasing. EPS has it too but somewhat weaker and develops further NE. Do we perhaps have something to track inside one week?! Even if it’s not the stronger signal of the 2, I’d gladly take a smaller event to kick things off. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 It’s Christmas. Fight tomorrow 11 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 1 minute ago, WSWL said: You know what sarcasm is right? If you've been here long enough to read year old posts, then you know creating an account just to pick/troll a member is a great way to get a special Christmas gift where you're back to just reading only again. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 Dang. That’s the quickest anyone has ever made my naughty, er, ignore list. Merry Christmas all! 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 Merry Christmas everyone! Cheers to some upcoming January awesomeness! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 Pattern analogs are useless right now. They’re spitting out some incredibly snowy periods (1996,2010) and some years that had almost no snow (2002, 1981). Subtle differences can tilt this either way. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 Sigh. This thread. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 This morning’s ensembles show something on Jan 4-6, something coming off the gulf with cold-enough temps. Still a long ways away, lets see if that potential holds. Btw, Merry Christmas to those who celebrate! Happy Holidays all! 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 Merry Christmas everyone! Cold and dry or warm and wet, we will be here to analyze, watch, and wait for those rare Christmas snow miracles. I wish you and your families a 2024 full of health, peace and happiness. Someone should start a new thread soon.... 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Pattern analogs are useless right now. They’re spitting out some incredibly snowy periods (1996,2010) and some years that had almost no snow (2002, 1981). Subtle differences can tilt this either way. You just described Nino winters in the MA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 WB 12Z 12K NAM, another midweek drought denting soaker incoming. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterFire Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Pattern analogs are useless right now. They’re spitting out some incredibly snowy periods (1996,2010) and some years that had almost no snow (2002, 1981). Subtle differences can tilt this either way. Our quest stands upon the edge of a knife. Stray but a little and it will fall, to the ruin of all… Yet hope remains while all the company is true. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 16 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z 12K NAM, another midweek drought denting soaker incoming. I hope so. I sure would love for this to be accurate for out here and not underperform as the last two events did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 Wow, Haymarket Va Weather.com 8 Jan. for giggles 43° 56% NW 7 mph Cloudy with rain and snow showers early changing to mainly rain showers in the afternoon. High 43F. Winds NW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60%. Humidity61% UV Index2 of 11 Sunrise7:28 am Sunset5:05 pm Mon 08 | Night 27° 60% NNW 4 mph Snow likely. Low 27F. Winds light and variable. Chance of snow 60%. 8 to 12 inches of snow expected. UV Index0 of 11 Moonrise4:48 am Waning Crescent Moonset2:06 pm 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 Merry Christmas everyone. Key is patience! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 23 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Wow, Haymarket Va Weather.com 8 Jan. for giggles 43° 56% NW 7 mph Cloudy with rain and snow showers early changing to mainly rain showers in the afternoon. High 43F. Winds NW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60%. Humidity61% UV Index2 of 11 Sunrise7:28 am Sunset5:05 pm Mon 08 | Night 27° 60% NNW 4 mph Snow likely. Low 27F. Winds light and variable. Chance of snow 60%. 8 to 12 inches of snow expected. UV Index0 of 11 Moonrise4:48 am Waning Crescent Moonset2:06 pm Yep 8-12 pretty common around here. A Christmas miracle 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Pattern analogs are useless right now. They’re spitting out some incredibly snowy periods (1996,2010) and some years that had almost no snow (2002, 1981). Subtle differences can tilt this either way. I will take 1996 and 2010 for $1,000 Alex! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: This morning’s ensembles show something on Jan 4-6, something coming off the gulf with cold-enough temps. Still a long ways away, lets see if that potential holds. Btw, Merry Christmas to those who celebrate! Happy Holidays all! Anytime I hear Gulf and cold enough air it makes me happy! I will drink to that! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 FWIW 12z op gfs shows a bomb off the coast Jan 3. BL a tad too warm verbatim, but it’s very close. Jan 5-6 wave a bit weaker, but with better cold air. I think I’d rather have it switch places. Weaker wave with marginal air, then bombs away on Jan 5. Usual disclaimer: it’s the op gfs so this analysis is mostly just for fun 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 Just now, Terpeast said: FWIW 12z op gfs shows a bomb off the coast Jan 3. BL a tad too warm verbatim, but it’s very close. Jan 5-6 wave a bit weaker, but with better cold air. I think I’d rather have it switch places. Weaker wave with marginal air, then bombs away on Jan 5. Usual disclaimer: it’s the op gfs so this analysis is mostly just for fun Gfs boutta cook too with the wave after‼️ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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