Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,598
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    PublicWorks143
    Newest Member
    PublicWorks143
    Joined

12/10-11 Disco / Obs - Rain/Snow/Wind Event


nj2va
 Share

Recommended Posts

14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Ava Marie showed a picture from pre-dawn very near BWI that was clearly measurable. I drove to Elkridge near BWI around 8am and it was a trace there and then. So I think if BWI had measured at 4-6am, they would have recorded something.

She texted me about the same thing. Mostly because they had a guess in the weather center on first measureable snowfall. Tom went with 12/10, so would have won if BWI had more than a T. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

There's clearly an issue of the location of the weather station and measuring area at BWI, so why don't they just change it? Does not seem very difficult.

Little disappointed to only get about a half inch and nothing on roads after seeing some models focus the heavy band right over my area. Guessing I got into a heavier band for a half hour or so and got most of my snow from that. Knew there would be winners and losers with this. Interesting to see that just northwest of me seemed to cash in and then way down in Southern MD did pretty well.

Most importantly, PSU had a nice accumulation so winter is saved.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

lol

 

 

2 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

I was wondering about that too but maybe a lucky heavy burst?  It's just curious though right on the water.  Some good measurements in southern MD though, for example a couple inches in LaPlata (hi diatae!)

Got 1.5 in Germantown which triples last winter's total :P  MoCo schools delayed so my wife's preschool is closed.  That's a gift since she's dealing with a bad cold and does not get paid on sick days

image.png.5a7c8faf90c92ffd9c4082a150b885ad.png

Makes sense. Slightly inland away from water could lead to better accumulation. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

There's clearly an issue of the location of the weather station and measuring area at BWI, so why don't they just change it? Does not seem very difficult.

Little disappointed to only get about a half inch and nothing on roads after seeing some models focus the heavy band right over my area. Guessing I got into a heavier band for a half hour or so and got most of my snow from that. Knew there would be winners and losers with this. Interesting to see that just northwest of me seemed to cash in and then way down in Southern MD did pretty well.

Most importantly, PSU had a nice accumulation so winter is saved.

The ASOS is to support airport operations and is run by the FAA. The NWS is only able to glean information from it and has a limited say in it's location. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, HighStakes said:

Looks like 3 for the books. I fell asleep with over 2 on the ground and it snowing heavily at 3:30 a.m. going by the other posters in the area and the one spotter report 3 seems to be the consensus.

This was another case where there was a visible difference between my house and Ebb Valley when I dropped the kids off. Not as pronounced as Dec 2020 when I had 3” up here and only a coating down there but it was about 1” difference.  ~250 ft additional elevation makes a difference in these super marginal events. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, stormy said:

I usually review statistics on every event, winter and summer.

A lot of discussion Saturday and Sunday concerned the preferred model measure of total accumulation.

What I believed to be the common sense preferred measure because of marginal borderline surface conditions pre and during the event did not measure up very well in review. 

I usually relied on the Positive Snow Depth Change. In review, I found it to be consistently too low for both myself and Psu.  Of course I realize it may have been correct for "skunked" locations.  The 10:1 measure was far more accurate.

24 hours pre-event at 06 Sunday :  Stormy 2.0"  - Total PSDC -  GFS  .3"   ECMWF  1.0" 

                                                         Stormy 2.0"  -  10:1 Ratio  -  GFS 1.7"  ECMWF  2.0" 

24 hours pre-event at 06 Sunday :   Psu     3.8"  -  Total  PSDC  - GFS  .3"  ECMWF  1.4"

                                                         Psu     3.8"   -    10:1 Ratio  - GFS  3.9"  ECMWF  2.9"

This is good analysis to do. In the end a compromise seems to have been best. The 10-1 were a bit high even here.  Some runs were close but others had me at 5+. But as I expected the depth maps were low for places that did get banding. If it snows hard marginal air/ground temps can be overcome. We’ve seen this time and again. Kuchera I think was the closest of the pre made clown maps. Overall the euro did really well with this one imo. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This was another case where there was a visible difference between my house and Ebb Valley when I dropped the kids off. Not as pronounced as Dec 2020 when I had 3” up here and only a coating down there but it was about 1” difference.  ~250 ft additional elevation makes a difference in these super marginal events. 

I remember that December 2020 small event. That was by far the biggest difference for a marginal event. Then we had that nice storm a couple days later.

 

Last night was a good start and was close to being a really good storm. If we were able to get into some decent rates earlier and the precip didn't move out quite as fast this would've been a 5-6 inch snow. The flip was right on time and we got colder than modeled at its height. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, aldie 22 said:

But Arcola is just west of IAD and probably due south of you and got an inch. That said half inch to an inch seems right around the area 

Yeah, I eyeballed half an inch at 6:30 am well after precip exited east of the bay. Temp had risen back up to 36. Heavily compacted like it was almost a layer of ice when I scraped my car. 

So it could have been close to an inch, max.  LWX spotter reports had Ashburn at 0.5” as well. 

I got the lower end of the stick here, but happy that we pulled a rabbit out of a hat in a bad pattern early on. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One of my buddies in Leesburg sent me a pic at 4am with what looked like only a dusting. I'm not familiar with the VA/MD topography too much, but that's pretty wild that only a short ways to his east many saw 1.5-2". Even west in Round Hill, VA has a report of 1.5. Anyone else in Leesburg can confirm?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The ASOS is to support airport operations and is run by the FAA. The NWS is only able to glean information from it and has a limited say in it's location. 

This is very true that’s it’s not really a weather station but an airport facilities station . Most people snd even seasoned weather people think it an official weather station.  So, if the thermometers are located such that measurements and temps can easily be retrieved manually then that location will be part of the airport buildings complexes and things like can it radiate comparatively and accumulate snow comparatively are non priority issues.

I started saying this here 15 years ago and constantly got scalded so I just gave up. I had and have a lot of details from my affiliations with MIC and know what they prioritize and often got told “we ain’t here for weather weenies” 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I let the kids play outside this morning since school was delayed.  Snow cover still holding strong. 

m5dWD1u.jpg
 

Y0KuEh2.jpg

 

6fXEK3w.jpg
 

oEYKS6K.jpg
 

V1kLLbf.jpg


mtueVFv.jpg

Bvi9zpH.jpg
 

5l6qIYi.jpg

Really great pics.  You are nw of Frederick?  Our daughter is about 2 miles se of downtown Frederick and got just 0.5”. Looks like you got 3-4”?

Her child’s school was delayed also 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Really great pics.  You are nw of Frederick?  Our daughter is about 2 miles se of downtown Frederick and got just 0.5”. Looks like you got 3-4”?

Her child’s school was delayed also 

Thanks. I’m NE of Frederick. I’m on a ridge just north of Manchester in Carroll County. I ended up with 3.8 to be exact. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...