Dec/Jan Medium/Long Range Disco

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

man, that MSLP is classic stuff

It has potential 

We love seeing that potential in the LR lol.

[CAPE]

Here we go..

[brooklynwx99]

9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It has potential 

We love seeing that potential in the LR lol.

this is near perfect. can’t believe it

gotta love that dipole signature in the Atlantic. would make the -NAO way more legit

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is near perfect. can’t believe it

gotta love that dipole signature in the Atlantic. would make the -NAO way more legit

Nice look for sure. The reality is this will require a good bit of timing. This is not an established block with a healthy wave tracking underneath. If that were the case we may be looking at something quite significant. That type of outcome seems more likely to occur later in Jan into Feb.

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Nice look for sure. The reality is this will require a good bit of timing. This is not an established block with a healthy wave tracking underneath. If that were the case we may be looking at something quite significant. That type of outcome seems more likely to occur later in Jan into Feb.

it isn’t, but if we get that -NAO it changes things. not sure if that’s real yet… would like to see more consistency there

unfortunately, i don’t think we’ll see any consistency there

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it isn’t, but if we get that -NAO it changes things. not sure if that’s real yet… would like to see more consistency there

unfortunately, i don’t think we’ll see any consistency there

You have a lot more wiggle room up there.  For us it’s still precarious.  We almost need you to fail or get fringed for us to score.  But I like our chances right now.  

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it isn’t, but if we get that -NAO it changes things. not sure if that’s real yet… would like to see more consistency there

unfortunately, i don’t think we’ll see any consistency there

We just can't know yet, but realistically this seems conducive for a moderate event given colder air to work with and some favorable wave timing. Not the classic Nino 'come to papa' type deal with an established NA block though. Not yet.

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

We just can't know yet, but realistically this seems conducive for a moderate event given colder air to work with and some favorable wave timing. Not the classic Nino 'come to papa' type deal with an established NA block though. Not yet.

yeah any kind of true pig -NAO block likely waits until late month into Feb. odds increase if a SSW occurs (which is also looking more likely)

[clskinsfan]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah any kind of true pig -NAO block likely waits until late month into Feb. odds increase if a SSW occurs (which is also looking more likely)

We dont necessarily want a beast NAO though. The Carolina guys do. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah any kind of true pig -NAO block likely waits until late month into Feb. odds increase if a SSW occurs (which is also looking more likely)

Looks toasty, quite perturbed and stretched. As advertised this configuration would seem to favor development of a more sustained -NAO mid month and beyond.

[psuhoffman]

This would suck 

 

……if you’re Webb 

[frd]

22 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Looks toasty, quite perturbed and stretched. As advertised this configuration would seem to favor development of a more sustained -NAO mid month and beyond

 

[psuhoffman]

If the nao tanks the first week of January all bets are off. I want to see another couple days of movement in this direction. I wasn’t expecting that until later. But if true the -pna wouldn’t matter. 

[Jrlg1181]

Bit off topic, but speaking of hallucinations and the weather... Late in the 90s a bunch of us 20 yr olds went to a skynyrd concert in northern Va in different cars.. Me and a friend riding with me forgot where I parked 'large parking lot and had never been there before' ... It started pouring rain , some random dudes gave us a lift to find my car.. They started smoking PCP even though we were total strangers... I opened the window to avoid the 2nd hand smoke - it didn't work... The ride back down 29 to Cville was a disaster... I was seeing tornados in the lightning,  trees were tractors and somewhere near culpeper Abe Lincoln was standing on the side of the road , he jumped on my hood he flew through my car , I looked at him and he looked at me and flew out the back... Got to northern Charlottesville and it wore off like I woke up from a dream... How I drove down 29 I'll never know, but it scared the hell out of me after I "woke" up..... 

[frd]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

if you’re Webb 

At least he is bullish on Feb, as you are, and believes we have very significant - NAO later in Jan and Feb. 

[frd]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

If the nao tanks the first week of January all bets are off. I want to see another couple days of movement in this direction. I wasn’t expecting that until later. But if true the -pna wouldn’t matter. 

 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

If the nao tanks the first week of January all bets are off. I want to see another couple days of movement in this direction. I wasn’t expecting that until later. But if true the -pna wouldn’t matter. 

if we get a -NAO, i would honestly prefer a slight -PNA. keeps the pattern active and STJ open

[Jebman]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is near perfect. can’t believe it

gotta love that dipole signature in the Atlantic. would make the -NAO way more legit

It kind of looks like its smilin at the Mid Atlantic lol, sayin you guys are gonna get totally demolished by snow this winter haha have fun diggin out lmao

[Daniel Boone]

4 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Honestly I would like to see the NAO + (as a dominant pattern). I think that will correlate with a -epo/+pna. Something in the global pattern is ticking this way. Otherwise just give me consistency in the models at this point: an Aleutian low, and Natural Gas not trading as low as $2.50 could help.  

