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December 10-11 Storm Event


Go Kart Mozart
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12 minutes ago, dryslot said:

18z HRRR a few more tics east of 12z, Puts NW Maine now firmly in the game with a sharp cutoff east of there.

floop-hrrr-2023121018.sn10_acc-imp.us_ne.gif

Means Portland area of Maine, totally out of any action outside of rain now. Wind all moved far downeast

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Impressive band. Just heard some more thunder. 

Have increased isolated thunder wording in terms of coverage with this update as embedded convective elements have ticked up with radar and even a lightning strike detected in Queens. A secondary warm front is currently lifting through which has aided in lift in the past couple of hours. Otherwise forecast remains on track.

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Several pieces of guidance show the
possibility of the low stalling, or even backbuilding a bit,
overnight, which would prolong the duration of heavy precip.

The overall QPF forecast remains consistent with the previous shift,
with a maximum of 4-6", perhaps locally higher, forecast over east
central Connecticut and central Massachusetts. HREF ensemble
consistency has been rather remarkable over the last few runs, with
little to no wobble in the anticipated axis of heaviest
precipitation and consistency in the 24 hour LPMM (best reasonable
guess for maximum precip potential) showing a widespread swath of 5-
7" across the aforementioned region. While it may seem
insignificant, both the CMC and GEFS ensembles show bullseyes of
10-30% probabilities of 4" of QPF or greater over
Tolland/Windham County Connecticut; which is marked as a
considerable signal for significant precip in terms of global
guidance. Thus, with all things above considered, collaborated
with WPC and our neighboring WFOs to upgrade the Excessive
Rainfall Outlook to MODERATE, to highlight the increased
potential for flash flooding. 
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8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:
Several pieces of guidance show the
possibility of the low stalling, or even backbuilding a bit,
overnight, which would prolong the duration of heavy precip.

The overall QPF forecast remains consistent with the previous shift,
with a maximum of 4-6", perhaps locally higher, forecast over east
central Connecticut and central Massachusetts. HREF ensemble
consistency has been rather remarkable over the last few runs, with
little to no wobble in the anticipated axis of heaviest
precipitation and consistency in the 24 hour LPMM (best reasonable
guess for maximum precip potential) showing a widespread swath of 5-
7" across the aforementioned region. While it may seem
insignificant, both the CMC and GEFS ensembles show bullseyes of
10-30% probabilities of 4" of QPF or greater over
Tolland/Windham County Connecticut; which is marked as a
considerable signal for significant precip in terms of global
guidance. Thus, with all things above considered, collaborated
with WPC and our neighboring WFOs to upgrade the Excessive
Rainfall Outlook to MODERATE, to highlight the increased
potential for flash flooding. 

Radar shows 84 corridor near you and just to my NW the heaviest; assume this where it sets up? .47” here so far

 

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