aldie 22 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There was can kicking, but only about a week, which I suspected would be the case. Early January is the typical timing of a flip in ninos with a similar December longwave pattern. We might have a shot at something just before new years but it’s still likely just after that true cold starts to take hold. . But make no mistake guidance was originally rushing the pattern by about a week. 12 days ago this was the look for Xmas on the EPS. We still get to that but not until closer to New Years. I said we’re fine as long as we don’t get to new years without the pattern change eminent. BUT…if we did get to Jan with no sign of the pac backing off and a raging +AO history says it’s game over for getting a favorable long wave pattern this winter. I think some just don’t like having that hanging over our heads. But that wasn’t a prediction just a factual statement of what historical data says. In all past similar December Ninos the pattern either begins to flip by early January or it stays crap all winter. Thanks for that...wonder if the term can kicking should have a specific time definition since we are looking at guidance from a distance and if it nails it give or take a week is that really can kicking or a pretty damn good simulation of a pattern change? I suppose some expect a model to nail timing to the exact minute of a day. Appreciate the response Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 It’s slower but hints of the AO/NAO starting to flip at the very end of the gefs also. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 23 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: @Ralph Wiggum…that longwave pattern argues for weaker progressive waves. Everything is positively tilted with an eastward lean. That’s good for us, there’s no deep cold air yet so we need something that doesn’t wrap in a bunch of warm air. Just need a weak wave sliding to our south and hopefully there’s a band of snow on the north side. My exact thoughts when I looked at the eps especially. Textbook what we would want to see without major cold around to tap into. Hopefully this week's 2 big lw systems (today/tomorrow and then the one offshore) can rob the atmosphere of some energy for the wrapped up stuff for a little bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Pretty interested in the extended for the first time since Thanksgiving. Imo only- it's a decent storm look but not a big one. A big wrapped up storm would prob end up too warm or carry elevated risk of being warm. Something moving more laterally to our south should have no problem having some ok air to work with. Don't think we can survive big SE flow in advance of anything yet until North America and the Atlantic cool down some more. Modest storm with northerly flow start to finish could produce something we haven't seen in a long time lol.... you know... one of those 4-8" snows that don't leave too many people out lol. Wut?!? Just throwin down some random thoughts. Nothing serious or well researched Hey there, Bob...good to see you! A 4-8" snow? I think I've seen olde-tyme black and white photos of those, in some ancient history text! You know, the kind that has a caption such as, "President Teddy Roosevelt frolics in a Washington Snowe-Storme, challenging the attending press to a snowball fight. 'I say BULLY to this snow, the cold air is good for the sinuses!', the President reportedly said." But seriously, you're totally right and I agree about that. A solid event of 4-8" from some weaker but decent wave moving west-east is the best chance at this time of year, rather than a wrapped-up system. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 On latest WB GEFS extended it takes us into the second week of January before the continent really starts to get cold. Hopefully before then we stay just cold enough with some moderate storms that slide to our south as already discussed. in terms of can kicking, the can keeps kicking on bringing sustained below normal temps. Let's see if this timeframe holds just in time for peak winter climo. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 11 minutes ago, Weather Will said: On latest WB GEFS extended it takes us into the second week of January before the continent really starts to get cold. Hopefully before then we stay just cold enough with some moderate storms that slide to our south as already discussed. in terms of can kicking, the can keeps kicking on bringing sustained below normal temps. Let's see if this timeframe holds just in time for peak winter climo. We don't need big negative departures in January. Seasonably cold with a storm track to the south of us will do just fine alot of the time. Imo big cold for us means congrats VA beach. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: It’s slower but hints of the AO/NAO starting to flip at the very end of the gefs also. the GEPS and EPS put the GEFS to shame. really nice seeing heights in AK flip positive, giving us our all-important -EPO. no more Pacific air issues EPS is the best looking in the Atlantic, though. BN heights over Nova Scotia and AN heights nosing into Greenland 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 24 minutes ago, Weather Will said: On latest WB GEFS extended it takes us into the second week of January before the continent really starts to get cold. Hopefully before then we stay just cold enough with some moderate storms that slide to our south as already discussed. in terms of can kicking, the can keeps kicking on bringing sustained below normal temps. Let's see if this timeframe holds just in time for peak winter climo. Given that the last several runs of GEFS have mildish temps for the east at day 15, no surprise the extended tool takes longer to cool things down. EPS and GEPS both have below avg temps by early Jan. The depicted h5 pattern in general is not as quite as good on the GEFS, and the other 2 models have the NAO trending negative heading into January. Regardless it isn't that important to see blues over us on a temp anomaly panel 15+ days out. The advertised h5 pattern progression is what we want to see. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the GEPS and EPS put the GEFS to shame. really nice seeing heights in AK flip positive, giving us our all-important -EPO. no more Pacific air issues EPS is the best looking in the Atlantic, though. BN heights over Nova Scotia and AN heights nosing into Greenland That’s a really sweet look on the EPS. With the Pacific looking that like, we don’t need a perfect Atlantic. But saying that, roll that forward a few more days, and the Atlantic would be even better. You’ve got to like where we’re going in early January. And I still think the few days leading up to New Years will present an opportunity especially for areas west of 95. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Looking good! 8 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Delayed scenario creeping in late November it was mid December for the change now Christmas to end of month and now some hints of mid Jan. No negative Nellie here but the reality for last 20 years is when cold onsets start getting pushed back they mostly continue to get pushed back. 4 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 13 minutes ago, Ji said: Looking good! Maybe those blues can migrate north from Cuba. New cold air source since the other one seems to be on vacation…in Cuba 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Maybe those blues can migrate north from Cuba. New cold air source since the other one seems to be on vacation…in Cuba This is one of the most frustrating winters I can remember. 6 inches of wasted water since Nov 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Oh dear, the mood flipped. 1 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 I don't know why anyone cares what the GFS depicts beyond 5 days.... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Gfs basically punts December, but that end of month setup is intriguing. We’re due for a NYE snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 I don't know why anyone cares what the GFS depicts beyond 5 days....From your postings….i think you care the most 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 We can move this to banter but I do post a lot of ensemble runs beyond 5 days. WB 12Z GEFS is colder this run at day 10. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 I am on a bus to nyc and bored lol. Just trolling the bored. The earlier map I posted was 6z gfs too boot! 1 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 11 minutes ago, Ji said: I am on a bus to nyc and bored lol. Just trolling the bored. The earlier map I posted was 6z gfs too boot! I just saw you rolling up 95 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 WB 12Z EURO, dreaming of a white Christmas Eve? 10 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 1 hour ago, Ji said: This is one of the most frustrating winters I can remember. 6 inches of wasted water since Nov 20 That "6 inches of wasted water" was wonderful drought mitigation for western folks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 27 minutes ago, stormy said: That "6 inches of wasted water" was wonderful drought mitigation for western folks. Our fields and horses/clients horses certainly appreciated it. Really wish we could get some snow on the ground for the water tables this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 17, 2023 Author Share Posted December 17, 2023 33 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EURO, dreaming of a white Christmas Eve? Nobody will look at this … too busy looking at the pattern in 6 weeks lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 1 hour ago, Ji said: I am on a bus to nyc and bored lol. Just trolling the bored. The earlier map I posted was 6z gfs too boot! We still have February and March! Patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 24 minutes ago, Benjamn3 said: Our fields and horses/clients horses certainly appreciated it. Really wish we could get some snow on the ground for the water tables this summer. We finally have a trickle from the spring at the farm our horse is boarded at in Finksburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 positive changes on EPS so far with atlantic and pacific domain, looks great 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 23 minutes ago, Benjamn3 said: Our fields and horses/clients horses certainly appreciated it. Really wish we could get some snow on the ground for the water tables this summer. My water table has risen 1.9 ft during the 6 inches of wasted water. Still exactly 20 ft. below April 12. We need at least 12 - 15 more inches of that wasted water between now and April. A lot of heavy wet snow cover would also be very beneficial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: We finally have a trickle from the spring at the farm our horse is boarded at in Finksburg. Good to hear. Our wells are good even in a drought by luck. I just worry about the health of the grass in the fields. We’re down in Fincastle VA. I love cold but also hate it when water freezes and I’m running around freezing my ass off busting water when the heating elements in the water goes bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 -NAO builds as well as retrograding the heights in W NA further W into Alaska, as well as the aleutian low 14 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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