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Dec/Jan Medium/Long Range Disco

WinterWxLuvr

By WinterWxLuvr,
in Mid Atlantic

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted
  On 12/16/2023 at 8:43 PM, CAPE said:

Latest Euro weeklies. A bit better in the NAO domain for early Jan. Overall, hard to complain about that look.

1704758400-oVp4vHLJWro.png

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Looks like a smiling pirate with an eye patch.  Arrrr, matey, here's your blocking and your southern stream...now get to work on finding some snow!

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Bob Chill
Bob Chill

When all guidance starts showing compressed heights in the east oriented WSW-ENE.... I get stoked... I'm pretty stoked  These are the upper level height patterns that can produce snow with just ab

psuhoffman
psuhoffman

This would suck    ……if you’re Webb 

stormtracker
stormtracker

Listen, hold off on the storm talk until I return from Mexico on the 2nd.  If you root for a storm and it comes on the 1st, there’s going to be mysterious “server down” messages on the board from like

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
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@CAPEIf the pacific pattern retrogrades to the degree guidance is now suggesting we only need the nao to be mediocre.  This is a new development. Guidance backed off the nao but then improved the pac to compensate. It’s not quite 2003/2015 levels (both true modoki) but those years overcame a raging positive nao at times. If the pac gets to the look on guidance by New Years a near neutral nao is fine.  Just don’t have a strong tpv sitting near Baffin and we’ll be ok with that pac look. It’s not a hecs look but given the Stj could be productive. And who knows you get a well timed 50/50 and Feb 2003 can happen despite a +nao. Get our flow out of the NW with a trough as that STJ is directed at us and I like our chances. 
 

I know I’m changing my tune a little on the Nao but I didn’t expect the pac to retrograde as much as guidance is now suggesting. That changes the equation in our favor some. 

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brooklynwx99

brooklynwx99

Posted
Posted
  On 12/16/2023 at 9:25 PM, psuhoffman said:

@CAPEIf the pacific pattern retrogrades to the degree guidance is now suggesting we only need the nao to be mediocre.  This is a new development. Guidance backed off the nao but then improved the pac to compensate. It’s not quite 2003/2015 levels (both true modoki) but those years overcame a raging positive nao at times. If the pac gets to the look on guidance by New Years a near neutral nao is fine.  Just don’t have a strong tpv sitting near Baffin and we’ll be ok with that pac look. It’s not a hecs look but given the Stj could be productive. And who knows you get a well timed 50/50 and Feb 2003 can happen despite a +nao. Get our flow out of the NW with a trough as that STJ is directed at us and I like our chances. 
 

I know I’m changing my tune a little on the Nao but I didn’t expect the pac to retrograde as much as guidance is now suggesting. That changes the equation in our favor some. 

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i expect another significant blocking spell at some point. probably late in the winter. i’d be surprised if there wasn’t another one

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
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  On 12/16/2023 at 9:25 PM, psuhoffman said:

@CAPEIf the pacific pattern retrogrades to the degree guidance is now suggesting we only need the nao to be mediocre.  This is a new development. Guidance backed off the nao but then improved the pac to compensate. It’s not quite 2003/2015 levels (both true modoki) but those years overcame a raging positive nao at times. If the pac gets to the look on guidance by New Years a near neutral nao is fine.  Just don’t have a strong tpv sitting near Baffin and we’ll be ok with that pac look. It’s not a hecs look but given the Stj could be productive. And who knows you get a well timed 50/50 and Feb 2003 can happen despite a +nao. Get our flow out of the NW with a trough as that STJ is directed at us and I like our chances. 
 

I know I’m changing my tune a little on the Nao but I didn’t expect the pac to retrograde as much as guidance is now suggesting. That changes the equation in our favor some. 

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I'm all in. I do think we will see more -NAO episodes middle to latter part of winter, but I will roll with the more favorable Pacific and a neutral NAO. That combo has worked well in past Ninos and in some scenarios gives a little more breathing room for the lowlands with more cold air available. 

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
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  On 12/16/2023 at 8:49 PM, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, may be a hiccup as it appears to totally dissolve any semblance in the NPAC for that matter. You'd think there'd be one somewhere.

     

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It weakens(apparently) but we don't want it to become some deep monster vortex pumping Pacific air into NA either. The NE Pac low is a prominent feature of a Nino, so it wont just 'disappear'.

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
Posted
  On 12/16/2023 at 9:41 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

i expect another significant blocking spell at some point. probably late in the winter. i’d be surprised if there wasn’t another one

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I think we’re gonna get a 2-3 week heater at some point, especially if we get SSW-induced blocking in late January or early February. This period starting after Xmas into the first week or two of January is different, but still looks quite promising if we believe the weeklies for now. Strange though, I’d heard it on good authority the Uber pac jet was going to last until early January. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
  On 12/16/2023 at 9:41 PM, CAPE said:

I'm all in. I do think we will see more -NAO episodes middle to latter part of winter, but I will roll with the more favorable Pacific and a neutral NAO. That combo has worked well in past Ninos and in some scenarios gives a little more breathing room for the lowlands with more cold air available. 

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An epo dominant pattern could be more favorable for us in a Nino than a Nina. STJ!  If we get a closer regime then do develop true blocking later…away we go!  There’s no limit to how good they could get. Lots of ifs there of course but a big win is at least on the table this year for a change.  

