A decent storm will develop through the northeast USA Sunday Dec 10, 2023, rapidly deepening Monday morning in its departure. Worst expected 5P Sunday-5A Monday.

[Allsnow]

On 12/9/2023 at 8:44 AM, Allsnow said:

Nam is probably to wet…

 

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Are you shocked? The nam is always silly with qpf that far out 

Usually it backs off immediately.  This time it waited until right before. It could still go back to 3" this afternoon

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Usually it backs off immediately.  This time it waited until right before. It could still go back to 3" this afternoon

It’s a awful model that people seem to hug when it shows a solution they like outside 24 hours 

[forkyfork]

the nssl wrf forecast looks reasonable to me

[North and West]

the nssl wrf forecast looks reasonable to me

What does NSSL WRF stand for? TIA!


.

[Tatamy]

28 minutes ago, North and West said:

What does NSSL WRF stand for? TIA!


.

National Severe Storms Laboratory Weather Research and Forecast Model.  You can google additional information about it including forecast parameters used.

[lee59]

Getting rain with thunder here.

[WestBabylonWeather]

Could care less about 3” of rain. Been there. Done that.

I’m hoping this wind forecast busts low


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[forkyfork]

3 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Could care less about 3” of rain. Been there. Done that.

I’m hoping this wind forecast busts low


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your inflatable santa will be ok

[WestBabylonWeather]

your inflatable santa will be ok

lol


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[psv88]

25 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Could care less about 3” of rain. Been there. Done that.

I’m hoping this wind forecast busts low


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Even 45 mph winds can bring down trees with fully saturated ground. Currently pouring and the soil is already mud. Going to be a long 24 hours 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Even 45 mph winds can bring down trees with fully saturated ground. Currently pouring and the soil is already mud. Going to be a long 24 hours 

Very displeased with this wind forecast.


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[lee59]

The heavier rain seems to be a little earlier than what I expected. On and off heavier showers.

[guinness77]

Rain that is falling (and we’ve had more already than I would have expected) is very tropical in nature. 

[uofmiami]

5 minutes ago, guinness77 said:

Rain that is falling (and we’ve had more already than I would have expected) is very tropical in nature. 

2.4 PWAT on the 12z sounding at OKX. 
 

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Has trended to a general rain storm for areas west of the city. Maybe 1.5"

The nam went from 3.5 to 2.5 to 1.5 in 3 runs

Most models have 2"+ city and east, how much more depends on how long and where training happens. I'd rather have the heavy rain vs 60+ mph wind to knock the power out east of the low, so there's that. 

[donsutherland1]

LGA: Thunderstorm 

[BoulderWX]

Went from expecting 3” and strong winds which would at least have been exciting to now about an inch and light winds. Fun winter and not even talking about the lack of snow 

[nycwinter]

5 hours ago, Snowlover11 said:

delayed? the brunt of it isn’t coming till 4-5pm tonight.

rain probably moves in between 11am-1pm

yesterday they were saying rain by morning 7 or 8 am did not happen so i managed to not only go to the supermarket but manage to do a 2 mile walk without rain..

[Snowlover11]

just got down to AC and i just got in as the heavy rain started.

[donsutherland1]

This morning's HREF:

[MANDA]

Based on latest radar trends this is not going to produce anything more than 1" for NW NJ.  Best rains aimed up along and especially east of I95.  Long Island looks to do best with heaviest totals as models have been generally suggesting.

[Stormlover74]

[psv88]

Downpours here. Nobody does heavy December rains quite like Long Island…

[psv88]

Some areas of western Suffolk over an inch of rain already. 

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Some areas of western Suffolk over an inch of rain already. 

Yep, getting soaked IMBY. Some of us will probably get to 4” as we’re just getting started with it. 

[psv88]

18 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yep, getting soaked IMBY. Some of us will probably get to 4” as we’re just getting started with it. 

Yea lots of flooding around town already. Impressive system 

[lee59]

Up to .56 of rain here, still not much wind gusting to 16mph

[gravitylover]

1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

yesterday they were saying rain by morning 7 or 8 am did not happen so i managed to not only go to the supermarket but manage to do a 2 mile walk without rain..

Maybe there. I was supposed to be mostly dry until lunchtime but it was soggy at 7 and drizzling by 8. 

 

This fog could go away. Hoping for no wind. Expecting 3-4" of rain. 

[Intensewind002]

I’m up to about .80” in Lindenhurst, and winds picking up a little, gusting probably ~30 mph now.