Dec/Jan Medium/Long Range Disco

[Ji]

So you’re disappointed that a day 15 threat isn’t inside 4 days 48 hours later?  I feel sorry for your math teachers. 

The 15 day threat has been a 15 day threat for 4 days now!

[WinterWxLuvr]

22 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Location dependent. You have a place in Canaan right?

Close. But I meant here. Sounding is not that far off

[87storms]

2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

I am excited about January, but a couple weeks ago there was some hope of a discrete threat they'd upcoming week, that has since fizzled.  I am sincerely grateful about the upcoming rain this week, we need it....WB 12Z GFS.

I said this before (I think in another thread) and I meant it...I like the idea of December being a month to catch up on rain with January/Feb being snowy.  The lack of rain through the summer in Frederick and surrounding areas was legit.  However, that last storm definitely helped get the creek next to the Three Saws trailhead flowing better.  One more significant precip event would be a nice get for this area.

[Eskimo Joe]

18 minutes ago, 87storms said:

I said this before (I think in another thread) and I meant it...I like the idea of December being a month to catch up on rain with January/Feb being snowy.  The lack of rain through the summer in Frederick and surrounding areas was legit.  However, that last storm definitely helped get the creek next to the Three Saws trailhead flowing better.  One more significant precip event would be a nice get for this area.

I agree with you, but would vastly prefer it be snow that slowly melts off to recharge the aquifers.

[CAPE]

Another acceptable ens run for the 6-7th window.

[Weather Will]

Everyone on this board is nuts to a certain degree, how many people live to have it snow everyday!!!

I am sincere about being happy about storms in general.  We needed, still do need, the rain.  I live a mile from the Potomac, believe me if you want water this summer you want a lot of moisture  to fall this winter.

I don't have time to go back and look at the forum from about two weeks ago, but modeling was hinting then about storms after Christmas.  Now we are talking the week after NYs, or two weeks later.  So I understand the frustration of some about the next 10 days fizzling out, hopefully that will not continue.

i do understand why the subject matter experts hate the snow maps, but in less than a minute I can use them to see if there is any reason to look further into what is going on over the next two weeks.  Works for me....

I have refrained from posting the global snow maps beyond 10 days already.  If the rule is no snow maps outside a certain number of days, tell me what it will be and I will abide by it.

In return, I request no more talk about drugs, politics, and migration.

 

 

 

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Everyone on this board is nuts to a certain degree, how many people live to have it snow everyday!!!

I am sincere about being happy about storms in general.  We needed, still do need, the rain.  I live a mile from the Potomac, believe me if you want water this summer you want a lot of moisture  to fall this winter.

I don't have time to go back and look at the forum from about two weeks ago, but modeling was hinting then about storms after Christmas.  Now we are talking the week after NYs, or two weeks later.  So I understand the frustration of some about the next 10 days fizzling out, hopefully that will not continue.

i do understand why the subject matter experts hate the snow maps, but in less than a minute I can use them to see if there is any reason to look further into what is going on over the next two weeks.  Works for me....

I have refrained from posting the global snow maps beyond 10 days already.  If the rule is no snow maps outside a certain number of days, tell me what it will be and I will abide by it.

In return, I request no more talk about drugs, politics, and migration.

 

 

 

Wait, so I can't mention weed while poring over a HH run?

[Weather Will]

Merry Christmas, Cape.

[mappy]

Sigh this thread 

[Paleocene]

That post where the random guy mentioned inhaling the second hand crystal meth was probably one of the best posts of all time on this board (excepting of couse @Jebman 's finest). Sorry @Weather Will

[Weather Will]

WB latest GEFS extended, looks like the 7 day period ending January 12 will have below normal temps and above normal precipitation.

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Merry Christmas, Cape.

Likewise WW.

I am a little high rn, but I won't talk politics. It has no place here.

[WinterFire]

12 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I don't have time to go back and look at the forum from about two weeks ago, but modeling was hinting then about storms after Christmas.  Now we are talking the week after NYs, or two weeks later.  So I understand the frustration of some about the next 10 days fizzling out, hopefully that will not continue.

It might be worth looking again, because no one seriously talked about anything other than a pattern change coming around or just after Christmas. That remains on track to happen as it has been discussed since the 12th or 13th. Some op runs (and even some ensemble runs hinted) at a shot potential next week, but that was never terribly likely or realistic. 
 

What has happened instead is that people read this thread and hone in on the rip-and-read blue pixels that less knowledgeable posters got excited for and confused that with an accurate analysis of model predictions. The can hasn’t been kicked, at least not on the models. The only reason that some people think that is because they are confusing a specific storm that showed up once on guidance with a set-in-stone prediction. 
 

The can is not being kicked, the pattern is on track to change as forecast weeks ago. Cold air is moving in and appears to be more stable after the new year…as predicted by weeklies earlier this month. Don’t confuse weenie expectations with model forecasts. 

