Dec/Jan Medium/Long Range Disco

[WinterWxLuvr]

  On 12/21/2023 at 5:40 PM, CAPE said:

12z GEFS is a bit more robust with the trailing shortwave dropping south behind the 27th rain event. A little snow across the region on the mean verbatim.

 

Expand  

That’s the one. Nothing major of course but maybe could serve as an appetizer to a bigger one that you mentioned.

[brooklynwx99]

here's our first real crack at something IMO. vort sneaks under the EPO ridge with troughing in SE Canada. split flow FTW

[CAPE]

  On 12/21/2023 at 5:41 PM, WinterWxLuvr said:

That’s the one. Nothing major of course but maybe could serve as an appetizer to a bigger one that you mentioned.

Expand  

That has been a feature on op guidance but not much in the way of surface reflection. A bit better on the 12z op run today, so not surprising the 12z GEFS has a stronger signal for that time. Something to keep an eye on as this looks to usher in the initial push of colder air. 

[brooklynwx99]

also, notice that the source region has gone from the Pacific to northern Canada, AK, and the Arctic circle. follow the streamlines

[rehjr]

  On 12/21/2023 at 5:51 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

also, notice that the source region has gone from the Pacific to northern Canada, AK, and the Arctic circle. follow the streamlines

Expand  

Impossible according to the NYC crowd. It’s warmth and no snow if you believe them. 

[Kmlwx]

I usually lurk in the long range threads - and what I am about to say is purely "gut feeling-esque" but this upcoming period while it may not be the "peak climo" or "best odds" - has the feeling of a period of time that might define the remainder of winter. In other words, if we can find a way to make snow work with a less than perfect pattern a time or two in the next 2+ weeks, it feels like something bigger might come "easier" (term used loosely). Similar to how Bob and others say some winter it just "wants to snow" 

If we get skunked through like January 10th, it may still be game on for later in the month and into Feb, but it'll have a whole different feel if we can back into or have a few events sneak in before primetime. 

[osfan24]

  On 12/21/2023 at 6:21 PM, Kmlwx said:

I usually lurk in the long range threads - and what I am about to say is purely "gut feeling-esque" but this upcoming period while it may not be the "peak climo" or "best odds" - has the feeling of a period of time that might define the remainder of winter. In other words, if we can find a way to make snow work with a less than perfect pattern a time or two in the next 2+ weeks, it feels like something bigger might come "easier" (term used loosely). Similar to how Bob and others say some winter it just "wants to snow" 

If we get skunked through like January 10th, it may still be game on for later in the month and into Feb, but it'll have a whole different feel if we can back into or have a few events sneak in before primetime. 

Expand  

No doubt. When PSU broke down how things might proceed from here, I cringed a bit. I know he still said late January-February could be the real deal, but potentially waiting until then after all the talk of virtual wall-to-wall -NAO and -AO and after so many seasons of nothingness and can-kicking.........whew, that would test us.

[brooklynwx99]

just a beautiful look here. split flow, -NAO/-EPO/-AO, and an active STJ

that's also "real" blocking too. notice how there's a train of storms over the Atlantic that actually block the flow rather than a big ridge that pokes into Greenland

[WEATHER53]

  On 12/21/2023 at 6:21 PM, Kmlwx said:

I usually lurk in the long range threads - and what I am about to say is purely "gut feeling-esque" but this upcoming period while it may not be the "peak climo" or "best odds" - has the feeling of a period of time that might define the remainder of winter. In other words, if we can find a way to make snow work with a less than perfect pattern a time or two in the next 2+ weeks, it feels like something bigger might come "easier" (term used loosely). Similar to how Bob and others say some winter it just "wants to snow" 

If we get skunked through like January 10th, it may still be game on for later in the month and into Feb, but it'll have a whole different feel if we can back into or have a few events sneak in before primetime. 

Expand  

Yes.  Part of forecasting and model “guidance” is the timing. Cold and snow if predicted for 12/15, then 12/30, then 1/15 and such finally arrives 1/25 is a Busted outlook. Eventual outcome has some limited merit but timing is even more valuable. Nobody was excited about Dec anyway but by end of the month we need to see the pattern change to what the analogs showed or we are in trouble with what previous outcomes in Ninos have provided for us. .

 

 

[brooklynwx99]

i know that this is like way out there, even on an ENS mean, but seeing 500mb patterns like this warms my heart

[Kevin Reilly]

  On 12/21/2023 at 6:21 PM, Kmlwx said:

I usually lurk in the long range threads - and what I am about to say is purely "gut feeling-esque" but this upcoming period while it may not be the "peak climo" or "best odds" - has the feeling of a period of time that might define the remainder of winter. In other words, if we can find a way to make snow work with a less than perfect pattern a time or two in the next 2+ weeks, it feels like something bigger might come "easier" (term used loosely). Similar to how Bob and others say some winter it just "wants to snow" 

If we get skunked through like January 10th, it may still be game on for later in the month and into Feb, but it'll have a whole different feel if we can back into or have a few events sneak in before primetime. 