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
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  On 12/16/2023 at 9:54 PM, WxUSAF said:

I think we’re gonna get a 2-3 week heater at some point, especially if we get SSW-induced blocking in late January or early February. This period starting after Xmas into the first week or two of January is different, but still looks quite promising if we believe the weeklies for now. Strange though, I’d heard it on good authority the Uber pac jet was going to last until early January. 

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These twitter dweebs and the raging Pac jet. Annoying AF. I'm sure they understand the core characteristics of a Nino, but they have their agendas.

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
  On 12/16/2023 at 9:55 PM, psuhoffman said:

An epo dominant pattern could be more favorable for us in a Nino than a Nina. STJ!  If we get a closer regime then do develop true blocking later…away we go!  There’s no limit to how good they could get. Lots of ifs there of course but a big win is at least on the table this year for a change.  

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Yeah it works pretty well in some cases in a Nina, but more so for the immediate coast in a progressive flow regime. In a Nino we get the cold plus the persistent southern waves- just need a bit more timing without a favorable NA.

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted
  On 12/16/2023 at 9:41 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

i expect another significant blocking spell at some point. probably late in the winter. i’d be surprised if there wasn’t another one

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Don't Ninos typically favor blocking in the 2nd half of winter, at some point?  Not sure how correct that is or how prevalent, but that's my understanding such as it is.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
  On 12/16/2023 at 10:02 PM, Always in Zugzwang said:

Don't Ninos typically favor blocking in the 2nd half of winter, at some point?  Not sure how correct that is or how prevalent, but that's my understanding such as it is.

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The only Nino similar to this in terms of strength and composition along with a comparable QBO that didn’t feature extensive blocking was 1992. There are theories why that year was such an anomaly. 

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brooklynwx99

brooklynwx99

Posted
Posted
  On 12/16/2023 at 10:02 PM, CAPE said:

Yeah it works pretty well in some cases in a Nina, but more so for the immediate coast in a progressive flow regime. In a Nino we get the cold plus the persistent southern waves- just need a bit more timing without a favorable NA.

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i also love seeing the split flow and Pacific wave breaking lead to +PNA. that’s a recipe for big storms

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted
  On 12/16/2023 at 10:05 PM, psuhoffman said:

The only Nino similar to this in terms of strength and composition along with a comparable QBO that didn’t feature extensive blocking was 1992. There are theories why that year was such an anomaly. 

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Volcanic eruption being one of the theories??  I believe El Chichon erupted in the fall of 1992 as I recall.  (Unless you're referring to the winter of 1991-92?)

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
  On 12/16/2023 at 10:08 PM, Always in Zugzwang said:

Volcanic eruption being one of the theories??  I believe El Chichon erupted in the fall of 1992 as I recall.  (Unless you're referring to the winter of 1991-92?)

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1991-92. Sorry I tend to refer to winter’s by their Jan/Feb year. It’s was Pinatubo.  

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted
  On 12/16/2023 at 10:10 PM, psuhoffman said:

1991-92. Sorry I tend to refer to winter’s by their Jan/Feb year. It’s was Pinatubo.  

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No problem...totally see why you refer to things that way (one problem with official winter crossing a year!!).  I had forgotten Pinatubo was the year before El Chichon blew.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
  On 12/16/2023 at 10:27 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

This is what top-30 December analogs (US) since 1948 looks like for January:

Dec map: https://ibb.co/GT6sjyY

Jan roll-forward https://ibb.co/RPFQyLC

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That is incredibly skewed. There are some great years in there, 1987, 2003, 2010, 2014 and equally awful ones 1992, 1998, 2002.  Not sure how such a diverse set is useful. Yea it skews warm overall but without any continuity wrt a tendency within the sample. 

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Stormchaserchuck1

Stormchaserchuck1

Posted
Posted
  On 12/16/2023 at 10:50 PM, psuhoffman said:

That is incredibly skewed. There are some great years in there, 1987, 2003, 2010, 2014 and equally awful ones 1992, 1998, 2002.  Not sure how such a diverse set is useful. Yea it skews warm overall but without any continuity wrt a tendency within the sample. 

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I did + and - matches. About 15 of each, 30 total. For some reason it's having trouble showing in the composite list. Point is pretty clear though that the pattern carries. I found that the EPO-region which is 2SD's positive this December carries to Jan-Feb at 0.3 correlation, or about 60%. It's not saying anything will absolutely happen, but it's a baseline. 

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Daniel Boone

Daniel Boone

Posted
Posted
  On 12/16/2023 at 9:53 PM, CAPE said:

It weakens(apparently) but we don't want it to become some deep monster vortex pumping Pacific air into NA either. The NE Pac low is a prominent feature of a Nino, so it wont just 'disappear'.

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Yeah, that's why I mentioned there should be a semblance. I agree with you totally on the strength for sure brother. 

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Stormchaserchuck1

Stormchaserchuck1

Posted
Posted
  On 12/16/2023 at 9:53 PM, CAPE said:

It weakens(apparently) but we don't want it to become some deep monster vortex pumping Pacific air into NA either. The NE Pac low is a prominent feature of a Nino, so it wont just 'disappear'.

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In January, the PNA region starts impacting us colder vs Dec

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The +PNA correlates with cold in January, but not so much December

Dec +PNA:

https://ibb.co/tbtHzyR

https://ibb.co/MC130Pk

Jan +PNA:

https://ibb.co/ZGQMXy0

https://ibb.co/cw1tPVc

 

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0.1 to 0.5 difference.  We need it to not dry up on models though right as we approach Jan 1, lol

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