A decent storm will develop through the northeast USA Sunday Dec 10, 2023, rapidly deepening Monday morning in its departure. Worst expected 5P Sunday-5A Monday.

[Allsnow]

The flip to snow by dca and bwi looks to have some legitimacy. But would just be mood flakes in the city’s 

[vegan_edible]

18z gfs claiming im getting 4.2” here in wp monday
when pigs fly

[Brian5671]

52 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It’s probably too wet behind the front when we are cold enough to snow. It will sober up on the qpf tomorrow morning 

Some may seek flakes in the air but yeah not accumulating after 2 days of 60+ and water logged ground with temps in the mid 30's.  But still impressive after this warmth.  Today felt like April.

[wdrag]

Looking at just about everything I can...I would now follow the HRRR, RGEM, 12KM NAM closely, realizing the RGEM and HRRR can run a degree or two warm, affecting ptype and snowdepth.  Also HRRR wind gusts can be 5 MPH too strong.  Right now they are less than the EC which has 50-60 E LI on the 18z/9 cycle.

I'd keep the door open for grass snow acc near I95 including metro NYC. How much on pavement and snow boards is questionable. Not saying this will happen but I think it likely there is at least a mix of sleet-snow for an hour or two 8A-Noon Monday.  

 

Will check back at 645A Sunday. Have a good night. 

 

[RU848789]

I understand it's unlikely, but at some point, with both the NAM and GFS showing several inches of snow down through the 95 corridor, (except for the perfect snowhole over NYC metro on the GFS) one has to wonder if there's some chance they're on to something and maybe we could get some white stuff.  Stranger things have happened...

 

[wishcast_hater]

Sign me up


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[wilsonvoid1]

OZ runs will be telling?


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[wilsonvoid1]

7am we snow in the city Monday morning?


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[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, wilsonvoid1 said:

7am we snow in the city Monday morning?


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Long chance

[Roger Smith]

Probably a case of non-accumulating flurries 0300-0900h 11th (mon) in metro NYC, to 1-3" parts of NJ, with the rapid temp fall, black ice conditions for morning commute in outlying parts of n NJ, hudson valley and w CT. I would be more concerned about ice than snow for road safety issues. 

[MJO812]

Nice snow event for catskills

[wilsonvoid1]

Nice snow event for catskills

true. Nam is west which is obviously worse for everybody!


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[Stormlover74]

31 minutes ago, wilsonvoid1 said:

7am we snow in the city Monday morning?


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Nam got a bit colder but shuts off the precip sooner

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, wilsonvoid1 said:

true. Nam is west which is obviously worse for everybody!


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Not everybody. Eastern PA down to VA does well

[wilsonvoid1]

Not everybody. Eastern PA down to VA does well

yeah but that's not our forum we want snow for us not them, let's be real here. I am officially back for winter and I may even have a snow map ready for you fine people but if we trend to rain only, i'm not doing a snowmap for the other forum.


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[Dark Star]

2 hours ago, wilsonvoid1 said:

7am we snow in the city Monday morning?


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Always a possibility, but if I had a dollar for everytime models showed snow on the backside of a system, well, I would have money...

[ForestHillWx]

Interestingly I live closer to PA, than NYC as the crow flys.

I’m not expecting accumulation, but to see more than a trace would be a win in this early winter season. 

[wdrag]

No changes to add. Enjoy the storm.

Suggest for observations add only rainfall above 2", wind gusts 45 MPH or higher, power outages, downed tree limbs, unusual flooding, and any snow-sleet accumulations  

A good multi faceted storm and travel will be impacted. Brunt still 5P-5A.  

I may not be posting between 945A-7P. 

 

[nycwinter]

rain has been delayed i expected rain first thing this morning

[the_other_guy]

14 hours ago, vegan_edible said:

18z gfs claiming im getting 4.2” here in wp monday
when pigs fly

Doesnt a pig fly by right after that in the next scene?  4.2 seems high

[jayyy]

Always a possibility, but if I had a dollar for everytime models showed snow on the backside of a system, well, I would have money...

True. However.. most of our fails when it comes to cold chasing precip occur during pure FROPA setups. Models have a surface low developing along the coast, throwing precip back NW due to a nicely timed neg tilt of the trough. That’s what gets it done as far as seeing some snow on the backside.

Still a tall order, no doubt, but chances are better to at least see some snow with this type of setup versus a typical frontal passage where 90+% of precip falls along the front.

[Snowlover11]

29 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

rain has been delayed i expected rain first thing this morning

delayed? the brunt of it isn’t coming till 4-5pm tonight.

rain probably moves in between 11am-1pm

[ILoveWinter]

1 hour ago, Snowlover11 said:

delayed? the brunt of it isn’t coming till 4-5pm tonight.

rain probably moves in between 11am-1pm

looking at the radar, nothing substantial until at least early afternoon

[donsutherland1]

Last night’s HREF:

[guinness77]

Probably smart to take down any breakable decorations, unplug blowups and put smaller furniture in the garage right? It’s annoying but probably the smart move. 

[donsutherland1]

From WPC:

[Snowlover11]

11 minutes ago, guinness77 said:

Probably smart to take down any breakable decorations, unplug blowups and put smaller furniture in the garage right? It’s annoying but probably the smart move. 

definitely the safe route.

[jm1220]

Gonna be a soaker here, hopefully some snow happens NW. Could be 3"+ around the city and east, most models have some training for a few hours. And this is definitely an El Nino storm too, you can see the E Pac tropical connection. For snow it's all about when the 700 low closes off, hopefully it happens sooner so precip can linger behind the front.

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Gonna be a soaker here, hopefully some snow happens NW. Could be 3"+ around the city and east, most models have some training for a few hours. And this is definitely an El Nino storm too, you can see the E Pac tropical connection. For snow it's all about when the 700 low closes off, hopefully it happens sooner so precip can linger behind the front.

Has trended to a general rain storm for areas west of the city. Maybe 1.5"

The nam went from 3.5 to 2.5 to 1.5 in 3 runs

[Allsnow]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Has trended to a general rain storm for areas west of the city. Maybe 1.5"

The nam went from 3.5 to 2.5 to 1.5 in 3 runs

Are you shocked? The nam is always silly with qpf that far out