Expand  

Well said my feelings exactly too!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

We have a good pattern setting up for Dec 29-Jan 2, then it looks like the Aleutian island ridge comes on strong hr384 on 12z GEFS. By the end of the run, the pattern is transitioning toward possibly a SE ridge. 

[Shad]

best setup we have seen in many years but as said before thats not saying much.  Jan 4-6 time frame really starting to look interesting......

[rehjr]

  On 12/21/2023 at 6:49 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

We have a good pattern setting up for Dec 29-Jan 2, then it looks like the Aleutian island ridge comes on strong hr384 on 12z GEFS. By the end of the run, the pattern is transitioning toward possibly a SE ridge. 

Expand  

Did they relocate the southeast USA? 

[WinterWxLuvr]

  On 12/21/2023 at 6:49 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

We have a good pattern setting up for Dec 29-Jan 2, then it looks like the Aleutian island ridge comes on strong hr384 on 12z GEFS. By the end of the run, the pattern is transitioning toward possibly a SE ridge. 

Expand  

Nothing ever positive. People like that

[WxUSAF]

Haven’t seen EPS yet, but otherwise an encouraging 12z suite to my eye. 3 big globals all show some light snow/snow showers in the area late next week as cold air arrives and are setting up well beyond D10. GEFS and GEPS show the Jan 4-6 period is very compelling. GEFS also again around Jan 1-2. 

[brooklynwx99]

  On 12/21/2023 at 7:18 PM, WxUSAF said:

Haven’t seen EPS yet, but otherwise an encouraging 12z suite to my eye. 3 big globals all show some light snow/snow showers in the area late next week as cold air arrives and are setting up well beyond D10. GEFS and GEPS show the Jan 4-6 period is very compelling. GEFS also again around Jan 1-2. 

Expand  

[clskinsfan]

  On 12/21/2023 at 7:12 PM, WinterWxLuvr said:

Nothing ever positive. People like that

Expand  

I dont know wtf he is talking about. There is no SE ridge anywhere on the GEFS.

[WxUSAF]

  On 12/21/2023 at 7:32 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

Expand  

Can’t be. I’ve heard in very good authority that cold is getting cankicked and it’s going to stay warm for awhile. #natgas

[rehjr]

  On 12/21/2023 at 7:35 PM, clskinsfan said:

I dont know wtf he is talking about. There is no SE ridge anywhere on the GEFS.

Expand  

Apparently they moved Florida. 

[Ji]

EPS has blue in the snowfall map finally 

[stormy]

The 12z deterministic GFS gives warning criteria snow to the 81 corridor in the Jan. 4 - 6 time-frame. This of course will all change but I see this as a determination of pattern.

The 21 members of the GEFS give basic agreement to the pattern, but as earlier this week and last, it disagrees with its own parameters if looking at literal precip. type.  That is a repetitive flaw with this ensemble.

The 12z EPS is superior to the GEFS in this regard.

[Miss Pixee]

  On 12/20/2023 at 1:20 AM, Ji said:

Im actually really tired of talking pattern change. We do need a threat asap to show up. Those maps are pretty but we need some roi like right now

Expand  

But...whom are you going to complain to? 

[Steve25]

  On 12/21/2023 at 6:49 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

We have a good pattern setting up for Dec 29-Jan 2, then it looks like the Aleutian island ridge comes on strong hr384 on 12z GEFS. By the end of the run, the pattern is transitioning toward possibly a SE ridge. 

Expand  

Are you okay?

[stormtracker]

  On 12/21/2023 at 6:49 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

We have a good pattern setting up for Dec 29-Jan 2, then it looks like the Aleutian island ridge comes on strong hr384 on 12z GEFS. By the end of the run, the pattern is transitioning toward possibly a SE ridge. 

Expand  

Edibles? Vape? Flower? You smoking that good shit. Hook a brotha up?

[vegan_edible]

  On 12/21/2023 at 8:27 PM, stormtracker said:

Edibles? Vape? Flower? You smoking that good shit. Hook a brotha up?

Expand  

come to the nyc forum friend. i can help

[dallen7908]

  On 12/21/2023 at 7:57 PM, Ji said:

EPS has blue in the snowfall map finally 

Expand  

Yes, the 15-day mean in College Park is over an inch (1.1") for this first time this winter.  We're entering a period when the modeled large-scale pattern is favorable and the climatology is less unfavorable.   Hopefully, we get a few inches before we hear the word maritime continent again. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

  On 12/21/2023 at 8:27 PM, stormtracker said:

Edibles? Vape? Flower? You smoking that good shit. Hook a brotha up?

Expand  

You ever done mushrooms?

[CAPE]

  On 12/21/2023 at 8:27 PM, stormtracker said:

Edibles? Vape? Flower? You smoking that good shit. Hook a brotha up?

Expand  

Must be something hardcore to get the SE ridge hallucinations.

[Ralph Wiggum]

  On 12/21/2023 at 6:42 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

i know that this is like way out there, even on an ENS mean, but seeing 500mb patterns like this warms my heart

Expand  

Shit, I dunno about warming my heart but that look really warms my loins!!