Weather Will Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 22 minutes ago, jayyy said: The December / Christmas torch theory has been long debunked. It’s already 12/19. Most models indicate that a reshuffle of the pattern begins in the coming 8-10ish days. We’ve known that December won’t be a torch for weeks now. A few days in the upper 40s to 50s? Sure. But no 60-80 degree days like recent years past. The current 10 day forecast calls for only 1 day above 50 for a high IMBY with nighttime temps below freezing 7 out of 10 of those days. Much different feel this year. Especially after getting a few inches of snow unexpectedly last week. Feeling different hopefully will translate into a different outcome than the past several years over the next 90 days. Lot of people in this forum including myself will be disappointed if it does not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 Signal still there for some type of storm Dec 27-Jan 1. Good luck trying to figure it out before Monday. Posting the GFS and Euro 500mb charts to show the complexity of the situation. Vorts spinning and diving all over the country each interaction having a different influence in how the storm plays out. I know it's been said already there isn't a ton of cold to work with prior as this seems to trigger the pattern changes we are seeing in the LR. And others also noted the storms at the start of a pattern change usually aren't 'the one'. Still think this bears close watching as a dynamic event can yield interesting results. Does anyone know our track record wrt 'complicated'?I think this event is probably a long shot. It then looks like Jan 2-5th is next on the docket based on the timing of all the shortwaves. Will have more cold air to work with. Just gotta time one of these STJ waves with a TPV diving SE out ahead of it. Let’s make it happen already, I’m really itching to track something . 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 2 hours ago, Heisy said: EPS still looks good to me headed into January, but it doesn’t look as good as it did on the Sunday 12z run . Does it look better than it did 3 weeks ago but not as good as 6 weeks ago? 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 There’s still a good consensus among the 3 global ensembles on the general pattern for the 5 day period at the end of their 0z runs. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 The storm around the 28th looks like rain for the majority of the region, although there is a hint of a second piece of energy dropping in behind on some of the op and ens guidance, with colder air arriving. GFS op has been suggesting this. It looks very close on the heels of the preceding low, so probably not a high probability for surface development close enough to the coast. Something to keep an eye on. Behind that system somewhat colder air should be in place, and there are hints on the ens guidance of one or more weaker waves tracking to our south Jan 1-3 timeframe. Might be a chance or 2 there for an uncomplicated modest event with some frozen. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 My qualitative intuition for late next week is that we need the energy to split and not be consolidated. We need a stronger cutter on the 26/27th to pull in at least less mild air and then a weaker low passing to our south on the 28-30th. Right now it’s all a jumbled mess on guidance with a bunch of shortwaves all over as previous posts have shown. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 19, 2023 Author Share Posted December 19, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 13 hours ago, jayyy said: Sweeeeeet West coast winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 15 hours ago, WxUSAF said: It’s true that we don’t often cash in at the beginning of a good pattern. And I still think anything before 2024 is probably a mixed event or a light event outside the far N/W burbs and mountains. That’s fine for me! But we are (still for now) not charlotte NC or something. We don’t need cross polar flow, some epic -NAO, or Michigan to be buried in snow to have a chance. We don’t even need below normal temps! We're not Charlotte, but we certainly don't need to move to Richmond anymore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 I'm still interested in the storm right after Christmas. That forecasted midwest low on the gfs is killing our chances, and though the euro isn't good, it doesn't look as bad. I'm going to keep hoping for a Christmas miracle. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 19, 2023 Author Share Posted December 19, 2023 23 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: I'm still interested in the storm right after Christmas. That forecasted midwest low on the gfs is killing our chances, and though the euro isn't good, it doesn't look as bad. I'm going to keep hoping for a Christmas miracle. Looking at the gfs the period right around New Years is at least interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 24 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: I'm still interested in the storm right after Christmas. That forecasted midwest low on the gfs is killing our chances, and though the euro isn't good, it doesn't look as bad. I'm going to keep hoping for a Christmas miracle. Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Looking at the gfs the period right around New Years is at least interesting Just loop the H5 plot of the gfs and there are soooo many shortwaves. Northern and southern stream. Going to get lots of solutions, but does seem like we’re in the game. As I said before though, we need more energy in a storm around the 26th to bring in cooler air earlier. Otherwise we have to wait until after the 28/29th for a workable airmass. