LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 53 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: 60 kt gusts are now as far north as Diamond Shoals off Cape hatteras. (60 kt = 67-68 mph) Seriously impressive observations coming out of that area. If that makes it up here this is going to be a very high impact event. Seas peaked at 33’ during sandy at 44065 Ny harbor buoy. Seeing high 20’s in the Carolina’s is very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 Been kind of meh so far 1 1 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Been kind of meh so far The same thing happened with Isias. It was meh, until it went ballistic. Looking at the obs down south, we should see something similar wind wise. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Been kind of meh so far snooze fest thus far in white plains... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 9 minutes ago, vegan_edible said: snooze fest thus far in white plains... The best winds are overnight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PuraVida Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 Go to bed now, wake up 4am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PuraVida Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 60 kt gusts are now as far north as Diamond Shoals off Cape hatteras. (60 kt = 67-68 mph) HRRR has stronger 850 wind here than offshore NC which could be an indication we are going to see some 70+ mph obs . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannoliman42 Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 10 minutes ago, vegan_edible said: snooze fest thus far in white plains... Models haven't predicted the storm to start until after midnight. I think the true brunt will be felt from 1am-7am. Winds towards the back end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 Lots of lightning off the southeast coast over the Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 Yeah, definitely not waking up at 4am for rain 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 18, 2023 Author Share Posted December 18, 2023 29 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Seriously impressive observations coming out of that area. If that makes it up here this is going to be a very high impact event. Seas peaked at 33’ during sandy at 44065 Ny harbor buoy. Seeing high 20’s in the Carolina’s is very impressive. Of interest. Blend Of Models (19z version) seems to be doing well eastern NC shore at 00z... if it holds...max gusts per BOM for LI 60-65 MPH tomorrow morning. I havent recently studied the details of the modeling wind downward transfer-instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 Got some gas for the generator. Expecting to lose power here in Suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 10 hours ago, wdrag said: Just want to pass this on: There is no doubt in my mind about moderate to major impact for virtually all our area Monday, with power outages and moderate to major flooding of some streams lingering into Wednesday. 90-100 knots of 850MB wind over NYC-LI se New England for 3-6 hours tomorrow morning has to cause a fair amount of power outages (80 knots at 850MB in WAA is my trigger). Additionally, if your sump needs electric, better think about safe options. Safely: your gutters that might be leaf clogged, might be good to clear the dgutters-downspout ingest area now... again you are your own best safety. Can't risk a falling off a ladder or roof. The Passaic and Ct River are ensemble based (NAEFS and GEFS) qpf forecast to go into moderate or major flood stage Tue-Wed at couple of locations and many streams seem destined to go at least minor, providing the reality of 3" is realized. That is going to mean problems for those of you near these, detours etc. Again: this only occurs if 3+" falls in the basin. I continue to think spotty 5" in 18 hours by Noonish tomorrow. Follow hydro briefings from the various NWS offices and post here if you wish. My main concern is the SPC HREF has been lagging on this 3+" amount... I'd like to see this 12z run beef up to at least 3" basin. Now is the time to getable preparations done, before nightfall and before rain-drizzle becomes widespread with the damage developing toward dawn Monday. I'll be up monitoring wind reports early tomorrow and as best I can rainfall reports. Finally: the snow for Tuesday... in and out on the various models but don't count it out and early in the day. 12z/17 NAM and HRRR still have it. The 00z EC did, but lost it at 06z. Interim, especially 18z GFS cycle are not recently deemed as reliable compared to other cycles. I guess it depends on exactly where the systems merge. At first glance, it looks over NYC, but, it may be further east, depending on the speed? 32 minutes ago, PuraVida said: Go to bed now, wake up 4am . Possible Dry Slotting around 4 AM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 A lot of the heavy precip seen further west. Has it trended further west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 Just now, steve392 said: A lot of the heavy precip seen further west. Has it trended further west? Ah, yes. The obligatory "It's further north, east, south, west than originally modeled" post. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 A lot of the heavy precip seen further west. Has it trended further west? Thought same things. Trends look west . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Thought same things. Trends look west . Hrrr sends the low up the Delaware river 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Seriously impressive observations coming out of that area. If that makes it up here this is going to be a very high impact event. Seas peaked at 33’ during sandy at 44065 Ny harbor buoy. Seeing high 20’s in the Carolina’s is very impressive. Seas peaked well offshore in the mid 40’s with the passage of Sandy. I checked a number of the offshore buoys situated to the north and northeast of Cape Hatteras earlier and most of them were not reporting off shore wind data. These are the buoys situated off of the mid Atlantic coast. This is concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 Further west is bad for the island. Not good news if true. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 3 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Thought same things. Trends look west . I am seeing that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 Radar has the big rain north of DC in to CPA does seem west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 2 minutes ago, psv88 said: Further west is bad for the island. Not good news if true. Maybe a trade off between less rain and stronger winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 Just now, Rmine1 said: Maybe a trade off between less rain and stronger winds? SLP is projected to occlude by the models as it reaches our latitude. This is why the strongest winds are projected to remain off shore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 Just now, Tatamy said: SLP is projected to occlude by the models as it reaches our latitude. This is why the strongest winds are projected to remain off shore. Sure but coastal Jersey LI and coastal New England still get crazy winds on most models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 7 minutes ago, Rmine1 said: Maybe a trade off between less rain and stronger winds? Yea I’ll take the rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 It looks like the worst of the wind will be very early Monday morning into midmorning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 1 minute ago, psv88 said: Yea I’ll take the rain. 100% agree. Even if the strongest winds verify on the SS, the worst impacts(outside the beaches) might be in your nape of the neck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 10 minutes ago, psv88 said: Yea I’ll take the rain. I think we verify on the lower end of the forecast rain totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 7 minutes ago, Rmine1 said: 100% agree. Even if the strongest winds verify on the SS, the worst impacts(outside the beaches) might be in your nape of the neck Yea I’m a bit worried. House is surrounded by big trees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 Just now, psv88 said: Yea I’m a bit worried. House is surrounded by big trees Same here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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