A Feb. 2015 setup I could go along with that statement but, I don't see it here. 

[Scraff]

1 hour ago, Jrlg1181 said:

Bit off topic, but speaking of hallucinations and the weather... Late in the 90s a bunch of us 20 yr olds went to a skynyrd concert in northern Va in different cars.. Me and a friend riding with me forgot where I parked 'large parking lot and had never been there before' ... It started pouring rain , some random dudes gave us a lift to find my car.. They started smoking PCP even though we were total strangers... I opened the window to avoid the 2nd hand smoke - it didn't work... The ride back down 29 to Cville was a disaster... I was seeing tornados in the lightning,  trees were tractors and somewhere near culpeper Abe Lincoln was standing on the side of the road , he jumped on my hood he flew through my car , I looked at him and he looked at me and flew out the back... Got to northern Charlottesville and it wore off like I woke up from a dream... How I drove down 29 I'll never know, but it scared the hell out of me after I "woke" up..... 

I am literally pouring tears in laughter…

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

This would suck 

 

……if you’re Webb 

 

[SnowLover22]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

This would suck 

 

……if you’re Webb 

You know…. sometimes I forget you don’t have a degree in this stuff, you really know your shit. My degreed PhD Research Advisor could learn a thing or two about long range forecasting(teleconnections in particular) and frankly, so can I. I am much better at short range forecasting, looking at different weather maps(upper level charts, surface analysis maps), and forecast what will happen in 1-3 days. Love using bufkit and MOS which are obviously much better for short range forecasting.
 

 

[MillvilleWx]

4 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

You know…. sometimes I forget you don’t have a degree in this stuff, you really know your shit. My degreed PhD Research Advisor could learn a thing or two about long range forecasting and frankly so can I. I am much better at short range forecasting, looking at different weather maps(upper level charts, surface analysis maps), and forecast what will happen in 1-3 days. Love using bufkit and MOS but can much better for short range forecasting.
 

 

I am also much better at short range forecasting and LR stuff to me is just nails on a chalkboard. I enjoy all weather, but anything beyond 96 hrs I start to lose my sanity. My work now is 72 hrs and in and boy do I love it. I like making the big decisions. 
 

As for that map PSU showed…hot damn!! 

[clskinsfan]

5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Heavy cloud thickness, snow days, albeit flurries

[jayyy]

540 line is in SNE

Those are 500mb heights.


.

[Eskimo Joe]

24 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Those are 500mb heights.

I misinterpreted a map a few pages ago, asked a legit question, and was trolled for it. It's become a joke at my expense now.

[pazzo83]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

I misinterpreted a map a few pages ago, asked a legit question, and was trolled for it. It's become a joke at my expense now.

the irony is there was widespread lack of basic English understanding today wrt Chuck's post about a "transition" - but the joke is on you for mis-interpreting a map.

[midatlanticweather]

I am confused by Pivotal's site in the range after Christmas - Looks interesting... pretty much wet.. just strange

 

[jayyy]

Hot DAMN the GEFS looked good earlier this evening. You almost have to double and triple take looking at these 500mb / H5 outputs out of utter disbelief that a) they look as good as they do and b. they’re actually improving incrementally as time goes on.

Still some time for things to change of course, but it’s definitely encouraging that we’re only about 7 days away from the start of the pattern change.

Let’s keep it going!

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, SnowLover22 said:

You know…. sometimes I forget you don’t have a degree in this stuff, you really know your shit. My degreed PhD Research Advisor could learn a thing or two about long range forecasting(teleconnections in particular) and frankly, so can I. I am much better at short range forecasting, looking at different weather maps(upper level charts, surface analysis maps), and forecast what will happen in 1-3 days. Love using bufkit and MOS which are obviously much better for short range forecasting.
 

 

 

53 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I am also much better at short range forecasting and LR stuff to me is just nails on a chalkboard. I enjoy all weather, but anything beyond 96 hrs I start to lose my sanity. My work now is 72 hrs and in and boy do I love it. I like making the big decisions. 
 

As for that map PSU showed…hot damn!! 

Thank you. I also prefer short range. Nothing more exciting than looking at VVs, moisture convergence, fgen and trying to nail meso banding as a snowstorm is bearing down on us. Where’s that death band gonna set up. NE MD destroyed. 

But alas the last 7 years I’ve had way more practice looking at day 15 ensemble means wanting to gouge my eyes out as I wait for the next hint at any hope. Wrt long range, for me it’s 99% pouring over past data. What happened in every past snowy pattern. What was the loading pattern weeks ahead. How did this roll forward in the past. I just waste way more time than most looking at and memorizing historical weather data.  
 

Frankly it comes in handy with short range too. There are surprises good and bad but I’ve found more often than not things trend towards what history says should happen given the setup.