Brady Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 12 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Hope you recover swiftly , frd. and, yea, plus 1 to cape for airing out the room from Ji’s farts overnight. Farts is putting it mildly 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 6 minutes ago, Brady said: It’s a shame your sub forum is the way it is. It’s like a total different vibe there compared to here and the NE sub forum Yeah they’re saying that models will correct warmer as polar air modifies moving south. That may be true, but the models are already accounting for that and we don’t need it colder than “cold enough” else we risk suppression. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 1 hour ago, CAPE said: 6z GFS is very close to something for the 4th-5th, then drops the hammer sending a TPV lobe south, pushing the thermal boundary to south Georgia lol. Dang…6z teases like 4 times and can’t quite get it together once. 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Dang…6z teases like 4 times and can’t quite get it together once. Thanks Stormy 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 35 minutes ago, frd said: Your in top form @CAPE. Appreciate the updates. Not posting as much because I have suffered medical issues and surgery, but your posts cheer me up every morning. I am really hopeful for snowfall in early Jan. Things looking better and better. Hope you have a full recovery! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 This pretty far out in time for an ens mean to show an obvious gulf moisture feed incoming. Might be be high qpf members skewing (didn't dig deep) but it's real hard not to ponder the 7th and beyond.... 26 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 What year was it that the pattern flipped in early January with an event that kicked off a heater for the rest of the winter? 2015? Kinda feels like we are heading that way (different patterns yadda yadda). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 51 minutes ago, frd said: Your in top form @CAPE. Appreciate the updates. Not posting as much because I have suffered medical issues and surgery, but your posts cheer me up every morning. I am really hopeful for snowfall in early Jan. Things looking better and better. Get well soon, @frd 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 1 minute ago, nj2va said: What year was it that the pattern flipped in early January with an event that kicked off a heater for the rest of the winter? 2015? Kinda feels like we are heading that way (different patterns yadda yadda). Maybe you're thinking 2014. 2015 as all backloaded didn't get going until the arctic front and heavy squall around Valentine's day. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: What year was it that the pattern flipped in early January with an event that kicked off a heater for the rest of the winter? 2015? Kinda feels like we are heading that way (different patterns yadda yadda). 13-14 was kinda wall to wall. Early Dec produced (very good N-W). Late Dec got super warm and freaked everyone out. By first week of Jan it completely flipped and we got a moderate cold storm (Jan 7th maybe?). History after that... I'll never forget the all snow/cold west track... super anomalous. 2015 was an epic disaster until Vday. Pure insanity in SNE. Was hard to watch lol 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brady Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 31 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Yeah they’re saying that models will correct warmer as polar air modifies moving south. That may be true, but the models are already accounting for that and we don’t need it colder than “cold enough” else we risk suppression. The same crew harping about snow cover lacking this winter are the same crew last winter saying all the above normal snow cover in Canada didn’t mean anything in regards to a colder outcome 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Just now, Brady said: The same crew harping about snow cover lacking this winter are the same crew last winter saying all the above norm snow cover in Canada didn’t mean anything. Good recall. They’re trying to have it both ways 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 13-14 was kinda wall to wall. Early Dec produced (very good N-W). Late Dec got super warm and freaked everyone out. By first week of Jan it completely flipped and we got a moderate cold storm (Jan 7th maybe?). History after that... I'll never forget the all snow/cold west track... super anomalous. 2015 was an epic disaster until Vday. Pure insanity in SNE. Was hard to watch lol We had a few small events in 14-15 prior to mid-February, but people here were absolutely losing their minds because SNE was having an absolute parade of KUs and we were smoking cirrus. The 3-4 weeks starting at Valentine’s Day changed our opinion quickly of that winter. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: We had a few small events in 14-15 prior to mid-February, but people here were absolutely losing their minds because SNE was having an absolute parade of KUs and we were smoking cirrus. The 3-4 weeks starting at Valentine’s Day changed our opinion quickly of that winter. One of the problems with the year following a big year is expectations get totally out of whack lol. Boxing day 2010 was an incredibly bitter pill to swallow after the previous winter. I refused to believe it wouldn't work out cuz we were a blizzard town back then hahaha 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Love catching up on the disco after good runs on the grave yard shift. On my second cup of coffee. Just hit the Penjamin and about to workout. It’s lookin promising homies. Merry Christmas! 