WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 Go. Here’s to better times 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 Good call firing up a new thread. Let’s keep emotions out of this one as much as possible, folks. Model analysis / debate = very much welcomeDebbing for the sake of debbing while having nothing science based to back up said debbing = not welcome. Feelings are for the panic thread. Your feelings will be met with open arms over there. I, for one, think the LR ens look WAY better today at 500mb than they did just 3 days ago. Let’s keep the momentum going! 6 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterFire Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: It’s hard to be overly optimistic when the 540 line at 174 is no where in the US. Even Maine. It’s the op sure but that doesn’t foster much confidence. This is something I’ve been wondering about as well, not just today. It’s seemed like even with the better looks we’ve seen in previous weeks, the 540 line has stayed pretty far north. Not panicking/trying to deb but maybe someone with more knowledge could explain why that’s not a flag? Or just what it means in aggregate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 minute ago, WinterFire said: This is something I’ve been wondering about as well, not just today. It’s seemed like even with the better looks we’ve seen in previous weeks, the 540 line has stayed pretty far north. Not panicking/trying to deb but maybe someone with more knowledge could explain why that’s not a flag? Or just what it means in aggregate. In that run it’s pac air. The real cold is locked up on the other side. Some of the runs tapped some of the modified aK cold but that run had no mechanism to deliver it south so it was zonal dog poop. That is my unofficial explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Sunday night, strong LP is over S. Carolina dumping rain. No 50/50................ Source of cold air way back over North Dakota............................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 GEFS continues to look good for Christmas week. now we have BN heights beforehand as well as AN heights poking towards Greenland 17 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 46 minutes ago, stormy said: Sunday night, strong LP is over S. Carolina dumping rain. No 50/50................ Source of cold air way back over North Dakota............................ Are you actually tracking this? I mean its neat to look at and it is cool to get a real deal southern stream system to move through.. but this has been a rain storm ever since it showed up on the models like 7 days ago. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 14 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said: Are you actually tracking this? I mean its neat to look at and it is cool to get a real deal southern stream system to move through.. but this has been a rain storm ever since it showed up on the models like 7 days ago. There’s like a whole other thread for this and stuff 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Improvements in the Atlantic on the EPS last 3 runs 8 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Improvements in the Atlantic on the EPS last 3 runs ^At the end of the 0z EPS run you can see the lower heights in the 50-50 region. Looks like there will be at least 2 storms tracking NE across the area the last week of the month, and even if they are just rainstorms here, as those mature lows track NE they end up contributing to building heights into the NAO domain. This process can be clearly seen on the 6z GFS. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Improvements in the Atlantic on the EPS last 3 runs It appears as though the trough in the GOA moves west as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 22 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: It appears as though the trough in the GOA moves west as well. There have been incremental improvements there on the means over the last several runs, more so on the EPS and GEPS. That allows heights to build northward over AK. (-EPO). With hints of improvement in the NA towards D15, perhaps we are starting to see the beginnings of the overall favorable h5 looks the extended products have been advertising. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 This is the surface that goes with the h5 panel I posted above. That's a hell of nice a look up top with a strong wave tracking eastward. 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: This is the surface that goes with the h5 panel I posted above. That's a hell of nice a look up top with a strong wave tracking eastward. I wanted to see the next 24 hours after the 6z ended. We were ready to ring in 2024 with a bang. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Just now, nj2va said: I wanted to see the next 24 hours after the 6z ended. We were ready to ring in 2024 with a bang. If the weeklies/extended products have the right idea, we should see some classic setups like that moving forward. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: This is the surface that goes with the h5 panel I posted above. That's a hell of nice a look up top with a strong wave tracking eastward. Ah, its the @40/70 Benchmark Mid Atlantic storm set-up. Two bad its two weeks out, however, moving in the right direction for sure. We shall be tracking in early 2024 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 11 hours ago, MDScienceTeacher said: Are you actually tracking this? I mean its neat to look at and it is cool to get a real deal southern stream system to move through.. but this has been a rain storm ever since it showed up on the models like 7 days ago. I am tracking a likely rainstorm but also watching for any hint of something else like last Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 the evolution for the end of the month is pretty similar to the thoughts of myself, @psuhoffman and @CAPE. at first, the airmass is marginal for any larger storm after Christmas, and we get a rainstorm out of a pretty well-tracking system: however, that system then leads to wave breaking towards Greenland and the development of an in-situ -NAO. there is also retrogression of the AK trough, pumping the +PNA as a S/W amps: of course, these are OP runs at range and not really meant to be taken seriously. however, this is a reasonable pattern progression that shows how we go from an all out torch to one where we can actually see something of note 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 the raising of Greenland heights over the last few ENS runs could really be a game changer. hopefully that’s legit and is a function of models feeling the weak SPV somewhat 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the evolution for the end of the month is pretty similar to the thoughts of myself, @psuhoffman and @CAPE. at first, the airmass is marginal for any larger storm after Christmas, and we get a rainstorm out of a pretty well-tracking system: however, that system then leads to wave breaking towards Greenland and the development of an in-situ -NAO. there is also retrogression of the AK trough, pumping the +PNA as a S/W amps: of course, these are OP runs at range and not really meant to be taken seriously. however, this is a reasonable pattern progression that shows how we go from an all out torch to one where we can actually see something of note Yup, I don’t really care that it’s an OP at range. It shows the progression that completely makes sense based on Ens and pattern evolvement. I also love the 50/50 low on the OP. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Still seeing consistent indications on the ens means for a coastal storm in the 27-29th window. Last 2 runs of the GEFS have a pretty decent signal for frozen in the MA, esp inland with temps expected to be marginal. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 There is an indication of a following wave on the mean (similar to the 6z GFS op), and given the improving look up top there might be some colder air to work with for early January. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 43 minutes ago, CAPE said: There is an indication of a following wave on the mean (similar to the 6z GFS op), and given the improving look up top there might be some colder air to work with for early January. like seeing the AK heights recover too. that’s big. we want to see more of these HL changes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 hour ago, CAPE said: This is the surface that goes with the h5 panel I posted above. That's a hell of nice a look up top with a strong wave tracking eastward. I know that's an op at range but daayum! And as @brooklynwx99 mentioned, sure it's an op at 384-h, but it does show a reasonable/possible progression and it fits in with what the ensembles have been showing lately for that time. Better than seeing crap on the longer range ensembles with an ops showing some unicorn storm that is clearly not consistent with the flow and pattern. Oh, and is that a BANANA high, dare I say?? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 WB latest GEFS for first week of January everything still looks on track for a transition to a favorable pattern as we head into January. Nice to see that we ARE progressing into a more favorable pattern by the end of '23 as modeling/forecasters/ subject matter experts in this forum have predicted since at least Thanksgiving. Will it deliver big snow as we enter the heart of winter/ peak snow climo?! Hope so!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 There is still good general agreement between the 3 major global 0z ensemble runs for the end of the month pattern evolution. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 The 0z EPS also has cold enough air in place for this region by New Year’s Eve. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 MJO progression supports colder temps as we enter 2024. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 gotta like where we’re heading 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: gotta like where we’re heading Dunno…worried about lack of snowcover in New Mexico. Southwesterly flow is going to be dangerously warm. Hopefully we can get a small event in early February. 2 28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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