coolio Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: Flood watch east of Frederick county MD.... Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford- Spotsylvania-King George-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Including the cities of Greenbelt, Germantown, Bethesda, Sterling, Lexington Park, Annapolis, Laurel, Arlington, Fredericksburg, Cockeysville, Eldersburg, Gaithersburg, Herndon, Huntingtown, Manassas, Dale City, Leesburg, Severna Park, Falmouth, North Beach, Franconia, Elkton, Ellicott City, Arnold, Camp Springs, Falls Church, Dahlgren, Montclair, Reston, Damascus, Ashburn, Washington, Alexandria, Lake Ridge, College Park, Glen Burnie, St. Charles, Jarrettsville, Clinton, Chantilly, Silver Spring, California, Odenton, Westminster, Reisterstown, Dunkirk, Prince Frederick, Chesapeake Beach, Lusby, Severn, South Gate, Rockville, Bowie, Aberdeen, Centreville, Haymarket, Woodbridge, Annandale, Columbia, Lisbon, McLean, Suitland-Silver Hill, Waldorf, and Baltimore 132 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2023 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of DC, including the following , District of Columbia, Maryland, including the following areas, Anne Arundel, Calvert, Carroll, Cecil, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Charles, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Northwest Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges, Southeast Harford, Southern Baltimore and St. Marys, and Virginia, including the following areas, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, King George, Northwest Prince William, Spotsylvania and Stafford. * WHEN...From Sunday evening through early Monday morning * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Storm drains and ditches may become clogged with debris. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - One to three inches of rain are mostly likely Sunday evening through early Monday morning. This amount of rain could cause flooding of small streams, creeks and urban areas. Localized amounts up to four inches are possible along and east of I-95. Early Monday morning is 1am to 3am, ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Wet 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 The avocado from Mexico bowl game in Orlando looks fun right now. A little preview of what coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 I'm on my way to FL but am stopped for the night in South Carolina along I-95. I'm hoping that the bulk of the rain will be out of my way by about noon, since I have another five hours to drive. Would not want to be on the road when the worst of the blob is overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Just flew in to West Palm Beach. It was one of the most turbulent descents that I have ever experienced and I fly about 25 times a year. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 17, 2023 Author Share Posted December 17, 2023 WB 0Z 3K NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Only the NAM is trying to bring some of those 925mb winds down to the surface. Given the water temperatures off the coast and the easterly flow, I'm not sure how successful those winds are going to mix down. Real knife edge though, as if it doesn't mix it's 30G40 but it does you get 40G60+.. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 6 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z 3K NAM I know you guys want snow but man I am frackin' JEALOUS! All that rain! 5.5 inches on the Eastern Shore! I'd give the first 100,000 I make from email marketing to charity for half of that rain! But its no use. East Coast gets the rain, Tex gets sunshine lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Too bad we're in spring mode here. This would've been a best of a storm if it were snow. Probably a legit Miller A blizzard. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 1 hour ago, bigtenfan said: Just flew in to West Palm Beach. It was one of the most turbulent descents that I have ever experienced and I fly about 25 times a year. Florida is just getting demolished, by multiple weather modes. That storm is kind of like in beast mode. That's a rainstorm of several lifetimes, if you enjoy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 So is this more of a subtropical storm or a Miller A? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Worth noting that the two CAMs that are run to 60 hours (NAM Nest and HiResWindow FV3) both show a burst of snow showers very early Tuesday for those of us on the east side of the Potomac. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 1 hour ago, peribonca said: So is this more of a subtropical storm or a Miller A? March 1993 look to it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 3 hours ago, bigtenfan said: Just flew in to West Palm Beach. It was one of the most turbulent descents that I have ever experienced and I fly about 25 times a year. yeah i follow Jeff Beradelli who is now a met in Tampa, and he's been posting some pretty nasty radar images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 12 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: March 1993 look to it this is a triple phaser right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 51 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: March 1993 look to it Radar is unbelievable. Been watching it develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 14 hours ago, bigtenfan said: Just flew in to West Palm Beach. It was one of the most turbulent descents that I have ever experienced and I fly about 25 times a year. UGGHHH, sorry. My oldest son is in ATL tonight, flying between there and DCA tomorrow mid afternoon. Begged him to change his flight because of my suspicions for tomorrow, based on your report this evening. Mr. "I CAN HANDLE IT, DAD" was having no part of it, though. Sun AM Update: I talked my son into changing his flight to Mon AM, he's seen some of the radar and storm coverage from FL last night and this morning, and I shared this post with him. Thx for the report, @bigtenfan...you helped me put his travel decision over the edge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Per latest AFD, 3-4 inches of rain now expected along I 95 Corridor. System is strengthening. That radar is compulsive watching lol. I have been glued to it all night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 17, 2023 Author Share Posted December 17, 2023 NWS Sterling: I like these graphics. They should incorporate into their bulletins (watches and warnings) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 17, 2023 Author Share Posted December 17, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Morning AFD from Mount Holly- As the potent upper-level trough arrives and drives strong low pressure across our area, an intense east to southeast 925 mb jet of 50-80 knots is forecast to lift northward. The strongest part of this low-level jet is across the coastal plain on eastward later this evening into the pre-dawn hours of Monday. It is during this time when the heaviest rain will fall, as precipitable water values rapidly increase to near 1.5 inches across the region. The high precipitable water and ample lift will result in a period of heavy rain, which looks to occur from about late this evening to the early morning hours of Monday. For more details on the flooding potential, see the hydrology section below. As the above intense low-level jet tracks northward later tonight and early Monday morning, the model forecast soundings particularly across Delmarva and then southern to central New Jersey show increasing elevated instability. The NAM is highest with about 500 J/kg. The profiles are moist therefore the overall instability should be on the weak side, however there will be a period of time where the low-level shear is rather impressive. Since buoyancy should be somewhat limited and rooted above the surface, severe thunderstorms are not expected at this time. Something to keep an eye on though based on the track of the surface low, and for now did add in a thunder chance late tonight and early Monday morning across the above mentioned areas. The winds will increase dramatically tonight especially closer to the coast. There will be a robust low-level wind field and although the strong warm air advection over and off the cooler ocean waters tends to create a more stable boundary layer, the guidance continues to show 3 hour pressure falls of around 10 mb as the strong surface low arrives overnight. This can compensate for any stable marine influence and result in at least some of the stronger winds from aloft to reach the surface. The model forecast soundings show strong winds right near the surface during its peak later tonight into early Monday morning and this occurs as the boundary layer warms some. Given the latest forecast, no changes were made to the Wind Advisory for our New Jersey coastal zones and also Sussex County, Delaware. Peak wind gusts, as of now, remain forecast to be up to 50 mph. The thinking remains that not enough mixing occurs to bring the stronger winds (60-70 mph gusts) down to the surface, however there could be a small window of opportunity along the coast just ahead of the surface low where a few gusts are closer to 60 mph. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Got some light fog this morning. It’s nice to see another healthy QPF system . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 9 hours ago, pazzo83 said: this is a triple phaser right? Found a nice site on phasing storms (although I'm sure it's been posted before): https://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Phasing_Storms.html 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 HRRR has precip arriving between 1p and 2p. And brings in waves of very heavy rain later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Visibility under 1/4mi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 I sure hope we can still complain about this terrible drought after the storm 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 I know we all wish this was snow but I am pretty happy for the rainfall amounts from that last storm and now this one looking like a good 2-3" or more to put another dent in these departures. I feel like even without ideal set-ups, getting regular storms like this we are going to hit on one or two of them for some good snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 HRRR gives a dusting to many on the backside of the storm. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 17, 2023 Author Share Posted December 17, 2023 WB 12Z 3K NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Anyone have a favorite radar showing larger picture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now