[Weather Will]

9 minutes ago, WinterFire said:

It might be worth looking again, because no one seriously talked about anything other than a pattern change coming around or just after Christmas. That remains on track to happen as it has been discussed since the 12th or 13th. Some op runs (and even some ensemble runs hinted) at a shot potential next week, but that was never terribly likely or realistic. 
 

What has happened instead is that people read this thread and hone in on the rip-and-read blue pixels that less knowledgeable posters got excited for and confused that with an accurate analysis of model predictions. The can hasn’t been kicked, at least not on the models. The only reason that some people think that is because they are confusing a specific storm that showed up once on guidance with a set-in-stone prediction. 
 

The can is not being kicked, the pattern is on track to change as forecast weeks ago. Cold air is moving in and appears to be more stable after the new year…as predicted by weeklies earlier this month. Don’t confuse weenie expectations with model forecasts. 

From Dec. 15th.

GEFS continues to look good for Christmas week. now we have BN heights beforehand as well as AN heights poking towards Greenland

[Weather Will]

Last one.

From Dec. 16th

Still seeing consistent indications on the ens means for a coastal storm in the 27-29th window. Last 2 runs of the GEFS have a pretty decent signal for frozen in the MA, esp inland with temps expected to be marginal.

I am not a meteorologist, but I am a lawyer, I don't make up facts.

[WinterFire]

 This is the same time from today’s 18z GFS. Not a lot of daylight between them, I don’t think?

[WinterFire]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Last one.

Dec. 16th

Still seeing consistent indications on the ens means for a coastal storm in the 27-29th window. Last 2 runs of the GEFS have a pretty decent signal for frozen in the MA, esp inland with temps expected to be marginal.

 

And there is indeed a coastal at this time frame, though I will grant that temps are worse than marginal, even inland. Which should have been anticipated given the airmass we are working to scour out. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The tran·si·tion appears underway

https://ibb.co/120TKFb

Sorry but nothing looks good to me until after Jan 6th. We want a low pressure in the N. Pacific Ocean in January.

[WinterFire]

11 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Last one.

From Dec. 16th

Still seeing consistent indications on the ens means for a coastal storm in the 27-29th window. Last 2 runs of the GEFS have a pretty decent signal for frozen in the MA, esp inland with temps expected to be marginal.

I am not a meteorologist, but I am a lawyer, I don't make up facts.

I’m not saying you are making things up, and I’m definitely not trying to suggest that there weren’t people on this board who got excited about snow potential next week. Actually, I think this was a very helpful exchange for me to see just how much distance there can be between a correct (assuming the next few days don’t see a pattern collapse) model forecast and the ways in which we interpret it, especially on this board. 
 

Anyway, I’m not trying to come for you, and I’m sorry it’s been piling on to your specific post. You certainly are not the only one who has mentioned can-kicking, and I think you’ve at least been sincere.
 

Other posters, on the other hand…

[stormtracker]

15 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The tran·si·tion appears underway

https://ibb.co/120TKFb

Sorry but nothing looks good to me until after Jan 6th. We want a low pressure in the N. Pacific Ocean in January.

I’m so conflicted here. 

[Weather Will]

18 minutes ago, WinterFire said:

I’m not saying you are making things up, and I’m definitely not trying to suggest that there weren’t people on this board who got excited about snow potential next week. Actually, I think this was a very helpful exchange for me to see just how much distance there can be between a correct (assuming the next few days don’t see a pattern collapse) model forecast and the ways in which we interpret it, especially on this board. 
 

Anyway, I’m not trying to come for you, and I’m sorry it’s been piling on to your specific post. You certainly are not the only one who has mentioned can-kicking, and I think you’ve at least been sincere.
 

Other posters, on the other hand…

No worries, live long and prosper!

[eduggs]

33 minutes ago, WinterFire said:

 This is the same time from today’s 18z GFS. Not a lot of daylight between them, I don’t think?

That's why anomaly charts are overrated. People assume blue always means good. I can't count the number of times with all of my fingers and toes over the past two winters that 10 day+ anomaly charts gave a false impressions of a favorable period. It's much better to simply loop the raw 500mb heights with vorticity to observe the progression. But people have developed this bad habit of obsessing over the anomalies. 

[Weather Will]

Talk about temperature busts, most tv Mets were calling for upper 50s on Christmas, looks a lot cooler on WB 0Z 3K NAM.

[psuhoffman]

24 minutes ago, eduggs said:

That's why anomaly charts are overrated. People assume blue always means good. I can't count the number of times with all of my fingers and toes over the past two winters that 10 day+ anomaly charts gave a false impressions of a favorable period. It's much better to simply loop the raw 500mb heights with vorticity to observe the progression. But people have developed this bad habit of obsessing over the anomalies. 

I mean this with no snark, just trying to help. But that map there isn’t indicative of a good snow setup for us. 

Its subtle but the +NAO and ridging in the western Atlantic near 50/50 makes a big difference. If there was a trough there then that’s a great look. 
 