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 Storm around the 28th or so just seems rushed to me. Pattern is just changing and we rarely do well on the front end of those. I'm just happy to see the pattern not being can-kicked at this point. As for storms, so long as there is no more kicking, I think we will start tracking after Christmas but it's probably going to be stuff for early January, which is great if it works out that way. If we can start tracking as we enter prime-climo, that's great timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 Ensembles still look good for a pattern change on the 28th. Still no sign of a can kick 15 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 As we all know, Niño winters tend to be backloaded historically, so the idea of more persistent blocking showing up from mid/late January through February makes sense. If we are able to cash in on a respectable storm or two (3-6 / 4-8 type) from Dec 28 - January 14th, we should be setup nicely to end the season at or above normal as far as snowfall is concerned. Imagine we’ll see a week or two where the pattern reloads in mid January before the grand finale during prime climo (late Jan thru feb) Let’s get ‘er done!General thought looking at today’s models remains the same. Models are showing a crap load shortwaves flying around both the NS / SS, while the NA and PAC are reshuffling. The next 10-14 days look extremely chaotic, which means we could see a discreet threat show up in the short to medium range. Could also mean we get nada. Trend will hopefully be our friend. No use in getting too bogged down on specifics from range. The exact surface depiction will change 4x a day with that many waves flying around. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 6 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Ensembles still look good for a pattern change on the 28th. Still no sign of a can kick 12z GEFS appears ready to dump some legit cross polar flow on us between Jan 4 to 6. Would really get a snowpack up in the source region. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 13 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 12z GEFS appears ready to dump some legit cross polar flow on us between Jan 4 to 6. Would really get a snowpack up in the source region. yeah, can’t complain at all. good pattern and cold pretty much everywhere to boot 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 If I had to be critical, I'd prefer that western Canadian ridge to be positioned further west, and some better heights in the NAO domain. Otherwise, that's pretty solid. It's nice to see the temperature anomalies in Canada cooling off a bit more. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 19, 2023 Author Share Posted December 19, 2023 20 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: If I had to be critical, I'd prefer that western Canadian ridge to be positioned further west, and some better heights in the NAO domain. Otherwise, that's pretty solid. It's nice to see the temperature anomalies in Canada cooling off a bit more. This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 I don't think this necessarily hurts us much this year since we're kinda MECS/HECS hunting, that's how Nino's work. If we don't get at least one MECS level storm were very unlikely to have an above avg snowfall year. But a thought I've been having watching it take two waves and a week to recover the thermal profile over eastern North America...and having watched this same thing play out several times in recent years...one of the biggest reasons why we've lost a lot of the 3-6/4-8 type storms of years past is that when its warm its so freaking warm, that it takes weeks for the thermal boundary to recover and set the stage for snow...and often in years where a better pattern is transient we waste the whole window. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 One worry to check off the list for the foreseeable future is any type of SPV recovery and consolidation over the pole. This is a h384 plot but warming starts around D8. GEFS have been consistent and pretty impressive for an ens mean. This should go well with our -NAO in late Jan-Feb. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 Looking at the progression of everything I am increasingly worried I will be missing some "fun" when I have to be out of the area from Feb 2-10th. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 From @griteater 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: From @griteater Less tropical, colder rain and wind? Sorry. Couldn't help it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Looking at the progression of everything I am increasingly worried I will be missing some "fun" when I have to be out of the area from Feb 2-10th. It's a sacrifice I'm willing to make for you. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: If I had to be critical, I'd prefer that western Canadian ridge to be positioned further west, and some better heights in the NAO domain. Otherwise, that's pretty solid. It's nice to see the temperature anomalies in Canada cooling off a bit more. Loving where the ridge is on the GFS. I agree with you on the NAO though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Loving where the ridge is on the GFS. I agree with you on the NAO though. If we can't maintain a neutral or -NAO, having the Canadian ridge further west can sometimes compensate for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 51 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Looking at the progression of everything I am increasingly worried I will be missing some "fun" when I have to be out of the area from Feb 2-10th. I thought my timing was bad. Whew. I'll be in Mexico from this Saturday to the 2nd of Jan and I'm legit scared. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 19, 2023 Author Share Posted December 19, 2023 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I thought my timing was bad. Whew. I'll be in Mexico from this Saturday to the 2nd of Jan and I'm legit scared. Just don’t drink the water 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 It would be nice to see favorable arrive sooner rather than always later. Initially back in late Nov looked like mid Dec then around 25th and now New aYears and perhaps mid Jan Yes ninos are usually back loaded but they are also usually consistent with forecasts prior to the back loaded onset. I will gladly eat crow but I can assure you this pushing back pattern needs to cease by end of month or it likely never will. Always remember the Vodka Cold fiasco and there have been several more since then. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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