Dec/Jan Medium/Long Range Disco

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

I agree but  i think some  of  us want to see the snow and  cold progressing along as well. Hopefully  it will

What does the 1200hr GFS show tho?

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

they seem to change their tune daily....i think most of it is to troll winter fans

So, the Ji models

[Stormchaserchuck1]

21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

1. Does that roll into an eastern ridge though in a Nino with a weak SPV and amplified STJ?

The El Nino does help +PNA chances. I am interested to see how it plays out though, because we have had a greater-than-ENSO -PNA happening for the past several Winter's. If we post an Aleutian trough this Jan-Feb it will overall look like a short range high ENSO correlation. 

Quote

So long as the pacific ridge extends over the top onto western Canada the energy that crashes into the west should track east not get stuck and amplify out west. 

Yeah, a -epo doesn't hurt. I would love to see us build ridging in NW Canada and AK, but it has thus far been only temporary

Quote

weak SPV

Since 2019, -NAO's have correlated with +epo/-pna and visa-versa at >0.40, since 2013 the correlation is 0.30. It will be interesting to see if this correlation holds and the PNA goes negative this Winter when the NAO goes negative. 

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

End of the GEFS run looks interesting. See it?

 

A bit different timing, but the potential is there on the EPS as well. Favorable h5 looks in a Nino.. just a matter of time. Hard not to be a little excited for the possibilities the first week of Jan. Unless ofc you are an agenda driven deb.

[Shaulov4]

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

A bit different timing, but the potential is there on the EPS as well. Favorable h5 looks in a Nino.. just a matter of time. Hard not to be a little excited for the possibilities the first week of Jan. Unless ofc you are an agenda driven deb.

Yes, the 3-6th Time Frame really does seem like our first real potential. It almost like everything settles and is ready to go.

[CAPE]

Notice the tendency for low pressure off the Canadian Maritimes, and high pressure over the Great lakes. And ofc the southern stream loaded with shortwaves. These elements don't 'happen' by accident- this combo is generally what is favored in a Nino, and increases snow chances in the MA.

[stormy]

9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

A bit different timing, but the potential is there on the EPS as well. Favorable h5 looks in a Nino.. just a matter of time. Hard not to be a little excited for the possibilities the first week of Jan. Unless ofc you are an agenda driven deb.

I am on record as liking the first 5 days of January, for unsettled wintry conditions across the MA.  Cold air will be settling south from HB.  The STJ should be amplifying.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Oy Gevalt!  I don't check in here for a couple of days (was out of town), and sure as shit, this board turns to shit!  We should have ensemble members predict the mood swings of this board, it's so highly predictable!  Thanks to those with more level heads and less overt emotions for keeping some reality in here.

[psuhoffman]

56 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The El Nino does help +PNA chances. I am interested to see how it plays out though, because we have had a greater-than-ENSO -PNA happening for the past several Winter's. If we post an Aleutian trough this Jan-Feb it will overall look like a short range high ENSO correlation. 

Yeah, a -epo doesn't hurt. I would love to see us build ridging in NW Canada and AK, but it has thus far been only temporary

Since 2019, -NAO's have correlated with +epo/-pna and visa-versa at >0.40, since 2013 the correlation is 0.30. It will be interesting to see if this correlation holds and the PNA goes negative this Winter when the NAO goes negative. 

Euro weeklies agree with my hunch. For about a week we get a central pec ridge coinciding with MC forcing. But by the next week the pac pattern is resuming a more Nino look. 

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Euro weeklies agree with my hunch. For about a week we get a central pec ridge coinciding with MC forcing. But by the next week the pac pattern is resuming a more Nino look. 

even that first look is serviceable since the Atlantic looks nice. one would even argue that you'd want a slight -PNA with a -NAO

[nj2va]

42 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Notice the tendency for low pressure off the Canadian Maritimes, and high pressure over the Great lakes. And ofc the southern stream loaded with shortwaves. These elements don't 'happen' by accident- this combo is generally what is favored in a Nino, and increases snow chances in the MA.

The low pressure off the maritimes is so clutch for the MA - helps prevent the High pressures over Canada/Lakes from flying through where we’re completely banking on luck/timing.  We have more ‘wiggle’ room in a 500 setup like that esp with the number of southern stream waves moving through.  

I know I’m a weenie but hard not to think we have an AN chance of snow the first week of January.

[SnowenOutThere]

18 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

even that first look is serviceable since the Atlantic looks nice. one would even argue that you'd want a slight -PNA with a -NAO

That would be good for some decent front end thump then rain/dry slot storms right? 

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

That would be good for some decent front end thump then rain/dry slot storms right? 

could be, yes. counts all the same

[nj2va]

4 hours ago, CAPE said:

End of the GEFS run looks interesting. See it?

