Blizzard of 93 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Here is a snapshot of just how undecided things are even at day 9 on the 12z Op runs… Long way to go even for even the first few days of the year to be decided. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 On 12/24/2023 at 7:10 PM, Blizzard of 93 said: Here is a snapshot of just how undecided things are even at day 9 on the 12z Op runs… Long way to go even for even the first few days of the year to be decided. Expand If you split the difference from the 12z GFS and the Euro we get hammered with snow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 On 12/24/2023 at 7:12 PM, Kevin Reilly said: If you split the difference from the 12z GFS and the Euro we get hammered with snow! Expand Exactly, & the Canadian says “what storm?”. Long way to go… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 On 12/24/2023 at 7:08 PM, Blizzard of 93 said: Exactly! Also, the GEPS looks a little different than the GEFS at the end of its run. Expand Yes, WW might have less anxiety with this look. It's pretty clear where the pattern is headed for mid to late Jan. I have always thought any NA blocking for early Jan would be a bonus, and it appears we are headed in that direction. A relatively brief period of -PNA is not a death knell in a Nino, esp if the NA is favorable. Historically a neutral/-PNA has been a feature in some of our snowiest periods during a Nino. Maybe that doesn't work as well anymore, but that's another subject. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 On 12/24/2023 at 6:44 PM, CAPE said: I see a -AO, -NAO, and a ridge over AK. Pretty damn good HL look. Expand Yesterday's ext GEFS showing the more classic -NAO look in week 3+. Sorry if already posted. Nice to see those looks continue at the end of today's runs. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 On 12/24/2023 at 7:15 PM, CAPE said: Yes, WW might have less anxiety with this look. It's pretty clear where the pattern is headed for mid to late Jan. I have always thought any NA blocking for early Jan would be a bonus, and it appears we are headed in that direction. A relatively brief period of -PNA is not a death knell in a Nino, esp if the NA is favorable. Historically a neutral/-PNA has been a feature in some of our snowiest periods during a Nino. Maybe that doesn't work as well anymore, but that's another subject. Expand Yeah, that blocking during a Nino is a big time difference maker, even with a -PNA. Historical analysis is clearcut irt that. Even can mute the decent amp MJO warm phases to where we still score in the upper SE and MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 On 12/24/2023 at 4:38 PM, clskinsfan said: This should be a snowstorm in the Shenandoah Valley in late December. Northerly winds and a nice 500 pass. Just sad. Expand Don't be too quick to give up on Friday. The Midwest gyre gives many of us soaking rain on Tuesday and Wednesday. As the upper level energy moves across Virginia on Friday, timing and a little more consolidation could give some areas a snowfall similar to Dec. 11. Only a weak surface reflection offshore and no real source of cold air to draw from tend to stack the deck, but this system carries adequate cold air. Slow it down and add a little more juice could turn the trick, something like planting surface LP over Norfolk at 10 pm Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Some of you guys worry way too much about long range stuff. I haven’t seen anything that says, “Shut the blinds”. I only see things ramping up to get started. The best month of winter isn’t for another month yet anyway. Enjoy Christmas and time with friends and family Stop hand-wringing over something you have no control over! It’s bad for the psyche. 22 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 12z EPS- Clear signal for the storm on the 5th- verbatim on the mean the interior looks favored for frozen. Next wave incoming. Indication of some degree of NS interaction with both. Really good look up top with -EPO/-NAO and TPV over N Hudson. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 On 12/24/2023 at 7:44 PM, CAPE said: 12z EPS- Clear signal for the storm on the 5th- verbatim on the mean the interior looks favored for frozen. Next wave incoming. Indication of some degree of NS interaction with both. Really good look up top with -EPO/-NAO and TPV over N Hudson. Expand But the pna 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Some of you might be surprised that -EPO (raw) is our best pattern for snowfall: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 On 12/24/2023 at 7:44 PM, MillvilleWx said: Some of you guys worry way too much about long range stuff. I haven’t seen anything that says, “Shut the blinds”. I only see things ramping up to get started. The best month of winter isn’t for another month yet anyway. Enjoy Christmas and time with friends and family Stop hand-wringing over something you have no control over! It’s bad for the psyche. Expand If our early January HECS doesn’t lock in on the guidance by tomorrow than winter is cancelled!! 