MJO812 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: That is a beast on radar/vapor. I wouldn't be surprised if this was the rare occasion where impacts are worse than forecast. Thunderstorms down south Legit big storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 All things pointing to 2-4” here in central and northern nj. Winds could gust past 40. Should be a nice little storm. Wish it was white and not wet but provides something interesting to track on a Sunday afternoon and should make some of the games more fun to watch 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 1 minute ago, BoulderWX said: All things pointing to 2-4” here in central and northern nj. Winds could gust past 40. Should be a nice little storm. Wish it was white and not wet but provides something interesting to track on a Sunday afternoon and should make some of the games more fun to watch And for once there is a storm and no game at metlife 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 As opposed to last time this looks like more rain west of the city and more wind east of the city. Correct? Worried about the winds here on Long Island. Last time we had 60mph gusts had no power for days. Thinking of wheeling the generator out. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 17, 2023 Author Share Posted December 17, 2023 Just want to pass this on: There is no doubt in my mind about moderate to major impact for virtually all our area Monday, with power outages and moderate to major flooding of some streams lingering into Wednesday. 90-100 knots of 850MB wind over NYC-LI se New England for 3-6 hours tomorrow morning has to cause a fair amount of power outages (80 knots at 850MB in WAA is my trigger). Additionally, if your sump needs electric, better think about safe options. Safely: your gutters that might be leaf clogged, might be good to clear the dgutters-downspout ingest area now... again you are your own best safety. Can't risk a falling off a ladder or roof. The Passaic and Ct River are ensemble based (NAEFS and GEFS) qpf forecast to go into moderate or major flood stage Tue-Wed at couple of locations and many streams seem destined to go at least minor, providing the reality of 3" is realized. That is going to mean problems for those of you near these, detours etc. Again: this only occurs if 3+" falls in the basin. I continue to think spotty 5" in 18 hours by Noonish tomorrow. Follow hydro briefings from the various NWS offices and post here if you wish. My main concern is the SPC HREF has been lagging on this 3+" amount... I'd like to see this 12z run beef up to at least 3" basin. Now is the time to getable preparations done, before nightfall and before rain-drizzle becomes widespread with the damage developing toward dawn Monday. I'll be up monitoring wind reports early tomorrow and as best I can rainfall reports. Finally: the snow for Tuesday... in and out on the various models but don't count it out and early in the day. 12z/17 NAM and HRRR still have it. The 00z EC did, but lost it at 06z. Interim, especially 18z GFS cycle are not recently deemed as reliable compared to other cycles. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 17, 2023 Author Share Posted December 17, 2023 3 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: As opposed to last time this looks like more rain west of the city and more wind east of the city. Correct? Worried about the winds here on Long Island. Last time we had 60mph gusts had no power for days. Thinking of wheeling the generator out. . Prep it and have gas on safe standby to repower if you need it ,and of course, have it ventilated. No promises on specific locations but this seems to be a useful generator storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Prep it and have gas on safe standby to repower if you need it ,and of course, have it ventilated. No promises on specific locations but this seems to be a useful generator stormThanksAfter the tropical storm in August of 2020 we had no power for two weeks. After that I bought a champion generator and had an electrician do an outdoor hookup. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 6 minutes ago, wdrag said: Prep it and have gas on safe standby to repower if you need it ,and of course, have it ventilated. No promises on specific locations but this seems to be a useful generator storm For folks deeper inland like myself the bigger problem should be rain right? Can’t buy into any gusts over 40-45 aside from some isolated cases. Looks definitely rougher city east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 @wdrag some of the smaller rivers are already bankfull like the Croton River from it's northern end right to the Croton Reservoir and the Housatonic in Western CT. When they reach these levels it doesn't take much to send them over the banks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 23 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Thanks After the tropical storm in August of 2020 we had no power for two weeks. After that I bought a champion generator and had an electrician do an outdoor hookup. . 2 weeks?! I must have really lucked out with that storm, didn’t lose power at all. Most of Lindenhurst did have no power though but I thought it was only for a few days at most… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Nam is legit damaging winds from 1am-7am and then in the 40s after that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 17, 2023 Author Share Posted December 17, 2023 13 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: For folks deeper inland like myself the bigger problem should be rain right? Can’t buy into any gusts over 40-45 aside from some isolated cases. Looks definitely rougher city east Yes... I agree with you. Dont think I'm featuring any damaging gusts of 50+ west of the Hud River. Rainfall though... if we hadn't had what we did a week ago, I would not be as concerned but we did, and tooo many models in the 4-5.5" range including e slopes of the Catskills. Not a hurricane or worst ever, but still a pretty big storm. Not sure if anyone will notice. Originally called it a nor'easter last Wed thread. By and large this I think will be predominantly easterly winds at the surface along the coast till the 3 hours prior to occlusion-cfp passage... wind going into strongest Pres falls aligned somewhere interior NJ. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 17, 2023 Author Share Posted December 17, 2023 I have checked NWS briefing pages and I dont see anything about particular basins flooding. I am presuming the NWS is keeping quiet about particular streams to the public, due to rainfall amount uncertainty. A little disconcerting for me... but maybe I over react or am making too big a deal about river flooding??? Power issues could be significant complicating factor. If power remains, then we can comfortably deal with detours but flooded basements and potential for life threatening FF in poor drainage areas will exist Monday morning and have little doubt about many small streams in flood and several mainstems too by Noonish Monday. I expect NWS briefing pages will add more detail to hydro late today or Monday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 imo the most damage is going to come from the burst of winds on the backside of the low after we get 3-5" of rain 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 2 weeks?! I must have really lucked out with that storm, didn’t lose power at all. Most of Lindenhurst did have no power though but I thought it was only for a few days at most…Yup. My neighborhood in west babylon had no power for two weeks. My pole snapped. PSEG did nothing. An out of state crew brought us a new pole. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 17, 2023 Author Share Posted December 17, 2023 19 minutes ago, forkyfork said: imo the most damage is going to come from the burst of winds on the backside of the low after we get 3-5" of rain Might happen that way but I think unlikely... 12z/17 SPC HREF minimum gust hits 50 MPH LI tomorrow morning near 4-5A... max afternoon is 40. Don't think this will be a backside sting jet, not enough cold air wrap but the intense low pressure might make it happen. Just think too much troughing in the Ohio Valley. However, jury out and bottom line its going to be rough near sunrise and maybe more damage mid afternoon with Pres rises-caa. 19 minutes ago, forkyfork said: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 It’s already a bit breezy out there…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 24 minutes ago, forkyfork said: imo the most damage is going to come from the burst of winds on the backside of the low after we get 3-5" of rain I dread strong W or NW winds, we have 2 huge old trees behind the house that are vulnerable to the directions and the house would be in the way as they go down. I hope you're wrong but I don't think you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Puffing pretty good in SC https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41004 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 First time I can ever remember modeling being so consistent for 3-5” of rain imby. Hoping no winds over 35 for the power outage element. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 The 12/17 12z HREF: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 17, 2023 Author Share Posted December 17, 2023 39 minutes ago, Dan76 said: Puffing pretty good in SC https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41004 HRRR winds at 850 roughly 50 KT...getting gusts 40-45KT SC coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 17, 2023 Author Share Posted December 17, 2023 12 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The 12/17 12z HREF: Yes... HREF finally picking it up. Looks to me like Ensembles River response should be accurate NNJ, w Ct/W MA (Ct River etc) as well as Catskills. Those browns are 7". Always doubt til we get reality amounts, the downslope bands but we should know by sunrise tomorrow what bin the the results will be (minor, moderate or spotty major?) Definitely a concern I95 northwestward entire NYC subforum. Just have to wait. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Surprised this didn't get posted. PDS FFW for Charleston, SCFlash Flood Statement National Weather Service Charleston SC 1039 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2023 SCC015-019-029-171800- /O.CON.KCHS.FF.W.0007.000000T0000Z-231217T1800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Berkeley SC-Charleston SC-Colleton SC- 1039 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2023 ...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BERKELEY, CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTIES... At 1035 AM EST, Doppler radar indicated moderate to heavy rainfall with a few thunderstorms impacting much of the lower South Carolina coast. The risk for significant flash flooding remains high with a major high tide in progress in the Charleston Harbor. The combination of heavy rainfall and extremely high tide levels will result in an enhanced risk for for both freshwater and saltwater flooding for locations along the immediate coast, Charleston Harbor and any other major waterways such as the Cooper, Wando and Ashley Rivers. Flooding may also develop along Church Creek in West Ashley. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Heavy rain producing flash flooding. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses. Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... North Charleston, Mount Pleasant, Goose Creek, Hanahan, McClellanville, Edisto Beach, Downtown Charleston, Daniel Island, Fort Sumter, James Island, I-26/I-526 Interchange, West Ashley, Johns Island, Hollywood, Isle Of Palms, Folly Beach, Ravenel, Sullivan`s Island, Seabrook Island and Kiawah Island. Sent from my CPH2451 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 1 hour ago, Dan76 said: Puffing pretty good in SC https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41004 Those are near record seas for a non tropical event that far south. This storm is the real deal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Sustained 22-25 mph with gusts around 30 mph here at the beach since 9:30 AM (Seaside, NJ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 1 hour ago, wdrag said: HRRR winds at 850 roughly 50 KT...getting gusts 40-45KT SC coast. My daughter is in Charleston now. Streets are currently under water as far as she can see in the downtown area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 https://x.com/bryceshelton01/status/1736425027711492112?s=46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Pouring under this tiny cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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