12/10-11 Disco / Obs - Rain/Snow/Wind Event

[high risk]

For the love of God, please stop showing the 10:1 maps.     This type of event with marginal temps and warm ground screams for the positive snow depth product.

[MillvilleWx]

Currently battling a bout of strep throat at the moment, so I’ve been out of it. 
 

Biggest story will be the abundance of moisture with the system which will help get some much needed water into the region to curb the drought. Not a bad thing heading into winter. 
 

As for snow, system is very dynamic, but will come down to the low-mid lvl CAA regime as the storm matures and rolls into occlusion phase. I don’t buy the crazy totals the NAM is implying, but there’s a decent chance many of us see some flakes this go around with light accumulations possible across areas along and north of I-70. Details can change over time, but this isn’t a textbook moderate snowfall for our area, but it’s one where people can get on the board. 
 

Idk if I’ll ever have any forecast for this one, so I’ll follow along and chime in when I can. Strep sucks. That is all 

[Daniel Boone]

21 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

If it was snowing that hard, roads would quickly cave. Almost 5 inches per hour? LOL. Is this Buffalo?

Thundersnow ftw !!! 

[AtlanticWx]

6 minutes ago, high risk said:

For the love of God, please stop showing the 10:1 maps.     This type of event with marginal temps and warm ground screams for the positive snow depth product.

if none of it is gonna stick, i'd rather look at the raw output of how much would be falling rates wise rather than caring about snow depth

[AtlanticWx]

so far all the 0z models have shifted towards a more negative tilt. hrrr looked like nam3k but colder and slightly less precip (would've been pretty snowy probably). gonna have to wait and see what gfs does, but positive trends continuing into 0z so far.

[mattie g]

34 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Fun to see this thread rocking with some good vibes.  Helluva lot better than the doom and gloom that some like to go with.

Exactly.

We all know that it’s less likely to rip snow for three hours and lay down 3” of mashed potatoes than it is to f*cking dump buckets and end as a few mangled flakes, but we’ve got vibes…and vibes are good right now.

It’s been a f’ing dumpster fire for the last 12 months, so let’s enjoy the relatively unrealistic NAM until tomorrow’s runs slap us with some reality!

[Daniel Boone]

If this were to pan out, Radiancewx and a couple other's would already have busted on the Seasonal Totals they are forecasting. 

[nj2va]

3 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Exactly.

We all know that it’s less likely to rip snow for three hours and lay down 3” of mashed potatoes than it is to f*cking dump buckets and end as a few mangled flakes, but we’ve got vibes…and vibes are good right now.

It’s been a f’ing dumpster fire for the last 12 months, so let’s enjoy the relatively unrealistic NAM until tomorrow’s runs slap us with some reality!

I was hoping you’d find a 3rd way of typing fuc*ing differently.  

[Scraff]

8 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Exactly.

We all know that it’s less likely to rip snow for three hours and lay down 3” of mashed potatoes than it is to f*cking dump buckets and end as a few mangled flakes, but we’ve got vibes…and vibes are good right now.

It’s been a f’ing dumpster fire for the last 12 months, so let’s enjoy the relatively unrealistic NAM until tomorrow’s runs slap us with some reality!

How much Other Half Brewing you into this evening? 

[psuhoffman]

17 minutes ago, high risk said:

For the love of God, please stop showing the 10:1 maps.     This type of event with marginal temps and warm ground screams for the positive snow depth product.

It’s not a legit winter storm thread until we get some SREF. You’re welcome. 

[Daniel Boone]

18 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Currently battling a bout of strep throat at the moment, so I’ve been out of it. 
 

Biggest story will be the abundance of moisture with the system which will help get some much needed water into the region to curb the drought. Not a bad thing heading into winter. 
 

As for snow, system is very dynamic, but will come down to the low-mid lvl CAA regime as the storm matures and rolls into occlusion phase. I don’t buy the crazy totals the NAM is implying, but there’s a decent chance many of us see some flakes this go around with light accumulations possible across areas along and north of I-70. Details can change over time, but this isn’t a textbook moderate snowfall for our area, but it’s one where people can get on the board. 
 

Idk if I’ll ever have any forecast for this one, so I’ll follow along and chime in when I can. Strep sucks. That is all 

That's rough stuff ! I hope/ pray for a speedy recovery. 

