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Dec/Jan Medium/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr
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Latest weeklies with a more impressive -NAO heading into mid Jan, and not much to say about that Pac look. Just damn. Cold air won't be a problem between the EPO ridge and TPV position.
1705190400-grojgNDz428.png
 

Yea best run yet. The weeklies snow map is weenie even for weenies
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28 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

That would be a great overrunning pattern with the Nao locking confluence to our north.

It would potentially be a great pattern for confluence leading to surface HP over S Canada yes. Northerly flow, and waves tracking to our south. Nino 'Come to Papa' pattern.

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20 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Latest weeklies with a more impressive -NAO heading into mid Jan, and not much else to say about that Pac look. Just damn. Cold air won't be a problem between the EPO ridge and TPV position.

1705190400-grojgNDz428.png

 

Bye Bye to the cold air being trapped on the other side of the hemisphere. Things are starting to line up and look Ninoish. 

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I don't pay much attention to that stuff. I focus on a week to 10 days beyond EPS D15 at h5. Beyond that, too much uncertainty.

Yea but the weeklies forecasted an extremely wet and warm Dec back from mid November so they seem to be on a roll
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A monthly ensemble snow mean is always going to skew towards the mean. That cuts both ways. Let’s throw out DCA. BWI averages 6.4”. When it shows 4-5” that’s really bad. Worse than the raw number. When it shows 8-9” that’s really good. You’re never going to see it skewed that far from the mean for a period further than 15 days out. Once a snowy period gets within shorter range then ya you will see those crazy 20” means but never from the 15-40 day mean. 

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