jayyy Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 There was another similar notable storm in April of 2000. Same setup, wave developed long a strong cold front after a lot of rain. I think that one dropped 2-3" in this area...was like 6-12" up in northeast PA up through NY State. Was just about to mention this storm. Grew up in the Hudson Valley in NY. I remember this storm vividly. We got SHELLACKED with heavy snow after seeing a decent amount of rain earlier in the day. One of the rare times cold air caught up very quickly, allowing an additional 1” of QPF to fall as snow. Incredible storm. We also had a similar rain to snow type event on Christmas or Christmas Eve in the early 2000s. Wave formed along a cold front. Temps dropped 25+ degrees within hours and woke up to nearly a foot of snow OTG. Man, the good ole days. 1996-2010 was an absolutely incredible era for snow up that way. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Big red flag for me is there’s no real arctic air behind the system. When it’s supposed to have flipped over in the metro it’s 34f in Pittsburgh. That’s not gonna do it imoThere’s no precip falling in Pittsburgh at the time though. We don’t need deep arctic air. We need cold enough air (32-34) with precip falling. Not saying the 3k will play out as shown, but IF it did.. it can certainly snow here. Dynamic cooling does wonders. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 816 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of DC, including the following , District of Columbia, Maryland, including the following areas, Anne Arundel, Cecil, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Charles, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Prince Georges, Southeast Harford and Southern Baltimore, and northern Virginia, including the following areas, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Fairfax, Southern Fauquier and Stafford. * WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Storm drains and ditches may become clogged with debris. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Two to three inches of rain are expected Sunday through late Sunday night with the heaviest rains falling during the afternoon and evening. This amount of rain could cause flooding of small streams, creeks and urban areas. - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety and preparedness information 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Latest LWX AFD acknowledged snow might fall at lower elevations, but unlikely to accumulate with temps at 35-36. Let’s see if we trend colder though. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 At hr54, NAM is beating down the I-81 corridor. Widespread 3-5” verbatim 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: At hr54, NAM is beating down the I-81 corridor. Widespread 3-5” verbatim Yep, it’s still holding serve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: At hr54, NAM is beating down the I-81 corridor. Widespread 3-5” verbatim The NAM at range is always so f’ing weenie. Gotta love it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Heavy snow into i95 corridor at 57 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 PW snow map is lol 10:1 map has 2-4 along i95... Kuchera 1-3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 1 minute ago, yoda said: PW snow map is lol Kuchera 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 3km is even more loltastic 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 NAM somehow managed to up the ante 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 What is that 50 mile wide swath of 4 to 8 inches just west of i95 on the 3km NAM? Shows up on Kuchera and 10:1 PW maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 oh? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 1 minute ago, yoda said: What is that 50 mile wide swath of 4 to 8 inches just west of i95 on the 3km NAM? Shows up on Kuchera and 10:1 PW maps Deathbanded 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 oh my god 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 What is that 50 mile wide swath of 4 to 8 inches just west of i95 on the 3km NAM? Shows up on Kuchera and 10:1 PW maps Verbatim, those places are just far enough east to see heavy qpf linger as cold air has already worked its way into the area. The likelihood of that happening is quite low, but man.. if nearby suburbs could somehow pull that off, that’d be epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 As forum rules dictate: LOCK IT IN! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: oh? And it hasn’t even stopped snowing at hour 60 lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 oh my god^^ this @yoda Temps crash quickly while there are some epic returns overhead. 2-3+” per hour verbatim. LOL at that depiction, but that’s how you get that 4-8” swath. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 6 minutes ago, yoda said: What is that 50 mile wide swath of 4 to 8 inches just west of i95 on the 3km NAM? Shows up on Kuchera and 10:1 PW maps I’m in. All in. Let it melt within 3 hours…I don’t care. Let that sh*t rip. 5 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 WB 3K NAM with surfaces temperatures either near or above freezing the depth map would be much more realistic. I would be thrilled with an inch or two.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 3K NAM with surfaces temperatures either near or above freezing the depth map would be much more realistic. Cool to me. Unexpected and happy if we get anything. Would also mean heavy snow despite the melting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 At this point don't all models show snow falling? Whatever on the accumulations it sure looks like it might snow soon 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 3K NAM with surfaces temperatures either near or above freezing the depth map would be much more realistic. I would be thrilled with an inch or two.... If it's coming down at 4" an hour, it'll stick more than that too, honestly. The thing is it won't. NAM overampedness aside, both seem to pop that follow-up low in a good spot to keep things going after the temps crash to around freezing and the upper levels cooperate. That's the key for anything more than the T-1" of "snow" (outside our best spots) that all the other models are willing to say could happen, I think. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 WB 3K NAM with surfaces temperatures either near or above freezing the depth map would be much more realistic. I would be thrilled with an inch or two....I have a very hard time believing what the kuchera / 10:1 is spitting out (shows 7+” IMBY within the span of 3 hours LOL)… BUT… if it hypothetically snowed as hard as the 3K NAM depicts, temps being at 32-34 would be irrelevant. Those types of rates would overcome near freezing temps (32-34)Would it melt quickly? Yes. Would I give a shit? Absolutely not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 9, 2023 Author Share Posted December 9, 2023 Fun to see this thread rocking with some good vibes. Helluva lot better than the doom and gloom that some like to go with. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 I think the NAM is overdone, but it sure feels good to be tracking something while it’s only dec 8. And we’re not even in a good pattern right now. Totally different vibe than last year 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 14 minutes ago, jayyy said: I have a very hard time believing what the kuchera / 10:1 is spitting out (shows 7+” IMBY within the span of 3 hours LOL)… BUT… if it hypothetically snowed as hard as the 3K NAM depicts, temps being at 32-34 would be irrelevant. Those types of rates would overcome near freezing temps (32-34) Would it melt quickly? Yes. Would I give a shit? Absolutely not. If it was snowing that hard, roads would quickly cave. Almost 5 inches per hour? LOL. Is this Buffalo? 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 0.5" of qpf of snow.. in 1 hour tears this is some buffalo type shit, obv hella overdone but verabritm this would def get the job done and accum wouldnt be too far off the snow maps; -6 omega within DGZ w saturated column would cook 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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