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 On 12/24/2023 at 7:50 PM, WxUSAF said: If our early January HECS doesn’t lock in on the guidance by tomorrow than winter is cancelled!! Expand Personally I’m going full Jobu and sacrificing a bucket of fried chicken for the storm as we speak… 5 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 On 12/24/2023 at 7:50 PM, WxUSAF said: If our early January HECS doesn’t lock in on the guidance by tomorrow than winter is cancelled!!We are due for a Jan 6 blizzard 1 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 On 12/24/2023 at 7:44 PM, CAPE said: 12z EPS- Clear signal for the storm on the 5th- verbatim on the mean the interior looks favored for frozen. Next wave incoming. Indication of some degree of NS interaction with both. Really good look up top with -EPO/-NAO and TPV over N Hudson. Expand The 5 day 10-15 mean & the end of the 12z EPS continue the good look moving forward. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 On 12/24/2023 at 7:50 PM, WxUSAF said: If our early January HECS doesn’t lock in on the guidance by tomorrow than winter is cancelled!! Expand I only cancel winter when the temps are above freezing, it's not snowing, and there's no snow on the ground. If any of those conditions aren't met, I uncancel winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Canada torch long gone by the end of the first week in Jan thanks to a very favorable pattern across the HL region. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 On 12/24/2023 at 7:44 PM, CAPE said: 12z EPS- Clear signal for the storm on the 5th- verbatim on the mean the interior looks favored for frozen. Next wave incoming. Indication of some degree of NS interaction with both. Really good look up top with -EPO/-NAO and TPV over N Hudson. Expand I’m not quite ready to say I’d be surprised if we’re totally skunked through say January 10, but we’re heading in that direction. 1 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 On 12/24/2023 at 8:02 PM, WSWL said: I wonder what the cold is on the other side of the globe crew will come up with now? They also claim it won’t snow because of lack of snow cover and blizzard warnings are up in the plains for over a foot of snow tomorrow with no snow cover. How can that happen? Expand The plains are farther north. Mid Atlantic has many more moving parts to get right for snow. It's just tough for us in the Mid Atlantic to get good snows. I used to go up visit Chicago, relatives live up in that area. Gangsta on the mean side of Chicago so much as farts real hard, they get immobilized by meter deep snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 On 12/24/2023 at 8:14 PM, WxUSAF said: I’m not quite ready to say I’d be surprised if we’re totally skunked through say January 10, but we’re heading in that direction. Expand lots of double negatives here, so you'll be surprised if we don't get something between now and january 10th? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 On 12/24/2023 at 8:14 PM, WxUSAF said: I’m not quite ready to say I’d be surprised if we’re totally skunked through say January 10, but we’re heading in that direction. Expand It is looking a bit more complicated now than a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 That's a good +NAO on the Euro Days 7-10. This is what I was talking to psuhoffman about before, the NAO and epo/pna are inversely correlated these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 On 12/24/2023 at 8:19 PM, AtlanticWx said: lots of double negatives here, so you'll be surprised if we don't get something between now and january 10th? Expand I’m not there yet, but getting there. On 12/24/2023 at 8:23 PM, CAPE said: It is looking a bit more complicated now than a few days ago. Expand Yeah, more northern stream than previously advertised. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 On 12/24/2023 at 7:51 PM, MillvilleWx said: Personally I’m going full Jobu and sacrificing a bucket of fried chicken for the storm as we speak… Expand Good idea. Just remember...it's very bad to steal Jobu's rum. VERY bad! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 On 12/24/2023 at 7:51 PM, MillvilleWx said: Personally I’m going full Jobu and sacrificing a bucket of fried chicken for the storm as we speak… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 On 12/24/2023 at 8:27 PM, WxUSAF said: Yeah, more northern stream than previously advertised.Wow what a flip by one of our most optimistic Mets 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 24, 2023 Author Share Posted December 24, 2023 On 12/24/2023 at 7:49 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Some of you might be surprised that -EPO (raw) is our best pattern for snowfall: Expand No kidding 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 On 12/24/2023 at 8:59 PM, Ji said: Wow what a flip by one of our most optimistic Mets Expand isn't more NS a good thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 24, 2023 Author Share Posted December 24, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 On 12/24/2023 at 9:00 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: No kidding Expand It can work at times, in both Nina and Nino, but can also be cold/dry and too progressive. We often see a -EPO/-NAO combo advertised by guidance at range, but it never seems to quite work out simultaneously. Maybe this time.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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