Roger Smith Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 The sea was angry that day, my friends. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 31 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Winds def seem to me more of a threat for more people this weekend compared to this past Sundays storm Need track to west of us and then yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: Need track to west of us and then yes That's basically a given nowadays 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the GFS doesn’t have much in the way of an inversion in the soundings so has gusts near 70 mph at the beaches. That’s a pretty incredible fetch for the east coast. That would definitely build seas over 20’. Luckily we are in low astronomical tides at the time. Otherwise there would be a serious coastal flooding and erosion threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 Euro has some light snow with the upper level low Tuesday morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 Euro is a drencher 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 41 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Euro is a drencher going to tie the kayak to the front door steps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 Euro also has impressive winds. Models all showing a decent wind threat for the area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 UGH I might have to take Santa and the deer off of the roof before they literally fly away,,,,,they can go back up Next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 the gfs/nam/ukmet camp would bring 50 kt winds inland while the euro/rgem/ggem would keep those winds confined to long island 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 15, 2023 Author Share Posted December 15, 2023 22 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the gfs/nam/ukmet camp would bring 50 kt winds inland while the euro/rgem/ggem would keep those winds confined to long island BOM is LI/CT only with 60 MPH gusts 12z Monday. Will attempt a decent consensus update tomorrow morning 8AM, but I think you all are on top of it with your posts. Regarding snow. Depends if the CLOSED LOW at 5H can' maintain south of I80 Tuesday..if so, then inverted backwards trough from near ACK sfc low, FGEN and teep moist unstable lapse rate will produce some interesting grass accum. Too early about 5H. Odds are it will open to our north... but... jury still out. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 https://x.com/nwswpc/status/1735776934024618251?s=46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 Anything under 3” is a nothing burger to me. It’s so common here now. As long as it’s not rush hour . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 14 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Anything under 3” is a nothing burger to me. It’s so common here now. As long as it’s not rush hour . It will be rush hour 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 GFS has winds 40-50+ from Jersey east on the 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 1 minute ago, nycsnow said: GFS has winds 40-50+ from Jersey east on the 18z run The wind always seems overdone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 The rain is whatever really don’t need more wind in my neck of the woods. Saturated ground and more southerly winds will do more damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 13 minutes ago, justinj said: The wind always seems overdone hard to say how much they'll mix down-last weekend's event was a bust wind wise but a few weeks ago one overperformed with no advisories for anyone and we had gusts to almost 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: hard to say how much they'll mix down-last weekend's event was a bust wind wise but a few weeks ago one overperformed with no advisories for anyone and we had gusts to almost 50 This seems like it would do the trick 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: hard to say how much they'll mix down-last weekend's event was a bust wind wise but a few weeks ago one overperformed with no advisories for anyone and we had gusts to almost 50 Not sure where you are but I had gusts to almost 50 last weekend by me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keno19 Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: hard to say how much they'll mix down-last weekend's event was a bust wind wise but a few weeks ago one overperformed with no advisories for anyone and we had gusts to almost 50 i agree i majored in atm science the whole mixing winds down is hard to predict, inversions caps etc. never bullet proof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 3 minutes ago, justinj said: Not sure where you are but I had gusts to almost 50 last weekend by me I had more wind behind the storm on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 19 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: This seems like it would do the trick Don’t do this to yourself again with the nam 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 16, 2023 Author Share Posted December 16, 2023 After reviewing guidance tomorrow morning, around 8A, I'll probably adjust one tag adding damaging wind. Sort of waiting on NWS commitment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 2 hours ago, justinj said: The wind always seems overdone Doesn’t seem like much of an inversion this time so it might be legit. But usually these are a nowcast situation. And won’t take much wind to cause tree damage because of saturated ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Euro is off the coast, not seeing a big wind threat with this outside Suffolk and NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 48 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Euro is off the coast, not seeing a big wind threat with this outside Suffolk and NE 18z looks like it goes just west of city def way west of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 0z nam is west up through central PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: 0z nam is west up through central PA Nam prob has some crazy winds if anyone has the wind maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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