 

18z OP in la la land has a big storm in this time period with a sprawling High Pressure dropping in from Canada.  Not worth parsing details that far out but continues to show the potential in the window even if the OP didn’t work out for us on this run.  There’s a lot to like on the 500 map even though the vort went negative too soon.

This could be our first discreet threat window to start tracking.  

[jayyy]

When Bob Chill adds to the disco you all better look out! 

The infamous bob chill train pattern. Cold pressing up top with compressed heights with a train of shortwaves riding to our south. Little room for mid levels to get torched and the best chance of seeing area wide snow without a major screw zone

[jayyy]

I think we are seeing a bit of can kicking again

Stop looking at long range snowfall means. Jesus.

[CAPE]

36 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

even that first look is serviceable since the Atlantic looks nice. one would even argue that you'd want a slight -PNA with a -NAO

A -PNA/-NAO combo is pretty common in some of our snowiest periods historically during a Nino.

[jayyy]

it feels like yesterday and today--we keep adding more and more spices and hot sauces to the meal and it still taste like shat.....
i need to see blue on my surface map now....even 15 days out

Like this?? Or do you need to see it on every single OP run at the 15 day range just to appease your worried mind? Come on Ji. You’ve come so far. Reel it back in.

[Eskimo Joe]

59 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

even that first look is serviceable since the Atlantic looks nice. one would even argue that you'd want a slight -PNA with a -NAO

What is the advantage to a slightly -PNA with a -NAO?

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

What is the advantage to a slightly -PNA with a -NAO?

It can work if a wave pushes off eastward towards us from a W trough that undercuts the -epo/-nao

[CAPE]

15 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

What is the advantage to a slightly -PNA with a -NAO?

A -PNA means something entirely different in a Nina vs a Nino. With the prominent/extended equatorward shift in the Pac jet during a Nino, -PNA periods are inevitable, and not nearly the death knell they can often be during a Nina.

[Eskimo Joe]

31 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

It can work if a wave pushes off eastward towards us from a W trough that undercuts the -epo/-nao

Awesome. Thanks for the explanation. My wheelhouse is mesoscale meteorology (hence the mesonet). Trying to learn the long range stuff.

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, jayyy said:

Like this?? Or do you need to see it on every single OP run at the 15 day range just to appease your worried mind? Come on Ji. You’ve come so far. Reel it back in.

In the defense of all those obsessed with op run digital blue, I can remember a time or two in recent years when the Ensembles were touting a good look which either never materialized or else did so in a much degraded fashion.  One of the first indications of the upcoming disappointment was the stubborn refusal of the ops to show any consistent blues; instead showing cutter after cutter after cutter.  

[psuhoffman]

22 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Awesome. Thanks for the explanation. My wheelhouse is mesoscale meteorology (hence the mesonet). Trying to learn the long range stuff.

Another piece to the equation is that during a Nino we typically get a split flow with a calmer NS. Systems crashing into the west are somewhat cut off from the NS so the trough there isn’t as hostile to the downstream flow as the phase full latitude trough you tend to get in a Nina where the dominant NS dives into the west. In a Nino more commonly it’s somewhat cutoff systems that slide east under the NS often with a ridge in the epo-nao domain above the trough.  

[TSSN+]

11 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

In the defense of all those obsessed with op run digital blue, I can remember a time or two in recent years when the Ensembles were touting a good look which either never materialized or else did so in a much degraded fashion.  One of the first indications of the upcoming disappointment was the stubborn refusal of the ops to show any consistent blues; instead showing cutter after cutter after cutter.  

Cut my low into Chicago, this is my last resort! 
 

Suffering, no snow, can’t buy a flake if I get my Nino steaming. 

[Ji]

Gonna be a long winter

Or a short one

https://x.com/mpalmerwx/status/1737629907012723080?s=46&t=C005pd5HNg3Y-KhVU7n3VA

[Ji]

In the defense of all those obsessed with op run digital blue, I can remember a time or two in recent years when the Ensembles were touting a good look which either never materialized or else did so in a much degraded fashion.  One of the first indications of the upcoming disappointment was the stubborn refusal of the ops to show any consistent blues; instead showing cutter after cutter after cutter.  

Yes we need blue to show up on maps if this pattern change stuff is real. It’s really the most important thing

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, Ji said:

Yes we need blue to show up on maps if this pattern change stuff is real. It’s really the most important thing

The 12z Euro control has a low near VA beach the night of January 3rd.

[Ji]

The 12z Euro control has a low near VA beach the night of January 3rd.

I think Tony pann is behind the euro control. I need real models to show fake snow

[Ji]

It’s like a baseball player who has great advanced stats…but it hitting .219