Dec/Jan Medium/Long Range Disco

[WEATHER53]

Just now, jayyy said:

 

Fixed it for you. Ensembles are very useful up to the 10-14 day window, especially when analyzing trends and the big picture pattern. Ensembles are models as well. Posting 300 hour surface maps / thermals? Useless.


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Do not alter my posts in order to bolster your errant beliefs. 

[jayyy]

Do not alter my posts in order to bolster your errant beliefs. 

My beliefs are not errant whatsoever. There are METS in here who post ensembles well outside 5 days. PSU listed a plethora of examples of storms that were sniffed out at day 10 by analyzing the impending pattern on ensembles. The only one with “errant beliefs” here is you.

[WEATHER53]

2 minutes ago, jayyy said:

 

Fixed it for you. Ensembles are very useful up to the 10-14 day window, especially when analyzing trends and the big picture pattern. Ensembles are models as well. Posting 300 hour surface maps / thermals? Useless. The distinction matters, IMO.

It’s encouraging to see the positive trends continue at h5 - especially in the NAO domain and seeing the PAC Jet relax. I honestly think we have a better shot around the 28th-31st than many think.

 

You feel strongly about you wishes but this ain’t some damn political board where you pull that kind of stuff to bolster your hopes.

Sitting here right now I guarantee you the 10-14 day outlook will cover all the bases during the next 1-5 days .

 

[stormy]

5 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

You feel strongly about you wishes but this ain’t some damn political board where you pull that kind of stuff to bolster your hopes.

Sitting here right now I guarantee you the 10-14 day outlook will cover all the bases during the next 1-5 days .

 

I don't know how to deal with this.

[Eskimo Joe]

Webb doubling down.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1736857404233732178?t=O3FCHXnNyaWiPCw1pn9q6Q&s=19

 

[anotherman]

Webb doubling down.
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1736857404233732178?t=O3FCHXnNyaWiPCw1pn9q6Q&s=19
 

[North Balti Zen]

Can we all just agree to stop putting webb’s crap in here?

[jayyy]

Do  not alter my posts piss ass. 
PSU can carry his own torch boy. 

Why are you talking about politics and making things personal by name calling And what does carrying torches have to do with the fact that I’m pointing out why you’re wrong - backed by a comment made by a very knowledgeable member just a few hours ago. The biggest storms we’ve seen over the past 10-20 years have ALL been sniffed out on ensembles well before day 5. That’s just a fact. It’s inherently clear that you can’t handle having a debate, and you’re making a fool of yourself.

Please move your emotions and bullshit posts to another thread like the panic room.

[DarkSharkWX]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Webb doubling down.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1736857404233732178?t=O3FCHXnNyaWiPCw1pn9q6Q&s=19

 

by his snowcover logic or whatever shouldnt have 2022-23 winter been a cold and snowy one for the EC bc of how cold the continent was in dec??

thats like saying why do we have summer if winter is so cold 

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, jayyy said:

My beliefs are not errant whatsoever. There are METS in here who post ensembles well outside 5 days. PSU listed a plethora of examples of storms that were sniffed out at day 10 by analyzing the impending pattern on ensembles. The only one with “errant beliefs” here is you.

It’s not worth it. You can’t logic someone out of something they didn’t logic themselves into. 

[jayyy]

It’s not worth it. You can’t logic someone out of something they didn’t logic themselves into. 

Got a solid point there.

[Heisy]

18z gfs actually building in a 50/50 low for the 28th time frame event. Could get interesting…


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[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

18z gfs actually building in a 50/50 low for the 28th time frame event. Could get interesting…


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Pretty solid HP as well. Would like it a little stronger. But that is a really nice look. 

[jayyy]

18z gfs actually building in a 50/50 low for the 28th time frame event. Could get interesting…


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50/50 showing up, 1032 high in Canada… could get interesting, especially for places inland.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

11 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

by his snowcover logic or whatever shouldnt have 2022-23 winter been a cold and snowy one for the EC bc of how cold the continent was in dec??

thats like saying why do we have summer if winter is so cold 

But last winter WAS cold (though not really snowy)...

...

...

...

...for all of 48 hours just around Christmas. 

Seriously though, yeah, we had that highly amplified pattern in December with the blast of Arctic cold and then it warmed right back up and we never recovered.  My family in northeast Ohio got a few inches of snow and a flash freeze with gusty winds in that pre-Christmas outbreak.  I visited them over New Year's weekend and by then it was getting into the 60s there (on one day, at least).  I seriously contemplated sitting out on the deck or on the front porch one evening, it was so warm.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Pretty solid HP as well. Would like it a little stronger. But that is a really nice look. 

Yeah, for sure!  Maybe it's "not the strongest" but depending on how it evolves and with a quasi 50/50 there to hold it around long enough?  At least something interesting to look at for once.

[Heisy]

If it plays out as currently pronged we’d need to time the N/S 50/50 perfectly with the meandering big ULL down south. This run we had some decent confluence setup for a bit. the airmass headed into the event is putrid. Think the main low is gonna take way too long though.

