Eskimo Joe Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 Anyone with paid access have eyes on the EPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Anyone with paid access have eyes on the EPS? looks good as always 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: looks good as always I'm not trying to be a deb here, can you explain to me why the 540 line is so far north during what should be the coldest time of the year in North America? That doesn't seem like a great setup for snow down here. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: looks good as always the euro snowfall matrix looks horrific att lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 8 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Isn't the CMC the #2 model after the euro as far as verification scores? I mean they are all useless at 240 hrs, but doesn't seem like there's any reason to discount the CMC vs the GFS. I dont know. But I'd trust CMC - as in Christian McCaffrey- for a weather simulation over the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 I think we are seeing a bit of can kicking again 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 1 minute ago, Ji said: I think we are seeing a bit of can kicking again what? because the snowfall mean doesn't look great? the pattern progression is moving along as expected 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I'm not trying to be a deb here, can you explain to me why the 540 line is so far north during what should be the coldest time of the year in North America? That doesn't seem like a great setup for snow down here. those are heights, not thicknesses 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: what? because the snowfall mean doesn't look great? the pattern progression is moving along as expected I agree but i think some of us want to see the snow and cold progressing along as well. Hopefully it will 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: what? because the snowfall mean doesn't look great? the pattern progression is moving along as expected https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1737556825342349697/photo/1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 Just now, ldub23 said: I agree but i think some of us want to see the snow and cold progressing along as well. Hopefully it will its time to see blue on the maps...not just from the 500mb maps lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ji said: https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1737556825342349697/photo/1 those aren't of much use... they're 5 day means that start on the 27th, which includes the torch ahead of the cutter. that warm surge has trended stronger the overall 500mb pattern change is still moving forward in time. also, you need the 500mb change before any snow can result. don't wanna put the cart before the horse 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 14 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Oh no! An Aleutian ridge The LR pattern is "ok", the heights are kind of low despite being somewhat favorable in the index areas. We have not, since the El Nino developed, seen a long sustained +PNA, so let's see what happens. I'm a little worried about the roll forward Dec +EPO-Upper Midwest warm look. If the pattern changes and blocking develops up north great, but the Aleutian low looks favorable for 4-5 days then it phases out a bit on the current models. The 'Aleutian' low is still there-it is just shifted further NW in the LR. With the PAC jet forecast to retract, the exit region of the jet core is shifted westward, which influences the location of the lower(higher) h5 heights and surface pressure. The forecast PAC low position (below) reinforces the EPO ridge. When the Jet extends again the exit region of the jet core will be closer to the US west coast, favoring a PAC low positioned eastward over the Aleutians or closer to the GoA, and +PNA chances will increase. There are other factors ofc, but the NPAC jet is ever present and a major driver that influences the strength/position of features at 500 mb. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 4 minutes ago, Ji said: https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1737556825342349697/photo/1 Bam cherry picked that map. The GEFS is colder overall at 850s through the end of the run. Click through on TT and you'll see. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 Just now, Chris78 said: Bam cherry picked that map. The GEFS is colder overall at 850s through the end of the run. Click through on TT and you'll see. yea they are warmongers...more than Eric Webb....i guess i was hoping to see that snowfall chart light up a bit more today with 2 straight days of good runs within 15 days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: those are heights, not thicknesses Thank you. 2 minutes ago, Ji said: yea they are warmongers...more than Eric Webb....i guess i was hoping to see that snowfall chart light up a bit more today with 2 straight days of good runs within 15 days They were honking about low natural gas futures back in autumn and calling for a wall-to-wall torch this winter. I wonder if they're worried about having egg on their face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 You guys basically did the equivalent of blowing up a starbucks toilet with a line outside waiting to use it. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 16 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: those aren't of much use... they're 5 day means that start on the 27th, which includes the torch ahead of the cutter. that warm surge has trended stronger the overall 500mb pattern change is still moving forward in time. also, you need the 500mb change before any snow can result. don't wanna put the cart before the horse I feel shocked, Cotton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Thank you. They were honking about low natural gas futures back in autumn and calling for a wall-to-wall torch this winter. I wonder if they're worried about having egg on their face. they seem to change their tune daily....i think most of it is to troll winter fans 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 7 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Bam cherry picked that map. The GEFS is colder overall at 850s through the end of the run. Click through on TT and you'll see. They have gone cold and snowy in the East the last three years and have done poorly. This year the forecast from BAMM WX is a warmer than usual winter, and below normal snowfall. They believed in the extreme - EPO forecasts from a couple years back and that did not work out. Have to see how the season ends and whether they will be correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 7 hours ago, Ji said: im only here with PSU for HECS. after all these years..i dont think even MECS would do it Do we want to go for a BECS? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 BAM is terrible at seasonal forecasting. I’d rather post 12 year CPC maps than their crap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 it feels like yesterday and today--we keep adding more and more spices and hot sauces to the meal and it still taste like shat..... i need to see blue on my surface map now....even 15 days out 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 Stongest signal yet for a major SSWE. We all know we do not require one to have meaningful snow events, however, concerns of a very cold and very strong PV are much diminshed currently. What this may help is, raising the odds of significant winter weather in ealy to mid Feb matching up with previous MECS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 21 minutes ago, Ji said: they seem to change their tune daily....i think most of it is to troll winter fans Cover all bases Claim verification no matter outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 SSWE in Jan. has historical analogs as support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 7 minutes ago, frd said: SSWE in Jan. has historical analogs as support. a SSW could give us a rockin Feb if it verified 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: a SSW could give us a rockin Feb if it verified did we have one in Feb 2010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2023 Author Share Posted December 20, 2023 7 minutes ago, Ji said: did we have one in Feb 2010? Nope, pretty vanilla 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Oh no! An Aleutian ridge The LR pattern is "ok", the heights are kind of low despite being somewhat favorable in the index areas. We have not, since the El Nino developed, seen a long sustained +PNA, so let's see what happens. I'm a little worried about the roll forward Dec +EPO-Upper Midwest warm look. If the pattern changes and blocking develops up north great, but the Aleutian low looks favorable for 4 days then it phases out a bit on the current models. The roll forward is a -PNA look, so this is the make or break time.. all global models showed a cold January, and this is the time it should happen if it's going to happen (LR ensembles are at Jan 4-5+) 1. Does that roll into an eastern ridge though in a Nino with a weak SPV and amplified STJ? That driver has different downstream impacts based on other factors. So long as the pacific ridge extends over the top onto western Canada the energy that crashes into the west should track east not get stuck and amplify out west. 2. that’s likely temporary as the mjo progresses across the MC. So long as it’s only a week or so with cold established ahead of it we can survive and even snow during the period with luck. It’s very possible we do get a temporary period mid January with a bit too much pna trough but when the pattern reloads and the the mjo leaves the MC watch out with a colder profile already established across N America. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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