Terpeast Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 8 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: snow depth maps always verify the best Looks like 1-2" imby with 4-6+ along the blue ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: Yeah, that's probably closer to reality given the sfc temps. Not trying to be a downer, but I'm always reserved on anafronts 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 9, 2023 Author Share Posted December 9, 2023 Looks like Ellinwood made that map 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 I agree about the temps going in. But this sounding from my area is gorgeous. Would be a beatdown for a couple of hours at least. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 9, 2023 Author Share Posted December 9, 2023 Just now, clskinsfan said: I agree about the temps going in. But this sounding from my area is gorgeous. Would be a beatdown for a couple of hours at least. Agreed, I don’t really care about surface temps. Rates like that would be fun to watch even if its a coating of accumulation. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 I’ll be happy with 30 min of snow TV in my hood 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 18z NAM still looks nice to me 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 3k NAM spreads the wealth well East of 95 on this run 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 9, 2023 Author Share Posted December 9, 2023 3k flips 95 around 4a and snows for a few hours. 81 corridor flips just after midnight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 3k nam has 6 hours of white rain for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 9, 2023 Author Share Posted December 9, 2023 Looks fun! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 41 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Yeah, that's probably closer to reality given the sfc temps. Not trying to be a downer, but I'm always reserved on anafronts this really isnt an anafrontal event anymore, the reason why we're getting sm snow on recent runs is bc of a secondary coastal low forming and undergoing surface cyclonegenesis which throws moisture nw back into the cold sector, this isnt cold front trying to catch up to precip 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Hrrr 18z looks significantly more amplified v 12z. Nice trend. NAM looks a mess at 18z which isn’t uncommon it’s bouncy AF. Which brings me to…what is NCEPs high res short range flag ship model of choice now anyways??? They stopped updating the NAM and SREF years ago. Which was fine they’re ancient and probably outlived the usefulness of tweaking their core at this point. But they were never replaced. The HRRR isn’t any more reliable and seems mostly ignored. The ARW FV3 I don’t think ever became operational (unless I missed that) and is largely absent in any forecast discussion. The RRFS has been in development for years and still isn’t operational. Frankly in most discussions of short range Synoptics they still talk about the euro and gfs mostly. So…what exactly is the current preferred high res short range guidance? Any of the pros in this area want to chime in? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 The 18z NAM finally comes to it's senses. It was on steroids.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 9 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: this really isnt an anafrontal event anymore, the reason why we're getting sm snow on recent runs is bc of a secondary coastal snow forming and undergoing surface cyclonegenesis which throws moisture nw back into the cold sector, this isnt cold front trying to catch up to precip This. That 500 low goes negative a low forms over South Carolina 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, Huffwx said: This. That 500 low goes negative a low forms over South Carolina Yea it’s really become a trailing wave with a perfect surface mid and upper level pass. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 7 minutes ago, stormy said: The 18z NAM finally comes to it's senses. It was on steroids.. I’d be careful using the NAM to sniff out trends. First of all which one? The 3k is still amplified. 12k shat the bed. 6z the 3k did that. Both haven’t been updated in forever and jump around even worse than most high res guidance. Frankly over the last few years I’ve found I would have been better off simply ignoring the NAMs completely. Now if the other 18z guidance comes in like that…but so far all we have is the HRRR and it went the other way and is more amplified. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: NAM looks a mess at 18z which isn’t uncommon it’s bouncy AF. Looking at the vorticity and can't really understand why the output is worse, 18z appears (to me) more negatively tilted vs 12z. It also has a further south low and a larger area of snow on the backside of the front. Looks like there is almost a bit of a precip hole but not sure why that is (.5 qdf after changeover vs .7). I know its just one run but I want to understand the process better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: Looking at the vorticity and can't really understand why the output is worse, 18z appears (to me) more negatively tilted vs 12z. It also has a further south low and a larger area of snow on the backside of the front. Looks like there is almost a bit of a precip hole but not sure why that is (.5 qdf after changeover vs .7). I know its just one run but I want to understand the process better. Are we discussing the 12k or 3k? They are significantly different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Just now, psuhoffman said: Are we discussing the 12k or 3k? They are significantly different Sorry meant to specify 3k compared to its 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 RGEM is more - but still pretty bad around NW of DC bc even tho it's cold enough it's still "raining", says around <1" for NW of DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 nam 12k still looks good, 500mb wise i think they both improved, slightly more held back but same tilt and more amped 12k northern and southern jet was considerably more amped 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: Sorry meant to specify 3k compared to its 12z run. The changes on the 3k are mostly noise imo. A lot of the missing snow from 12z was from that ridiculous deform band that was putting down like 3”/hr totals. Instead of one mega band the 18z has several more transient bands. The super band was kinda an unlikely outcome but synoptically I didn’t see a huge difference. The 18z is more amplified and slower. I actually like the 18z 3k better regardless of the less impressive clown maps. That deform band isn’t something it’s going to get right anyways outside like 12 hours and otherwise absent that one thing the 18z run was better imo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: nam 12k still looks good, 500mb wise i think they both improved, slightly more held back but same tilt and more amped 12k northern and southern jet was considerably more amped 12z was more amplified than the 18z 12knam. The less impressive surface outcome was actually consistent with its upper levels. BUT it’s the NAM and the 3k and HRRR went the other way so until I see more reliable guidance trend less amplified I wouldn’t take it too seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 HRDPS looks less amplified at first glance tbh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 nevermind, the whole thing is just slower. looks held back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 HRDRPS joined the party at 12z I like purple blobs over my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’d be careful using the NAM to sniff out trends. First of all which one? The 3k is still amplified. 12k shat the bed. 6z the 3k did that. Both haven’t been updated in forever and jump around even worse than most high res guidance. Frankly over the last few years I’ve found I would have been better off simply ignoring the NAMs completely. Now if the other 18z guidance comes in like that…but so far all we have is the HRRR and it went the other way and is more amplified. I can't find any disagreement with what you say. The 12k dropped 10:1 snowfall from 7" to 2" for my area and dropped total rainfall from 3.15" to 1.63". It amps more toward the coast and shifts precip. footprint which has been a 6 month pattern. Yes, the 3k is still amplified with snow but drops rainfall for me from 2.59" to 1.11". I agree with your thoughts about a short range model with more reliability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 It’’s amazing how consistent the euro has been for 5 runs. There has been a slight trend to go more negative the last 2 runs (good) but overall the euros been a rock with all other guidance converging on it. This is one of the reasons I still find the euro useful in short range. I’ll use the high res to pick out meso features but this lends confidence that the general idea here is becoming pretty locked in. Of course this is a very marginal setup wrt Tempe so now cast issues with the exact Tempe and banding will have a huge impact. 1-2 degrees and where a meso band sets up is the difference between 1-2” of wet paste and white rain. But this consistency combined with the meso models converging towards it makes me confident the idea of a more amplified negative tilt wave is correct. So at least we are in the game. Like I said I use it as a baseline to judge everything else. BTW 1-3” of wet snow is better than 2-4” of dry snow imo. The wet snow sits on top the grass better and sticks to everything. Looks a lot nicer. Agreed. Thats what I meant about using it to see whether or not it’s holding the same general evolution in the short range. For me, it’s more about the minute details. I don’t think it does as well as some meso models when it comes to pinpointing bands, but it is definitely still a good sign when the euro holds strong. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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