Dec/Jan Medium/Long Range Disco

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

38 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Latest Euro weeklies. A bit better in the NAO domain for early Jan. Overall, hard to complain about that look.

Looks like a smiling pirate with an eye patch.  Arrrr, matey, here's your blocking and your southern stream...now get to work on finding some snow!

[psuhoffman]

@CAPEIf the pacific pattern retrogrades to the degree guidance is now suggesting we only need the nao to be mediocre.  This is a new development. Guidance backed off the nao but then improved the pac to compensate. It’s not quite 2003/2015 levels (both true modoki) but those years overcame a raging positive nao at times. If the pac gets to the look on guidance by New Years a near neutral nao is fine.  Just don’t have a strong tpv sitting near Baffin and we’ll be ok with that pac look. It’s not a hecs look but given the Stj could be productive. And who knows you get a well timed 50/50 and Feb 2003 can happen despite a +nao. Get our flow out of the NW with a trough as that STJ is directed at us and I like our chances. 
 

I know I’m changing my tune a little on the Nao but I didn’t expect the pac to retrograde as much as guidance is now suggesting. That changes the equation in our favor some. 

[brooklynwx99]

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@CAPEIf the pacific pattern retrogrades to the degree guidance is now suggesting we only need the nao to be mediocre.  This is a new development. Guidance backed off the nao but then improved the pac to compensate. It’s not quite 2003/2015 levels (both true modoki) but those years overcame a raging positive nao at times. If the pac gets to the look on guidance by New Years a near neutral nao is fine.  Just don’t have a strong tpv sitting near Baffin and we’ll be ok with that pac look. It’s not a hecs look but given the Stj could be productive. And who knows you get a well timed 50/50 and Feb 2003 can happen despite a +nao. Get our flow out of the NW with a trough as that STJ is directed at us and I like our chances. 
 

I know I’m changing my tune a little on the Nao but I didn’t expect the pac to retrograde as much as guidance is now suggesting. That changes the equation in our favor some. 

i expect another significant blocking spell at some point. probably late in the winter. i’d be surprised if there wasn’t another one

[CAPE]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@CAPEIf the pacific pattern retrogrades to the degree guidance is now suggesting we only need the nao to be mediocre.  This is a new development. Guidance backed off the nao but then improved the pac to compensate. It’s not quite 2003/2015 levels (both true modoki) but those years overcame a raging positive nao at times. If the pac gets to the look on guidance by New Years a near neutral nao is fine.  Just don’t have a strong tpv sitting near Baffin and we’ll be ok with that pac look. It’s not a hecs look but given the Stj could be productive. And who knows you get a well timed 50/50 and Feb 2003 can happen despite a +nao. Get our flow out of the NW with a trough as that STJ is directed at us and I like our chances. 
 

I know I’m changing my tune a little on the Nao but I didn’t expect the pac to retrograde as much as guidance is now suggesting. That changes the equation in our favor some. 

I'm all in. I do think we will see more -NAO episodes middle to latter part of winter, but I will roll with the more favorable Pacific and a neutral NAO. That combo has worked well in past Ninos and in some scenarios gives a little more breathing room for the lowlands with more cold air available. 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, may be a hiccup as it appears to totally dissolve any semblance in the NPAC for that matter. You'd think there'd be one somewhere.

     

It weakens(apparently) but we don't want it to become some deep monster vortex pumping Pacific air into NA either. The NE Pac low is a prominent feature of a Nino, so it wont just 'disappear'.

[WxUSAF]

10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i expect another significant blocking spell at some point. probably late in the winter. i’d be surprised if there wasn’t another one

I think we’re gonna get a 2-3 week heater at some point, especially if we get SSW-induced blocking in late January or early February. This period starting after Xmas into the first week or two of January is different, but still looks quite promising if we believe the weeklies for now. Strange though, I’d heard it on good authority the Uber pac jet was going to last until early January. 

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I'm all in. I do think we will see more -NAO episodes middle to latter part of winter, but I will roll with the more favorable Pacific and a neutral NAO. That combo has worked well in past Ninos and in some scenarios gives a little more breathing room for the lowlands with more cold air available. 

An epo dominant pattern could be more favorable for us in a Nino than a Nina. STJ!  If we get a closer regime then do develop true blocking later…away we go!  There’s no limit to how good they could get. Lots of ifs there of course but a big win is at least on the table this year for a change.  

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

I think we’re gonna get a 2-3 week heater at some point, especially if we get SSW-induced blocking in late January or early February. This period starting after Xmas into the first week or two of January is different, but still looks quite promising if we believe the weeklies for now. Strange though, I’d heard it on good authority the Uber pac jet was going to last until early January. 

These twitter dweebs and the raging Pac jet. Annoying AF. I'm sure they understand the core characteristics of a Nino, but they have their agendas.

[psuhoffman]

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

An epo dominant pattern could be more favorable for us in a Nino than a Nina. STJ!  If we get a closer regime then do develop true blocking later…away we go!  There’s no limit to how good they could get. Lots of ifs there of course but a big win is at least on the table this year for a change.  