But ignore the colors and look at the flow. It’s straight out of the south. Blue over us doesn’t = good snow pattern. Think basic wave physics. Any wave approaching from the west will have a southerly flow ahead of it.  If we’re going to have an amplified trough like that we need a mechanism to suppress the southerly flow. Blocking!!!  It’s not there so any approaching wave in that look it very likely to cut and drive the thermal boundary way northwest of us. Add in a lack of any antecedent cold and that was never a good look. I say this with no ill intent just trying to help for future reference, but looking at that and thinking it’s good is user error. 
 

There are ways to snow without blocking but we would need a more progressive less amplified long wave configuration than that (the broad bowl @Bob Chilland @CAPE are always referencing or a trough axis further east and get lucky with a perfect timed late phase and tuck… only way that look there works is either an arctic antecedent airmass then maybe a front end thump or a lucky secondary development but both of those are long shot fluke type things.  
 

That look above is however a good loading pattern to get to a better pattern a few days later  that amplified trough will move northeast and set up the suppression we need for the next wave or two to have a shot.  With luck the wave break can even improve the NAO.  So people were right to look at that as positive in the longer term but wrong to think that wave was ever a real threat.  

 

 

[eduggs]

23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I mean this with no snark, just trying to help. But that map there isn’t indicative of a good snow setup for us. 

Its subtle but the +NAO and ridging in the western Atlantic near 50/50 makes a big difference. If there was a trough there then that’s a great look. 
 

But ignore the colors and look at the flow. It’s straight out of the south. Blue over us doesn’t = good snow pattern. Think basic wave physics. Any wave approaching from the west will have a southerly flow ahead of it.  If we’re going to have an amplified trough like that we need a mechanism to suppress the southerly flow. Blocking!!!  It’s not there so any approaching wave in that look it very likely to cut and drive the thermal boundary way northwest of us. Add in a lack of any antecedent cold and that was never a good look. I say this with no ill intent just trying to help for future reference, but looking at that and thinking it’s good is user error. 
 

There are ways to snow without blocking but we would need a more progressive less amplified long wave configuration than that (the broad bowl @Bob Chilland @CAPE are always referencing or a trough axis further east and get lucky with a perfect timed late phase and tuck… only way that look there works is either an arctic antecedent airmass then maybe a front end thump or a lucky secondary development but both of those are long shot fluke type things.  
 

That look above is however a good loading pattern to get to a better pattern a few days later  that amplified trough will move northeast and set up the suppression we need for the next wave or two to have a shot.  With luck the wave break can even improve the NAO.  So people were right to look at that as positive in the longer term but wrong to think that wave was ever a real threat.  

 

 

I was merely pointing out that even when MR or LR model ensemble forecasts verify a high degree of accuracy with respect to the general continental-scale height field, there is typically too much uncertainty at that range to make regional weather forecasts. This was in reference to someone suggesting a 5-day old GEFS chart matched tomorrow's height field pretty well... and also references from a week ago suggesting this period could produce a wintry event.

Snapshot anomaly charts should never be used by themselves for synoptic forecasting. IMO they are massively overused and the result of an increase in interest in climate indices and LR forecasting.

[wxdude64]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

Talk about temperature busts, most tv Mets were calling for upper 50s on Christmas, looks a lot cooler on WB 0Z 3K NAM.

Not sure what the forecast vs actuals have been up that way, but NWS has busted high 4-8 degrees most of the week here. 

[Ji]

Talk about temperature busts, most tv Mets were calling for upper 50s on Christmas, looks a lot cooler on WB 0Z 3K NAM.

Nam 3k will probably bust. It did this for the Dec 10 storm and busted bad

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk

[Jrlg1181]

3 hours ago, Paleocene said:

That post where the random guy mentioned inhaling the second hand crystal meth was probably one of the best posts of all time on this board (excepting of couse @Jebman 's finest). Sorry @Weather Will

I dont post often , usually just obs but thank you - I'm honored !!!  I'm glad that I was able to bring a laugh out of some of you guys at the expense of my younger self.... But seriously once that stuff wore off , for the next 12 hours or so my mind was so clear and bright that I felt like I could solve the world's problems maybe cure cancer, build a time machine and looking back now maybe invent a weather model that would be 100% accurate a month in advance...

[yoda]

Pretty impressive that the GFS has been honing in on the Jan 4-6 period for our first "real" winter threat for quite awhile now.  00z GFS continues that tonight

Ends up being a rainer for most... but the threat window is there and that's all we can take for now

[87storms]

Pretty impressive that the GFS has been honing in on the Jan 4-6 period for our first "real" winter threat for quite awhile now.  00z GFS continues that tonight

Side note…I haven’t looked at the stats of the gfs, but it doesn’t tease as often anymore. It hasn’t showed much in the way of blues for 2 years now and it’s turned out to be pretty accurate on that lol. It’s also schooled the nam during the summer on multiple occasions by not showing much precip up this way, so if it’s showing blue (at range, not this far out), it deserves attention.