AtlanticWx Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 uptick again (10:1 is 2-3" area wide) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 euro better Kuchera: 10:1: overall vort digs more and is more amped, trend towards nam in right direction 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Getting a wee bit close for the Euro, IMO. Not a huge fan of using it inside of 48 hours. Mainly just like to see if its general evolution is holding serve.Nice to see the gfs and NAM continue the sharper trend with passing runs. Give me 2” of paste after a 30 degree temp drop and I’d be happier than a pig in shit. If the storm wants to 3K NAM my backyard, by all means.. but my expectations are low for this one. Hoping I’m far enough north for the temps and east for the qpf. Whichever area strikes that balance will see a mini jack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 17 minutes ago, jayyy said: Getting a wee bit close for the Euro, IMO. Not a huge fan of using it inside of 48 hours. Mainly just like to see if its general evolution is holding serve. Nice to see the gfs and NAM continue the sharper trend with passing runs. Give me 2” of paste after a 30 degree temp drop and I’d be happier than a pig in shit. If the storm wants to 3K NAM my backyard, by all means.. but my expectations are low for this one. Hoping I’m far enough north for the temps and east for the qpf. Whichever area strikes that balance will see a mini jack. todays 0z suite is kinda the last global suite that really matters as mesoscale models start to become very good, but its very good to see that all of them trended postively in the way we want besides rgem i think every global / mesoscale model trended better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 06z NAM is slower with the cold air compared to the 00z NAM... though also slower with the system? 00z NAM at 12z MON had very little precip... 06z NAM says its snowing Still ends up pretty nice across the region with a lot of 2-4 looking at Kuchera... i81 corridor again crushed 06z 3k NAM OTH... um, came up empty lets say across the region with literally zero snow outside the mountains... and even there its basically <1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 06z NAM is slower with the cold air compared to the 00z NAM... though also slower with the system? 00z NAM at 12z MON had very little precip... 06z NAM says its snowing Still ends up pretty nice across the region with a lot of 2-4 looking at Kuchera... i81 corridor again crushed 06z 3k NAM OTH... um, came up empty lets say across the region with literally zero snow outside the mountains... and even there its basically Classic 3k head fake as everything else trends better. Toss 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Best gfs run yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 06z NAM 3k and HRRR (now in range) are simply too warm at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 My mind is set on seeing snow falling I have zero expectations of accumulations so if I'm to be disappointed it would be if no flakes fly from the sky. Just have to start honing in on when/if changeover might happen. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 I hope the flakes fly for the NW crew, but it's just good to see a juiced up storm. Looking like a widespread 2 inch+ rain event. Good sign as we head into our better climo period. Looks like a sloppy Ravens game.. hopefully they can run for 300. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 I hope the flakes fly for the NW crew, but it's just good to see a juiced up storm. Looking like a widespread 2 inch+ rain event. Good sign as we head into our better climo period. Looks like a sloppy Ravens game.. hopefully they can run for 300.I got Lamar at qb in a must win game for fantasy. He had been a bust this season fantasy wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Wishing all of you the very best. Everyone here deserves good snow. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Looks like 06 euro held serve? Just off of the TT maps it looks like it did. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 My head tells me to not buy this. My heart wants it to be true. The NAM surface is warm but the 850’s are cold. Heavy precip would drag that air down I would think. Who knows 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: My head tells me to not buy this. My heart wants it to be true. The NAM surface is warm but the 850’s are cold. Heavy precip would drag that air down I would think. Who knows Look at the run to run difference in surface temps with the Nam. 7 Degrees warmer across the area from 00z to 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 I’m still not buying. BL temps too warm. I’m looking at TT and it appears most models took a step back with cold air progression 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 I will say this just looking at recent runs of the GFS- that shortwave is sharper and the trough tilts negative sooner, resulting in the surface low popping further south and a bit more developed as it hits the coast. That might be enough to allow the cold to come in with significant precip still ongoing. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Advertised surface temps with moderate to heavy precip falling (snow verbatim). It would certainly require dynamic cooling to get it done. At the very least I am feeling pretty good about a couple inches of slop in PSU's yard to save winter. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 3 hours ago, MN Transplant said: 06z NAM 3k and HRRR (now in range) are simply too warm at the surface. Another reason the 3knam lost the snowier solution from 0z was at 6z it was significantly less amplified with the wave. Less precip behind the front so less cooling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Did a quick sounding check for my backyard on 06z models. gfs 34 at 1am, nam 38 at 1am, euro 36 at 1am It can def snow at 34-36, if it’s ripping. Agree with most that the NW crew will squeeze out minor accumulations, with PSU and others with more elevation probably measuring a few inches by Monday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 During overnight hours, I think you could accumulate on cold surfaces with temps of 34, maybe 35 if it’s ripping. Anything above that is probably white rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 During overnight hours, I think you could accumulate on cold surfaces with temps of 34, maybe 35 if it’s ripping. Anything above that is probably white rain. I’ve probably said this over and over… I’d love things to stick, but that’s not my goal. Goal is to have an hour or so (or more, on some NAM/GFS runs) where it is ripping and I can be on my balcony/apartment courtyard and have it feel like it can snow in this area again.That said this would stick 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: During overnight hours, I think you could accumulate on cold surfaces with temps of 34, maybe 35 if it’s ripping. Anything above that is probably white rain. Yep, but surfaces aren’t going to be super cold after a warm rain all day first. Best to keep expectations low 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 I find the euro still useful inside 48 hours. It’s the highest resolution global. The higher res models can pick up meso features better but they also can go off on tangents. The euro can be a good baseline even at short range. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 12k NAM goes bonkers. Best run yet. 996 off VA beach lol. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 12z nam is an improvement temp wise, 33 at the surface at 1am for my backyard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: 12k NAM goes bonkers. Best run yet. 996 off VA beach lol. I'm pretty sure NWS has to feed that thing quarters to run. 3 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 As 12z comes in I’m keeping an eye on something. Not only do we need to worry about boundary temps, there was a trend on the NAMs and HRR to be less amplified initially and develop the wave a little slower. HRRR barely gets it going in time to clip my area with a couple inches but further south misses out. Not because it’s not cold enough but because the wave doesn’t start to amplify in time to throw heavier precipitation into the cold side of the boundary until it’s northeast of the region. Another way to see this is by what happens further north of us. The better runs of the gfs/euro/nam for us have the axis of the heavy snow across upstate NY and NW Vermont. The newer runs of the NAM and HRRR have it across southern VT and NH because the storm amplified later and this further east. We want to see this amp up earlier and further south. ETA: my analysis was of the 6z NAMs and 12z HRRR which comes out earlier. Haven’t seen the 12z NAM yet. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 3k has flipped back to a snowier solution. Classic 06z head fake. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now