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 More legitimate signs of the nao going negative on all guidance towards the second week of Jan. This signal is becoming more stable and consistent than the teases we were getting before. This would be right on schedule. Remember typically it’s not “nao goes neg and we instantly get a parade of snows”. While I’m excited for the potential in the Jan 1-6 range, cape covered it well, blocking would offer us an extended window beyond and history suggests we would be very likely to eventually cash in in a big way. 19 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 1 hour ago, stormy said: Yesterday afternoon, the 18z GFS op. made some flawed assumptions IMO that culminated in a major snowstorm for our region around Jan. 6 - 7. IMO, a very erratic track would not survive the test of time and I so stated my opinion. It did not survive the test of time. Period, Stop The period between Dec. 28 - Jan. 10 should be active and produce some snow for most of us. I believe most of us agree or at least hope for this reality. Accurate details are not available at this early date. Early speculation will likely change, but that is ok for those who wish to speculate. I will not criticize those who throw cold water on my ideas. Everyone is entitled to an opinion. Enjoy your life and now I begin a busy day. Next time just ask where the restroom is and to be excused. No need to do that in front of us. 6 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 55 minutes ago, nj2va said: What year was it that the pattern flipped in early January with an event that kicked off a heater for the rest of the winter? 2015? Kinda feels like we are heading that way (different patterns yadda yadda). I believe that was mostly February into early March 2015. I don't recall all that much prior to about mid-Feb, then we got on a heater for about 3-4 weeks straight! And that February was COOOOLD, like -9 or -10 on the month for temps! 48 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 13-14 was kinda wall to wall. Early Dec produced (very good N-W). Late Dec got super warm and freaked everyone out. By first week of Jan it completely flipped and we got a moderate cold storm (Jan 7th maybe?). History after that... I'll never forget the all snow/cold west track... super anomalous. 2015 was an epic disaster until Vday. Pure insanity in SNE. Was hard to watch lol Ahhh, semi 'd by Chill! You're right, now that you mention it I do recall SNE getting hammered by a couple of storms late Jan or early Feb in 2015 and we got fooked. Then yeah, Feb. 14 was that Arctic blast and intense snow squalls for an hour or so, got 2" where I am! I still consider that to be the best or one of the best "mini" events I've experienced here! And Bob, I still somehow recall you mentioning that you were out grilling during that snow burst, taking it all in!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 ok sorry didn’t post right for some reason lemme try again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Just for nostalgia, posted the radar evolution loop from the Blizzard of 2016. Hope we can score like that again 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 46 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: One of the problems with the year following a big year is expectations get totally out of whack lol. The Storm Which Shall Not Be Named 2010 was an incredibly bitter pill to swallow after the previous winter. I refused to believe it wouldn't work out cuz we were a blizzard town back then hahaha FYP, translated into Harry Potter-ese for ya! We're not supposed to actually say the name of that...event! But you're right, coming off that previous winter, and with Dec. 2010 being cold, I think a lot of expectations in here were off-kilter and unrealistic. Now, it's the opposite vibe. Several meh to lousy winters and the mood is total defeat, and if a butterfly farts and causes one cycle of an ops model to look slightly less good, it's a freak-out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Next time just ask where the restroom is and to be excused. No need to do that in front of us. Had him on ignore so I had to manually show his post to see what the context was. Looks like I missed the whole “party” lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 I see 3 possibilities between Jan 1 and Jan 8. The first is a long shot because it’s suppressed and OTS at this moment, but still time for it to change. Recent gfs run trended closer to the coast actually. If we could get better spacing vs the storm before it, it might actually turn into something. Second is Jan 3-4, a weak slider (you can see it on the mslp anomaly panel on the ensembles). Third is Jan 6-8, a more sig wave that Bob Chill was talking about wrt gulf moisture feed. It’s also on the mslp anomaly panel. Those are the 3 to watch. 23 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 1 hour ago, Conway7305 said: Just for nostalgia, posted the radar evolution loop from the Blizzard of 2016. Hope we can score like that again Somewhere around the 1:04 mark, I could feel JI saying I can see the back edge already. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 3 hours ago, frd said: Your in top form @CAPE. Appreciate the updates. Not posting as much because I have suffered medical issues and surgery, but your posts cheer me up every morning. I am really hopeful for snowfall in early Jan. Things looking better and better. Get better dude 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Listen, hold off on the storm talk until I return from Mexico on the 2nd. If you root for a storm and it comes on the 1st, there’s going to be mysterious “server down” messages on the board from like 12/30-1/1. I’m at a bar at DFW waiting on my next flight and Cape’s posts have mitigated the anger that i paid $37 for a shrimp po boy and a beer. I don’t need this stress worrying about 1/1. Where is Chuck and his fever dream posts when you need them? 4 29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 7 minutes ago, WSWL said: 12z GGEM was close for January 1 3 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Just now, stormtracker said: Breaking him out now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 22 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Listen, hold off on the storm talk until I return from Mexico on the 2nd. If you root for a storm and it comes on the 1st, there’s going to be mysterious “server down” messages on the board from like 12/30-1/1. I’m at a bar at DFW waiting on my next flight and Cape’s posts have mitigated the anger that i paid $37 for a shrimp po boy and a beer. I don’t need this stress worrying about 1/1. Where is Chuck and his fever dream posts when you need them? I’m also not here till the 2nd so I’ll slip you an extra 5 bucks if that mysteriously happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 12 minutes ago, WSWL said: 12z GGEM was close for January 1 CMC is following gfs trend for Jan 1… 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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