December 10-11 Storm Event

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The problem they don’t seem to understand or comprehend is if this in fact tracked to our west they’d likely be sitting in the dark naked on cold metal folding chairs. When we were discussing this last week, the initial track was west and damaging. As we got closer track shifted east which took the big wind out east . I don’t see why they don’t understand this . 

Got a good laugh…I like the metal folding chairs naked line. 
 

But this is just what we’re talking about…we knew as we closed in(especially the last 24-36 hrs) that the threat for wind would diminish…because most times that happens inland.  Now of course it’s not a 100% certainty, but it’s very high 90’s percentiles easily. Those wind maps are almost always way inflated, and never verify.  If we’re talking tropical systems, then that’s a different animal obviously.  But these are more often than not duds regarding wind for most areas in SNE.  The rain was prolific..but mostly forgettable for the most part. 
 

I know you wanted something exciting, I think we all did obviously, but this wasn’t it pal.  But got a laugh out of your post..good one. 

[SouthCoastMA]

6z gfs throwing us a christmas eve bone

most likely we'll just get boned

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Ginxy gauge going a little wild?

 

That's since midnight 

[powderfreak]

About 3” of paste of like 6:1 snow down in the valley.

Looks nice outside considering this was going to be a hot multi-day cutter last week.

Moving east wasn’t the worst thing, at least it didn’t go back west and torch for another 18 hours.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Saw a couple of 70 kt wind reports... one from Blue Hill, one from outer Cape?

As we figured…a few select spots..but that’s the extent. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

6z gfs throwing us a christmas eve bone

most likely we'll just get boned

Off hour runs are always good for bones. 

[Ginx snewx]

20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Lots of 4s. Sometimes those tippers get wild.

Stratus silky boy. Final 5.54 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

That's since midnight 

I know, it was high yesterday too. We watch for good obs. I assume that was your tipper reporting.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I know, it was high yesterday too. We watch for good obs. I assume that was your tipper reporting.

Stratus silky boy

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Stratus silky boy

On Wundermap? That's tied to your Davis or whatever you have.  

[Modfan2]

1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

There's also a modeling cliff around 24 hours. You have guidance like the HRRR, RAP, ARW, etc that don't go much beyond that. So issuing warnings/advisories before you get to those modeling ranges can leave you wondering what happened when the damming is all of a sudden stronger than the GFS or Euro was saying.

Glad you brought this up; wonder if we can track by storms which models were accurate; sort of like fantasy football @weatherwiz but different l.?

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

On Wundermap? That's tied to your Davis or whatever you have.  

No my Cocorahs report is manual entered after Stratus emptied. I sat under a stationary 40 dbz for an hour. Just crushed with great wind as well. 

[Logan11]

25 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

34.3F  Flipping to snow as it looks to be coming to an end.  Good call in that.  Highest wind gust during storm was 11mph but expected that.  Highest temp 40.2F.   50% of ground is still covered with snow except on my south open field which is less

A bit of light snow yet here but 4.5" is probably it. More like something in early spring with the big elevational component. 6.5" at 1500'+ and some 8"+ amounts over 2000 ft. Must be virtually nothing on the Mohawk-Upper Hudson Valley floor.

We had several heavy wet snowstorms here in late February and March which pushed us to 96" for last winter. I'm ready for some dry snow.

[dryslot]

RN, 39.2°F, 2.81"

[Damage In Tolland]

Flipped over to snow here as it ends 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Flipped over to snow here as it ends 

Stay safe, last snow you’ll see until MLK day.

[alex]

We didn’t flood 

[mreaves]

Internet out here. Three Mondays in a row this has happened. 

[greenmtnwx]

42 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

No my Cocorahs report is manual entered after Stratus emptied. I sat under a stationary 40 dbz for an hour. Just crushed with great wind as well. 

Where's that white chrsitmas you promised. Tongue planted in cheek.

[OceanStWx]

Another thing to note about winds, it's not just that things shifted east but also that the low is currently around 993 mb. Quite a bit weaker than models 48 hours ago, and the trend has been for a less amplified system. So it's farther east and weaker (meaning the 925 jet is likely less than the 90-95 kt). 

[DavisStraight]

It does look colder the days leading up to Christmas, maybe we get lucky.

[powderfreak]

I can’t remember so many beautiful paste events.  One a week now for three weeks.

[tamarack]

Had 2.02" thru 7 this morning with some moderate RA since, and temp never got past mid-30s.  Nearly all the snow washed off the trees after nearly a week of winter wonderland, but the 2' icicle is still hanging from the end of the gutter.  Saw some 50+ gusts reported from BHB and a 53kt gust out on Mt. Desert Rock.

[Damage In Tolland]

3.59” final here . Lots of water running out of hillsides. An amazingly rainy year this has been with over 64” . Still a shot to pass 2021 by year end which I never thought I’d see again. 

[weatherwiz]

I'm sure this isn't totally final, but as promised. 

Very good at determining which areas will see snow and picking up at some of the local elevational changes (which isn't anything special really) but outside of that...garbage. 

[Ginx snewx]

25 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

Where's that white chrsitmas you promised. Tongue planted in cheek.

It's Dec 11th. Patience Grasshoppers 

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

Ending with a few mood flakes as that last band pushes through. Here's a before and after shot of the Warner river in the backyard. First one taken yesterday afternoon and the second this morning. Roaring pretty good from the house.

[powderfreak]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm sure this isn't totally final, but as promised. 

Very good at determining which areas will see snow and picking up at some of the local elevational changes (which isn't anything special really) but outside of that...garbage. 

Ratios 6:1 not 10:1.  What would be great is if you could use a sliding scale on the snow maps.  They had the idea, you just need to know how to use them.

Loved the positive depth increase maps in this.  

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ratios 6:1 not 10:1.  What would be great is if you could use a sliding scale on the snow maps.  They had the idea, you just need to know how to use them.

Loved the positive depth increase maps in this.  

I agree, if you could use a sliding scale on the maps that would increase their value. This is something you can do on bufkit, but the downside of this is you're only looking at a point location and if you're going to look at many locations, it becomes very time consuming. 

Positive depth maps are certainly paint a much more realistic picture. 

You're exactly right, you need to know how to use them. This is what irks me about them because they are so irresponsibly tossed around on social media (and this includes some meteorologists). People just focus on the output numbers and the hype train is off the charts. I think they are a detriment to the field of forecasting in that they hurt more than they help. They just lead to lazy forecasting. It's just run to the snow maps, see what they show, and then make a snowfall forecast based on that. 

[dryslot]

2.84", Temps hovered right around 39°F at my casa, East and weaker track with 5-10 mph winds did not allow us to mix out, Snowpack is gone except for some piles.