Even if this one misses/rain it gives me hope for Jan and Feb because we’re plenty of STJ influenced storms. Matter of time till we time something we’ll especially if we get -EPO


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[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

If it plays out as currently pronged we’d need to time the N/S 50/50 perfectly with the meandering big ULL down south. This run we had some decent confluence setup for a bit. the airmass headed into the event is putrid. Think the main low is gonna take way too long though.

Even if this one misses/rain it gives me hope for Jan and Feb because we’re plenty of STJ influenced storms. Matter of time till we time something we’ll especially if we get -EPO


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Yeah I saw the subsequent evolution...I know, it's way out there!...there's actually a primary way far to the west, in western KY/TN with secondary development (?) in the Carolinas, probably too far inland.  Sorry, I shouldn't be getting into those kinds of details at this point for that, but long and the short, I like seeing these "potentials" popping up more rather than guaranteed rainstorms.

[nj2va]

Ski resorts are loving the 18z GFS for next Friday's threat.

[poolz1]

5 minutes ago, Heisy said:

If it plays out as currently pronged we’d need to time the N/S 50/50 perfectly with the meandering big ULL down south. This run we had some decent confluence setup for a bit. the airmass headed into the event is putrid. Think the main low is gonna take way too long though.

Even if this one misses/rain it gives me hope for Jan and Feb because we’re plenty of STJ influenced storms. Matter of time till we time something we’ll especially if we get -EPO


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Agreed that it just a matter of time and this is a great sign for winter in general.  But, the airmass is respectable...just no block to lock in the high.  Dews 12 hrs before precip are in the low 10s high single digits.  Just need to adjust timing on either feature and we have a decent thread the needle event.  Looks like 12z GEFS.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

36 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Why are you talking about politics and making things personal by name calling And what does carrying torches have to do with the fact that I’m pointing out why you’re wrong - backed by a comment made by a very knowledgeable member just a few hours ago. The biggest storms we’ve seen over the past 10-20 years have ALL been sniffed out on ensembles well before day 5. That’s just a fact. It’s inherently clear that you can’t handle having a debate, and you’re making a fool of yourself.

Please move your emotions and bullshit posts to another thread like the panic room.

"Your majesty, you look like the piss ass (boy)!"...

[Kevin Reilly]

4 hours ago, stormy said:

As progged by the GEFS, the 28 - 30 system is still too warm.  But, it may be setting the stage for the next system by pulling colder air down from the Lakes.

Yes, this is fantasy-land beyond 300 hrs. but we could have a winner in the first 5 days of Jan.

Source of origination, northwest Gulf is prime all the way back to the 60's. Usually a general track to Alabama/ southeast North Carolina and up the east coast has produced. Recently, eastward across the Gulf intensifying up the east coast as the GFS paints is good. Upper air temps. look good to support snow.

The GEFS contradicts itself at 360 by showing rain with a minus 4 850 and the 540 in N.C...... The Op may be onto something.

 

Warm tongue of air off the Atlantic Ocean way too much fetch it happens often lately going back over the past 15 years especially due to our torched Atlantic Ocean!

[Heisy]

You can sort of see the heights near the 50/50 land look more prominent on 18z GEFS. Gonna take a lot of work for cities to get snow during this time frame, but inland can def be looking at a big one if things roll right


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[Ralph Wiggum]

3 hours ago, aldie 22 said:

I'll wait for Ralphs interpretation

Looks....amazing. We will have flush hits in Jan if those looks verify. Of this I have little doubt. I have nothing to add to @CAPE analysis he covered all bases. 

[WxUSAF]

6 minutes ago, Heisy said:

You can sort of see the heights near the 50/50 land look more prominent on 18z GEFS. Gonna take a lot of work for cities to get snow during this time frame, but inland can def be looking at a big one if things roll right


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That’s a good change, but a stronger storm in the plains is not. Need a weak slider for a lot of us to get a majority frozen event at that time.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

Do  not alter my posts piss ass. 
PSU can carry his own torch boy. 

[Eskimo Joe]

8 minutes ago, Heisy said:

You can sort of see the heights near the 50/50 land look more prominent on 18z GEFS. Gonna take a lot of work for cities to get snow during this time frame, but inland can def be looking at a big one if things roll right
 

Hope that low in Iowa goes away.

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Webb doubling down.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1736857404233732178?t=O3FCHXnNyaWiPCw1pn9q6Q&s=19

 

So the thing is, he is not making any specific predictions per se.  Notice the wordings: "may not mean", "you may feel", "favorability/potential".  If our hoped for pattern does indeed fail, he will surely crow "I told you so".  If there is an epic snowy period, he'll just say: "I said 'may', not 'will'".

I'd have more respect if he said something specific like: I predict that the advertised pattern will occur but very little snowfall will result..."

[nj2va]

25 minutes ago, Heisy said:

You can sort of see the heights near the 50/50 land look more prominent on 18z GEFS. Gonna take a lot of work for cities to get snow during this time frame, but inland can def be looking at a big one if things roll right


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Pretty good signal on the surface map with high pressure anomalies north of the area and LP in the SE.

[Weather Will]

Just looking at the next 10-11 days, looks too warm for snow.  WB 18Z GEFS.  Maybe it will look different by the end of this week.  H5 maps may look perfect but it still has to be 32 or below.  I am not being pessimistic about winter, just suggest people look for some cold air being established first, then look for shortwaves.