jayyy Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 Rain to snow for the 28th with a trailing piece of energy and cold HP pressing south, then with cold in place the next wave tracks underneath and snows on us. That idea has been showing up on the ens mean, and makes sense with the advertised pattern evolution.I’d take that type of setup in early winter all day long. Don’t want a wrapped up storm along the coast flooding the coastal plain with SE winds as it approaches. A 3-6” areawide type storm would be a perfect appetizer and would boost morale around here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 Fun gfs run. Nice to start seeing fantasy snow. 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Fun gfs run. Nice to start seeing fantasy snow. just a parade of coastals 9 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 The debs got quiet today 6 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 Fun gfs run. Nice to start seeing fantasy snow. Yep, starting to feel really good about January. The 28-New Years range event is a long shot. Unless a 50/50 forms out ahead of the main low that’s a Rainer, but after that it’s game on. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 The debs got quiet today Even Webb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 2 minutes ago, anotherman said: Even Webb? Don't take things seriously from an individual who eats ramen like this: 16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 3 minutes ago, anotherman said: Even Webb? He'll be posting flame emojis until the east coast does in fact get cold/snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 Don't take things seriously from an individual who eats ramen like this: 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The debs got quiet today They'll be back (said in Terminator voice). Seriously though, if this good period does actually verify and is not just a smokescreen a la 2019, I suspect there will still be inevitable periods where the SIGNAL bounces around and the look degrades. Only shit-the-blind type patterns show up and hour 384 and march unmodified down to hour 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Don't take things seriously from an individual who eats ramen like this: Oh, my!!! That gives flashbacks to @H2O's Vienna wieners in spaghetti-o's jell-o!!! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 10 hours ago, jayyy said: “Very warm” is kind of a disingenuous way to characterize December thus far. Sure, it hasn’t been cold (rarely is in December nowadays - especially before winter has officially begun) but we also haven’t torched like we saw back in 2015 and in other strong niño years. It’s primarily been in the 40s here and I’ve seen 3” of snow so far this season. Certainly nothing to write home about, but it’s been better than what many, including myself, were expecting just 3-4 weeks ago. Highly doubt January ends at +4. I don’t think it’s front to end cold - nature of the niño - but I am going to go out on a limb here and say that January ends up being average to -1 "Very warm" is actually for the Upper Midwest. They will finish the month some +10-15F. The post said I was primarily focusing on +EPO December's, so I'm not sure why it became EC-centric, maybe because I'm posting it in this forum. The "above average" usually spreads to the eastern 2/3 of the US in January, and this was my 2nd analog match showing that so it's something to watch out for. It also rolls forward to somewhat of a warm March, average February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 That deform band on the GFS though. 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: That deform band on the GFS though. Only 240 hours to go! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 nice changes so far w more ridging poking into the arctic domain and low being pulled further W into the Aleutians 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 34 minutes ago, anotherman said: Even Webb? I said Deb’s not trolls 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 really nice trend with the Pacific jet too. less oppressive and is leading to more ridging into western Canada 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: really nice trend with the Pacific jet too. less oppressive and is leading to more ridging into western Canada Yep. Should allow for some access to some colder air for once. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 Need to see individuals as temps are still warmish, but I’d take my chances here. 12 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 37 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: just a parade of coastals Thank god.. I don't need my soybean crops to suffer again this year.. what do the tea leaves say about when that 540 line might cross into the US? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 13 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: EPS was not a good model last year. Like 10 times they showed digital snow and a good pattern.. 18z GEFS is a bit concerning at the end: The Aleutian low is evaporating and the NAO doesn't really have a good loading pattern to go negative.. I get the demand for the Euro to have ensembles, but man it's off This is perception bias. At no point has the GEFS been objectively more accurate than the EPS. Actually, recently there have been some articles implying NCEP is thrilled that recent upgrades have simply made the GFS products more competitive but still clearly in 3rd place. This is by no means a shot at NCEP, they have made significant progress and advancements with their products and they have limitations the ECMWF does not. Yes, there were a few times the EPS showed a better pattern in the long range than the GEFS last winter and it was wrong. But there were also numerous times the GEFS showed a better pattern and was wrong, you just don't remember them because that is the status quo. Additionally most of the times the EPS was wrong it was also in opposition to the GEPS as well...this time the GEPS was in agreement. Finally, last winter the "better looks" also were in conflict with the base state and what we would expect given the enso. This year the better looks are in alignment of what it should look like. In addition to this statement being based on a biased interpretation of reality I also think its not a comparable situation. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 15 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: really nice trend with the Pacific jet too. less oppressive and is leading to more ridging into western Canada Forcing should line up to match enso and pdo phase as well....probably why we are seeing better placement of the Aleutian low. MJO headed the right way to match. Things are falling into place rather nicely going forward. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I said Deb’s not trolls 12 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Thank god.. I don't need my soybean crops to suffer again this year.. what do the tea leaves say about when that 540 line might cross into the US? It's like the bat signal... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I said Deb’s not trolls I’m fully serious when I say I expect that fairly soon he will be saying that the MJO is going to move through 8-1-2 TOO FAST, despite him confidently asserting before that it would get stuck in 5-6-7. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 As progged by the GEFS, the 28 - 30 system is still too warm. But, it may be setting the stage for the next system by pulling colder air down from the Lakes. Yes, this is fantasy-land beyond 300 hrs. but we could have a winner in the first 5 days of Jan. Source of origination, northwest Gulf is prime all the way back to the 60's. Usually a general track to Alabama/ southeast North Carolina and up the east coast has produced. Recently, eastward across the Gulf intensifying up the east coast as the GFS paints is good. Upper air temps. look good to support snow. The GEFS contradicts itself at 360 by showing rain with a minus 4 850 and the 540 in N.C...... The Op may be onto something. 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 we used to have standards on these boards 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 people who post 300hr+ maps should go sit a corner and think about what they've done wrong 8 2 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 Euro still has the light disturbance on the 23/24th. Verbatim it’s some light rain and FRZA for colder spots. Worth keeping casual eye on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 58 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Need to see individuals as temps are still warmish, but I’d take my chances here. Hope we can get a Canadian high pressure to emerge on guidance in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 48 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I’m fully serious when I say I expect that fairly soon he will be saying that the MJO is going to move through 8-1-2 TOO FAST, despite him confidently asserting before that it would get stuck in 5-6-7. He knows all the pressure points Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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