[DarkSharkWX]

GFS looks better, more negative tilt
compare gfs to nam 3km

[DarkSharkWX]

1 minute ago, DarkSharkWX said:

GFS looks better, more negative tilt
compare gfs to nam 3km

yeah way more negatilt, cooking this run

 

[NorthArlington101]

10:1 maps worth what they are, but

00z

18z

[winter_warlock]

Flood Watch

Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 816 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023 DCZ001-MDZ006-008-011-013-014-016-504-506>508-VAZ053>055-502-527- 090930- /O.NEW.KLWX.FA.A.0013.231210T1800Z-231211T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore- Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford- Southeast Harford-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Stafford-Southern Fauquier-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Including the cities of South Gate, Manassas, Falls Church, Annapolis, Silver Spring, Chantilly, Bethesda, Arnold, Severna Park, Alexandria, Aberdeen, Reston, Arlington, Gaithersburg, Reisterstown, Franconia, Turnbull, Jarrettsville, Cockeysville, Glen Burnie, Washington, Laurel, Lake Ridge, Suitland-Silver Hill, Herndon, Falmouth, Severn, Dale City, Centreville, Clinton, Columbia, Odenton, Ellicott City, College Park, Annandale, Rockville, Camp Springs, Waldorf, St. Charles, McLean, Montclair, Woodbridge, Greenbelt, Baltimore, Elkton, and Bowie 816 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of DC, including the following , District of Columbia, Maryland, including the following areas, Anne Arundel, Cecil, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Charles, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Prince Georges, Southeast Harford and Southern Baltimore, and northern Virginia, including the following areas, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Fairfax, Southern Fauquier and Stafford. * WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Storm drains and ditches may become clogged with debris. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Two to three inches of rain are expected Sunday through late Sunday night with the heaviest rains falling during the afternoon and evening. This amount of rain could cause flooding of small streams, creeks and urban areas. - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety and preparedness information PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop

[DarkSharkWX]

cobb ratio gfs

[nj2va]

GFS ticked in the right direction to see snow.  

[EastCoast NPZ]

44 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Currently battling a bout of strep throat at the moment, so I’ve been out of it. 
 

Biggest story will be the abundance of moisture with the system which will help get some much needed water into the region to curb the drought. Not a bad thing heading into winter. 
 

As for snow, system is very dynamic, but will come down to the low-mid lvl CAA regime as the storm matures and rolls into occlusion phase. I don’t buy the crazy totals the NAM is implying, but there’s a decent chance many of us see some flakes this go around with light accumulations possible across areas along and north of I-70. Details can change over time, but this isn’t a textbook moderate snowfall for our area, but it’s one where people can get on the board. 
 

Idk if I’ll ever have any forecast for this one, so I’ll follow along and chime in when I can. Strep sucks. That is all 

Have 2 kids with it all this week, so i feel for ya.   Hope you're feeling better soon.

[NorthArlington101]

Ens are obviously running out of utility, but 00z GEFS is a nice bump from 18z. Better than trending in the wrong direction.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Ens are obviously running out of utility, but 00z GEFS is a nice bump from 18z. Better than trending in the wrong direction.

Question: Why don't ensembles work as well once you get into the short range? I've heard it mentioned here but never quite understood the why.

[NorthArlington101]

Question: Why don't ensembles work as well once you get into the short range? I've heard it mentioned here but never quite understood the why.

per chat GPT (lol)

The GEFS (Global Ensemble Forecast System) and the GFS (Global Forecast System) are related, with GEFS being an ensemble system derived from GFS. In the short range, GFS tends to outperform GEFS due to its higher resolution and more sophisticated modeling techniques, providing a more detailed representation of atmospheric conditions. Ensembles like GEFS shine in longer-range forecasts where they capture a range of possible outcomes, helping account for uncertainties in the atmosphere's initial state.

[WEATHER53]

That front in 1995 kicked  off epic 95-96 

[Ji]

Ens are obviously running out of utility, but 00z GEFS is a nice bump from 18z. Better than trending in the wrong direction.

This is your storm bro

[Terpeast]

19 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

That front in 1995 kicked  off epic 95-96 

I remember, my cousin and I took a jebwalk out in that one. Will never forget it. 

And then it didn’t snow at all through the entire december, and we were complaining “it never snows here anymore”. Then… 

[NorthArlington101]

This is your storm bro

Don’t put that evil on me. Can I own the blizzard in late January?

[Ji]

Question: Why don't ensembles work as well once you get into the short range? I've heard it mentioned here but never quite understood the why.

They are lower resolution. The op becomes the strongest ensemble member 48 hours out

[Ji]

Don’t put that evil on me. Can I own the blizzard in late January?

You mean Feb 9-11? Sure but you own this one too. The northarlington storm

[AtlanticWx]

don't wanna jinx it but encouraging 0z suite so far. euro was already bullish so i wanna see how much more bullish it can get and if the NAM holds tmr

[WEATHER53]

8 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I remember, my cousin and I took a jebwalk out in that one. Will never forget it. 

And then it didn’t snow at all through the entire december, and we were complaining “it never snows here anymore”. Then… 

Went form 63 to 33 in 3 hours and heavy snow 

[psuhoffman]

25 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I remember, my cousin and I took a jebwalk out in that one. Will never forget it. 

And then it didn’t snow at all through the entire december, and we were complaining “it never snows here anymore”. Then… 

I remember getting a couple minor snows in December in northern VA. Nothing major, just a couple 1-3” type events.