Yeah it works pretty well in some cases in a Nina, but more so for the immediate coast in a progressive flow regime. In a Nino we get the cold plus the persistent southern waves- just need a bit more timing without a favorable NA.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

20 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i expect another significant blocking spell at some point. probably late in the winter. i’d be surprised if there wasn’t another one

Don't Ninos typically favor blocking in the 2nd half of winter, at some point?  Not sure how correct that is or how prevalent, but that's my understanding such as it is.

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Don't Ninos typically favor blocking in the 2nd half of winter, at some point?  Not sure how correct that is or how prevalent, but that's my understanding such as it is.

The only Nino similar to this in terms of strength and composition along with a comparable QBO that didn’t feature extensive blocking was 1992. There are theories why that year was such an anomaly. 

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah it works pretty well in some cases in a Nina, but more so for the immediate coast in a progressive flow regime. In a Nino we get the cold plus the persistent southern waves- just need a bit more timing without a favorable NA.

i also love seeing the split flow and Pacific wave breaking lead to +PNA. that’s a recipe for big storms

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

The only Nino similar to this in terms of strength and composition along with a comparable QBO that didn’t feature extensive blocking was 1992. There are theories why that year was such an anomaly. 

Volcanic eruption being one of the theories??  I believe El Chichon erupted in the fall of 1992 as I recall.  (Unless you're referring to the winter of 1991-92?)

[Stormchaserchuck1]

New CPC has us above average Dec 30-Jan 12

https://ibb.co/6ywLWkH

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Always in Zugzwang said:

Volcanic eruption being one of the theories??  I believe El Chichon erupted in the fall of 1992 as I recall.  (Unless you're referring to the winter of 1991-92?)

1991-92. Sorry I tend to refer to winter’s by their Jan/Feb year. It’s was Pinatubo.  

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

1991-92. Sorry I tend to refer to winter’s by their Jan/Feb year. It’s was Pinatubo.  

No problem...totally see why you refer to things that way (one problem with official winter crossing a year!!).  I had forgotten Pinatubo was the year before El Chichon blew.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

This is what top-30 December analogs (US) since 1948 looks like for January:

Dec map: https://ibb.co/GT6sjyY

Jan roll-forward https://ibb.co/RPFQyLC

[stormy]

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

1991-92. Sorry I tend to refer to winter’s by their Jan/Feb year. It’s was Pinatubo.  

Are you sure?????

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, stormy said:

Are you sure?????

About what?

[psuhoffman]

23 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

This is what top-30 December analogs (US) since 1948 looks like for January:

Dec map: https://ibb.co/GT6sjyY

Jan roll-forward https://ibb.co/RPFQyLC

That is incredibly skewed. There are some great years in there, 1987, 2003, 2010, 2014 and equally awful ones 1992, 1998, 2002.  Not sure how such a diverse set is useful. Yea it skews warm overall but without any continuity wrt a tendency within the sample. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

That is incredibly skewed. There are some great years in there, 1987, 2003, 2010, 2014 and equally awful ones 1992, 1998, 2002.  Not sure how such a diverse set is useful. Yea it skews warm overall but without any continuity wrt a tendency within the sample. 

I did + and - matches. About 15 of each, 30 total. For some reason it's having trouble showing in the composite list. Point is pretty clear though that the pattern carries. I found that the EPO-region which is 2SD's positive this December carries to Jan-Feb at 0.3 correlation, or about 60%. It's not saying anything will absolutely happen, but it's a baseline. 

[osfan24]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i expect another significant blocking spell at some point. probably late in the winter. i’d be surprised if there wasn’t another one

We have now kicked blocking all the way to late winter? I thought the NAO was supposed to be negative most of the winter?

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

It weakens(apparently) but we don't want it to become some deep monster vortex pumping Pacific air into NA either. The NE Pac low is a prominent feature of a Nino, so it wont just 'disappear'.

Yeah, that's why I mentioned there should be a semblance. I agree with you totally on the strength for sure brother. 

[ldub23]

New  years  looks  like  it  might  be  cold

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

It weakens(apparently) but we don't want it to become some deep monster vortex pumping Pacific air into NA either. The NE Pac low is a prominent feature of a Nino, so it wont just 'disappear'.

In January, the PNA region starts impacting us colder vs Dec

Quote

 

The +PNA correlates with cold in January, but not so much December

Dec +PNA:

https://ibb.co/tbtHzyR

https://ibb.co/MC130Pk

Jan +PNA:

https://ibb.co/ZGQMXy0

https://ibb.co/cw1tPVc

 

0.1 to 0.5 difference.  We need it to not dry up on models though right as we approach Jan 1, lol

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, ldub23 said:

New  years  looks  like  it  might  be  cold

 

Based off the 18z gfs op? 12z it was in the upper 40s low 50s same time. 

[ldub23]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Based off the 18z gfs op? 12z it was in the upper 40s low 50s same time. 

Im looking for  any sign the  cold  is  coming and  im hoping the  new  year starts  out  cold,

 

[Solution Man]

14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Based off the 18z gfs op? 12z it was in the upper 40s low 50s same time. 

 

[North Balti Zen]

43 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

We have now kicked blocking all the way to late winter? I thought the NAO was supposed to be negative most of the winter?

What in the world are you taking about? Read the thread. No one has said that.