Intensewind002 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 4 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: This seems like it would do the trick It’s not often we get a low that strong to the west of the city and that mixed with the fact I’m not really seeing much of an inversion makes me think this could be more legit than the last threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 minute ago, nycsnow said: Nam prob has some crazy winds if anyone has the wind maps 37kts for two consecutive 6hr periods on FOUS for LGA out of the SE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 3 minutes ago, uofmiami said: 37kts for two consecutive 6hr periods on FOUS for LGA out of the SE. Def think this wind threat is more legit and widespread from last weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 3-5" on the rgem 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 4 hours ago, uofmiami said: The NWS did this to us once. They said "Oh, no big deal. just a couple inches of rain." Then Manhattan got obliterated with 6 inches of rain in 2 hours. We are going to get hit hard and Upton, as per usual, is going on the conservative side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 17 minutes ago, uofmiami said: cut that by 20 mph and we still get decent wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 5 minutes ago, TriPol said: The NWS did this to us once. They said "Oh, no big deal. just a couple inches of rain." Then Manhattan got obliterated with 6 inches of rain in 2 hours. We are going to get hit hard and Upton, as per usual, is going on the conservative side. This is not Ida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 What's interesting with this NAM run (I know, NAM) is that the N stream follow up wave closes off at hr84 over WV. If that was to stay closed off and roll south of us, that's the one way we can see a possibly snowy outcome. Otherwise it would probably be just some rain/snow squalls. I'm more concerned about winds here and near the coast if the track is through central PA as most models have now and it's a strong 980mb type system. Doesn't look like really any inversion to stop the winds transferring to the ground and we'll have heavy rain bands to help as well. If the low is closer to the coast there'll be more rain but the big winds stay offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 9 minutes ago, TriPol said: The NWS did this to us once. They said "Oh, no big deal. just a couple inches of rain." Then Manhattan got obliterated with 6 inches of rain in 2 hours. We are going to get hit hard and Upton, as per usual, is going on the conservative side. If the low goes well west of us we won't see heavy training rain like we saw last time. We'll have heavy rain bands to a dryslot while the steadier rain goes near the low track. This isn't tropical and Ida also didn't track well west of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 The second wave is starting to look interesting on the NAM and RGEM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: This is not Ida Not saying it is. I'm saying Upton is consistently conservative and it comes back to haunt them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 50 + gusts on the gfs Ticked west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 24 minutes ago, jm1220 said: What's interesting with this NAM run (I know, NAM) is that the N stream follow up wave closes off at hr84 over WV. If that was to stay closed off and roll south of us, that's the one way we can see a possibly snowy outcome. Otherwise it would probably be just some rain/snow squalls. I'm more concerned about winds here and near the coast if the track is through central PA as most models have now and it's a strong 980mb type system. Doesn't look like really any inversion to stop the winds transferring to the ground and we'll have heavy rain bands to help as well. If the low is closer to the coast there'll be more rain but the big winds stay offshore. This one has juice. There was a niño storm in December 94, that split one of the big silver maples in my parents house back yard. Similar track, and winds roared, probably 70+. Lots of trees down on the south shore. I was young but one of the underrated events I remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Flash flood watch, high wind warnings everywhere according to the GFS. This is going to be a storm to remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 hour ago, TriPol said: Flash flood watch, high wind warnings everywhere according to the GFS. This is going to be a storm to remember. I’m going with sustained winds 25-35 gusts 40-50 on the coast. Yo just don’t see winds much higher than that very often outside of a tropical system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 16, 2023 Author Share Posted December 16, 2023 Well, at least the front storm will occur, albeit further west than anticipated in the Wednesday morning (13th) thread issuance. Title update to hopefully more accurately reflect the expected reality. Added damaging wind gusts-squalls to the tags and general timing/wind gust restrictions. Still lots to be determined but for those who want nothing burger <3" of rain...you probably will get that if you live LI. I think best chance of 3-5" 24 hour rainfall is along and west of the eventual path of the storm probably just inland a few miles from I95. Squalls however may change your mind about value of lead time, with power outage potential anywhere near and east of NYC including CT. Of interest to me is the max gust potential in the 4A-10A Monday time frame with squalls, but the backside westerly on eastern LI maybe just as powerful in the early afternoon. Power outages always very hard to predict, predicated on sodden ground and/or wind gusts but I suspect a fair amount of those LI/CT. Should be a bit of a difficult commute. If you have to work, recommend leave early and also plan for some airline delays Monday. Snow mixed a bit with the cold frontal rain showers Tuesday morning, only sticks I84 corridor high terrain where 0.1-1" expected. Please note late Wed-Friday (20-22) morning for LI/CT eastward... There will be another ocean storm developing Wed-Thu that could graze LI/CT with a little snow-rain. Models are temporarily going back to that, but timing is beyond the fairly powerful event coming up Monday morning and not the primary reason for this thread. Thanks for your patience with this. 618 AM/16 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 6z Nam and GFS increasing winds. Nam way overdone but models really starting to increase this threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 GFS forecast soundings only have a weak inversion in place out in Suffolk. So stronger convection could potentially tap the 950 mb winds which are around 63KT or 72 mph in gusts near the shoreline. Even the surface sustained winds are around 40KT or 47 mph. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 2 hours ago, bluewave said: GFS forecast soundings only have a weak inversion in place out in Suffolk. So stronger convection could potentially tap the 950 mb winds which are around 63KT or 72 mph in gusts near the shoreline. Even the surface sustained winds are around 40KT or 47 mph. That is similar to the event about 3 weeks ago. Jones Beach was reporting sustained of 46mph for about an hour or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 2 hours ago, nycsnow said: 6z Nam and GFS increasing winds. Nam way overdone but models really starting to increase this threat 12z Nam is coming west 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Nam is so far a bit west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 12z Nam is coming west Those winds are ferocious for the coast. Would easily be able to mix down with the strength of that LLJ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Nam winds are probably gonna be big on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 850 winds over 100knts on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 44kt on NAM FOUS at LGA at 48hrs, strong winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Significant wind risk by NWS from JFK eastward 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannoliman42 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 8 minutes ago, uofmiami said: 44kt on NAM FOUS at LGA at 48hrs, strong winds. Sustained or gusts? Edit: Disregard... saw the map. Ooof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 12z Nam has 70 plus gusts from NYC south and east 3k Nam has 60 plus for the same areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 No thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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